Rockets vs Warriors Odds, Picks, Props & Injury Reports (Game 3)

• The Warriors are 3-point home favorites over the Rockets in Game 3 of their first-round NBA playoff series on Saturday
• The best-of-seven series is tied 1-1 after Houston’s 109-94 victory in Game 2
• See the Rockets vs Warriors odds, picks and props below, plus betting trends and injury updates for this Western Conference matchup

The Houston Rockets took back home-court advantage with an impressive Game 2 win over the Golden State Warriors. Now the series shifts to the Bay Area for a pivotal Game 3 on Saturday inside Chase Center. Tip-off is scheduled for 8:30pm ET on ABC.

Rockets vs Warriors Odds Game 3

The Warriors are currently 3.5-point home favorites and -161 on the moneyline. The Rockets come back as +135 moneyline underdogs. The total for the game sits at 205.5 points.

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Odds as of April 26, 2025, at BetMGM Sportsbook. Unlock the BetMGM promo code to wager on the NBA Playoffs.

Rockets vs Warriors Game 3 Picks & Predictions

• Rockets vs Warriors Under 205.5 Total Points

My pick for this crucial Game 3 is the Under 205.5 total points. I expect a lower-scoring, defensive battle for several key reasons. First, there’s a clear low-scoring trend in this series, with Game 1 finishing at just 183 total points and Game 2 only getting to 203 despite an uptick in three-point shooting.

On top of that, the refs are letting players be a bit rougher than in the regular season, which slows things down and makes it harder to score. Plus, Warriors’ star Jimmy Butler is battling a pelvis injury and is iffy for the game. Even if he does play, he’s not going to be 100%, and that could really hurt Golden State’s offense.

Both teams are also really locked in defensively, with the Rockets holding the Warriors to 41.3% shooting in Game 2.

Additionally, the Under has now hit in six straight head-to-head meetings between these two teams. Golden State’s offense is really struggling, failing to top 95 points in either of the first two games. For the young Rockets, this will be the first playoff road game for budding stars like Jalen Green, Alperen Sengun and Amen Thompson, which often correlates with tighter shooting and lower scoring.

And while Houston has seen a lot of Overs hit in April overall, the heightened intensity and slower pace of playoff basketball changes that equation. Finally, my model projects this game at 202 total points, giving us a solid edge on the current 205.5 number, especially after the total ticked up based more on public perception than sharp action. Give me the Under in Game 3.

Top Rockets vs Warriors Game 3 Player Props to Bet

Those are my two favorite player props for Rockets-Warriors Game 3. I’m banking on Golden State clamping down on Houston’s young star Jalen Green after his 38-point explosion in Game 2. The bright lights of his first road playoff game could also lead to some jitters and less efficient scoring.

For Draymond Green, I don’t see him suddenly racking up assists with the Warriors’ offense looking so disjointed right now. He dished out only 1 dime in Game 2 and will have a tougher time getting his teammates going in front of a raucous Houston crowd.

Best Player Props:

• Jalen Green Under 20.5 Points (-120)
• Draymond Green Under 5.5 Assists (-140)

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Rockets vs Warriors Injury Report

Rockets:

• Jae’Sean Tate (ankle) – Out
• Jack Landale (knee) – Out

Warriors:

• Jimmy Butler (pelvis) – Questionable
• Gary Payton II (shoulder) – Questionable
• Stephen Curry (thumb) – Available

Rockets vs Warriors Betting Trends & Series History

The Under is 6-0 in the last 6 meetings between these teams. Houston is 1-4 against the spread (ATS) in their last 5 games overall. The Warriors are 2-4 ATS in their last 6 contests. Golden State is also 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games and 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 Saturday games at Chase Center.

The Warriors lead the all-time head-to-head series 136-118 in the regular season and 26-19 in the playoffs. This is the fifth time these teams have met in the postseason, with Golden State winning each of the previous four series, including the 2023 Western Conference Finals. But the Rockets took 3 of 5 matchups during the 2024-25 regular season.