Gonzaga vs Saint Mary’s Picks, Prediction & Player Props (WCC Title Game)

• Gonzaga and Saint Mary’s will meet for the WCC Tournament crown on Tuesday night in Paradise, Nevada
• The Gaels won both regular-season meetings
• Below, see my best Gonzaga vs Saint Mary’s picks and predictions, plus the full slate of player props for the WCC title game

In arguably the least-surprising news of the entire college basketball season, the Gonzaga Bulldogs (24-8, 14-4 WCC, 13-19 ATS) and Saint Mary’s Gaels (28-4, 17-1 WCC, 14-17 ATS) will square off in the finale of the 2025 WCC Tournament on Tuesday night (6:00 pm PT/9:00 pm ET) at Orleans Arena in Paradise, NV. This marks the fourth straight season that the teams have met in the conference title game. The opening Gonzaga vs Saint Mary’s odds set the Bulldogs as 1.5-point betting favorites, but the line has moved all the way to Gonzaga -3.5 as of Tuesday afternoon. The total, meanwhile, has come down from 139.5 to 137.5 in Tuesday’s college basketball odds.

Gonzaga vs Saint Mary’s Picks & Prediction

• Over 137.5 (-110) at BetMGM
• Ike over 7.5 rebounds (+105) at bet365
  

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Sascha Paruk’s 2024-25 NCAAM betting record: 39-24 (+11.25 units). All wagers 1 unit unless expressly stated otherwise.

When this line opened as roughly a pick’em last night, I threw my support behind the Bulldogs to get one back against their arch-rivals. Gonzaga rates significantly higher at KenPom (9th vs 22nd) and Haslametrics (9th vs 24th), and they played subpar basketball in their first two meetings with the Gaels, shooting just over 20% from beyond the arc over the 80 minutes. Gonzaga has ample room for improvement and, if he plays the way he did last night, senior forward Graham Ike will be the best player on the court.

Ike dominated last night’s semifinal against San Francisco, racking up 27 points and 10 rebounds in the 85-76 win, which saw the Zags pile up 50 second-half points.

Ike has already found success against Saint Mary’s excellent defense this season, finishing with 24 points and eight rebounds in his team’s 62-58 road loss in Moraga back on Feb. 1. He had 19 points and five boards in the rematch at the Kennell three weeks later, which ended in a 74-67 Gaels victory.

Gonzaga’s defense also played a starring role. The Zags finished +6 on the glass (36-30) and +6 in turnover margin (13-7), while holding the Dons to just 17-of-35 shooting from inside the arc (48.6%).

The Gaels weren’t seriously tested their semifinal matchup with a subpar Pepperdine team playing its fourth game in as many days. They opened a ten-point lead by halftime and cruised to a 74-59 victory. Concerningly, though, the Gaels shot just 15.4% from beyond the arc. Perimeter shooting isn’t Saint Mary’s strength; they connect at just 33.5% (196th in DI). But it was something they did well in the first two games against Gonzaga, connecting at 36% in the home win and 40% in the road win.

Three-point regression from the Gaels, and progression from the Zags, is one of the main reasons I expect a Gonzaga victory tonight. But I also don’t have a ton of interest in laying 3.5 points against a defense as good as Saint Mary’s. The spread is now a stay-away for me.

Instead, I’m targeting over 136.5. The last meeting between the teams, which had the same “playoff intensity” we’re going to see tonight, hit 141 points, and the KenPom projection for tonight’s game is a 72-70 Gonzaga win (142 points).

I also like the over on Ike’s rebound total at 7.5 (O +105). He’s grabbed at least nine in four of his last seven games and is averaging exactly 9.0 RPG in that span.

The Public’s Pick for Saint Mary’s vs Gonzaga

The public is backing Gonzaga to win on Tuesday night, putting 60% of moneyline handle on the Bulldogs as of 7:00 pm ET. But the Gaels are getting the vast majority of ATS handle now that the line has been bet up to 3.5 points; Saint Mary’s is currently receiving 86% of ATS handle on 85% of ATS wagers, according to the latest college basketball public betting splits.

The public also likes the over in the WCC title game, putting 63% of game-total handle on the over along with 64% of O/U tickets.

GONZ vs STM Player Props

Gonzaga vs Saint Mary’s player props from bet365 on March 11. Claim the current bet365 promo code before wagering on the 2025 WCC championship game.

Coming off his brilliant 27-point, 10-rebound, three-assist performance against San Francisco in yesterday’s semifinal, Ike (17.3 PPG, 7.5 RPG, 1.4 APG) has the highest point total of the night at 17.5, with the over slightly favored at -120. Saint Mary’s senior guard Augustus Marciulionis (14.4 PPG, 2.9 RPG, 6.1 APG), who had a team-high 15 points in his team’s 74-59 rout of Pepperdine yesterday, leads the Gaels players with a point total of just 13.5.

Gaels center Mitchell Saxen (10.3 PPG, 8.0 RPG, 1.9 APG) has the highest rebound total at 8.5 while Ike leads the Zags players at 7.5.

As has always been the case this season, Ryan Nembhard (10.8 PPG, 3.1 RPG, 10.0 APG) leads the assist totals at 8.5 O/U. Nembhard’s ten dimes per game lead the nation by a wide margin; number two, Purdue’s Braden Smith, averages 8.8 APG.