Super Bowl Trends for Chiefs vs Eagles

NFL team trends can be a lot of fun. They can also be a great help in making bets, especially when it comes to the Super Bowl—the less obscure ones, anyways. The 2025 Super Bowl sees the Kansas City Chiefs vs Philadelphia Eagles (again) at Caesars Superdome in New Orleans, Louisiana on Sunday, February 9.

Let’s say you wanted to bet on the Kansas City Chiefs to win Super Bowl 59 but aren’t sure if you want to bet them to cover the spread. STOP! A very strong Super Bowl ATS trend suggests the moneyline isn’t the play here.

Do not lock in any Super Bowl bets until you have seen these historical Super Bowl trends. (Also strongly recommend you check in frequently with the Super Bowl odds as well …)

Super Bowl Trends

You will find a mix of straight up, against the spread, and over/under Super Bowl trends throughout this list. If you’re not overly familiar with betting lingo, know that anytime you see “ATS,” it means against the spread.

1) The Team Who Wins the Super Bowl Almost Always Covers the Spread

Simply put, just the pick the winner of the Super Bowl. The team who wins the game is 49-7-2 against the spread in Super Bowl history.

Only seven teams have won the Super Bowl but failed to cover the spread:

• Rams in Super Bowl 56 (-4.5)
• Steelers in Super Bowls 43 & 10 (-7 in both)
• Patriots in Super Bowls 38 & 39 (-7 in both)
• Cowboys in Super Bowl 30 (- 13.5)
• 49ers in Super Bowl 23 (-7)

The two pushes came in Super Bowl 34 (Rams over Titans) and Super Bowl 31 (Packers over Patriots).

Last year’s Super Bowl added to this trend, as the Chiefs beat the 49ers 25-22 as underdogs.

So the general sentiment here is that if you like the favorite (Chiefs) to win, bet them against the spread (-1.5 currently). If you like the underdog (Eagles), don’t worry about taking the points; bet them on the moneyline (+110 at the time of writing this).

2) Super Bowl Underdogs Have Been Hot Against the Spread Lately

Underdogs have been hot in the last 23 Super Bowls, going 17-6 against the spread in that time. If you had bet $100 on each underdog to cover the spread in the last 23 Super Bowls, you would have profited $947.

The six favorites to cover the spread in the last 23 Super Bowls include:

1. Chiefs in Super Bowl 54
2. Patriots in Super Bowl 53
3. Patriots in Super Bowl 51
4. Packers in Super Bowl 45
5. Colts in Super Bowl 41
6. Steelers in Super Bowl 40

You can take a deeper look at Super Bowl betting data in our historical Super Bowl spreads.

The Chiefs added to this trend last year when they covered as 1.5-point underdogs against the 49ers.

3) Favorites Don’t Cover in Super Bowl Rematches

The Chiefs are 1.5-point favorites in the 2025 Super Bowl when they take on the Philadelphia Eagles.

There have not been a ton of Super Bowl rematches in the past, but the previous matchups include:

• Pittsburgh Steelers and Dallas Cowboys (1976, 1979, 1996) – Steelers covered as the favorites in 1979 but then covered as dogs in 1996
• Miami Dolphins and Washington Redskins (1973, 1983) – Washington won outright as underdogs in the rematch
• San Francisco 49ers and Cincinnati Bengals (1982, 1989) – Bengals covered as underdogs in the rematch
• Dallas Cowboys and Buffalo Bills (1993, 1994) – Cowboys covered as favorites in the rematch
• Patriots and New York Giants (2008, 2012) – Giants won outright as underdogs in the rematch
• Philadelphia Eagles and New England Patriots (2005, 2018) – Eagles won outright as dogs in the rematch
• San Francisco 49ers vs Kansas City Chiefs (2020, 2024) – Chiefs won as slight dogs in the rematch

Favorites have only covered in two of the eight rematches and both of those games included the Cowboys. Super Bowl 59 will be a rematch of Super Bowl 57 and the Eagles are the underdogs.

4) Male-Led Halftime Show Means Underdogs Cover

I’ll hold off on listing all the male-led halftime shows, since I do that below. But the only with favorite to cover in the last ten male-led performances was Super Bowl 53 (Patriots beating Rams 13-3, covering as 2.5-point favorites).

5) Underdogs Shine When Reigning Champs Make it Back

The Kansas City Chiefs are trying to repeat (three-peat in this case) as Super Bowl champions. When they won last year, they became the first repeat champions since the 2003-2004 Tom brady-led New England Patriots. Now Patrick Mahomes and company look to become the first ever back-to-back-to-back champions.

But when reigning champions make it back to the big game, the underdog tends to cover the spread. Here’s a look at the last six Super Bowls where a team had a chance to repeat as champions:

• Super Bowl 58 (49ers vs Chiefs) – the Chiefs upset the 49ers as 1.5-point underdogs
• Super Bowl 55 (Chiefs vs Buccaneers) – the Bucs upset the Chiefs as 3-point underdogs
• Super Bowl 52 (Eagles vs Patriots) – The Eagles upset the Patriots as 4.5-point underdogs
• Super Bowl 49 (Patriots vs Seahawks) – the Patriots upset the Seahawks as 1-point underdogs
• Super Bowl 39 (Patriots vs Eagles) – New England did repeat as Super Bowl champions, but the Eagles covered as 7-point underdogs
• Super Bowl 33 (Broncos vs Falcons) – Denver is the only favorite to cover in the last six Super Bowls where a team is trying to repeat, as they easily covered as 7.5-point favorites
• Super Bowl 32 (Packers vs Broncos) – Green Bay was upset by the Broncos as 11-point favorites

Unfortunately(?) for the Chiefs, they are the favorites in Super Bowl 59.

6) Underdogs Like a Low Total

Here’s a look at the last seven Super Bowls with totals less than 50: (1) Super Bowl 47, when the Ravens won outright as underdogs; (2) Super Bowl 48, when the Seahawks won outright as underdogs; (3) Super Bowl 49, when the Patriots won outright as underdogs; (4) Super Bowl 50, when the Broncos won outright as underdogs; (5) Super Bowl 52, when the Eagles won outright as underdogs; (6) Super Bowl 56, when the Bengals covered as underdogs; and (7) Super Bowl 58, when the Chiefs won outright as underdogs.

The total is once again less than 50 in Super Bowl 59.

7) Strong Rushing Performances Lead to ATS Victories

Because I like you, I’m throwing in one more bonus trend (there are still four more to come on the game’s total)! But this isn’t one that necessarily points to one side or the other prior to the game, since it is based off performance in the Super Bowl.

Nevertheless, here it is: the team who rushes for more yards in the Super Bowl is 41-14-3 against the spread.

Last year, we saw the Chiefs rush for 130 yards versus the 49ers’ 110 yards on the ground, and Kansas City covered the spread (won as the underdog). The Chiefs also outrushed the Eagles in Super Bowl 57 (158 to 115). The 49ers in Super Bowl 54 are the only team in the last six years to rush for more yards than their opponent and not cover the spread. They lost that Super Bowl to the Chiefs.

This trend is great news for the Eagles in Super Bowl 59, as Kansas City finished the regular season ranked 22nd in rushing yards, and have been outrushed in both playoff games. Philadelphia, on the other hand, finished the regular season second in rushing, have outrushed their opponents in all three playoff games, and have recorded 229+ rushing yards in each of their last two games.

8) Points Are Scored in Super Bowls with the AFC West

Four of the last five Super Bowls featuring an AFC West team went under:

• In their rematch during Super Bowl 58, the Chiefs and 49ers fell a point shy of the over
• The Chiefs and Eagles go well over their 51.5 total in Super Bowl 57
• The Chiefs and Buccaneers came up well short in Super Bowl 55
• The Chiefs and 49ers only fell a couple points shy of their 53.5 total in Super Bowl 54 (52 points scored)
• The Broncos and Panthers only combined for 34 points – the total was 43.5 – in Super Bowl 50

You have to go all the way back to 1984, though, to find the next one that went under, as Super Bowls featuring the AFC West reeled off eight straight overs, making the over 9-4 in the last 13.

The total for Super Bowl 59 is sitting at 49.5 right now.

9) Small Super Bowl Spreads Have Meant Lots of Points

With two teams that are believed to be so evenly matched, it makes sense that lots of points would be scored. Both coaches are throwing the kitchen sink at each other on offense and trying to steal a possession, knowing they’ll need all the points they can get.

The last 12 Super Bowls that had spreads equal to or less than three points were:

Recent Super Bowls with Spreads of 3 or Less

As you can see, the over has hit in seven of them. But the more recent trend has said under in four of the last five.

Super Bowl 59 sees the Chiefs favored by just 1.5 points. The total was listed at 49.5 at the time of writing this.

10) Male-Led Super Bowl Halftime Shows Call for Unders

Here’s a look at the last 14 Super Bowl halftime shows that were male-led:

• Super Bowl 58 (Usher)
• Super Bowl 56 (Dr Dre, Snoop, Eminem)
• Super Bowl 55 (The Weeknd)
• Super Bowl 53 (Maroon 5)
• Super Bowl 52 (Justin Timberlake)
• Super Bowl 50 (Coldplay)
• Super Bowl 48 (Bruno Mars)
• Super Bowl 44 (The Who)
• Super Bowl 43 (Bruce Springsteen)
• Super Bowl 42 (Tom Petty & The Heartbreakers)
• Super Bowl 41 (Prince)
• Super Bowl 40 (The Rolling Stones)
• Super Bowl 39 (Paul McCartney)
• Super Bowl 36 (U2)

Only three of those games saw their totals go over: 52 (Eagles vs Patriots), 48 (Seahawks vs Broncos), and 43 (Steelers vs Cardinals). Kendrick Lamar will perform at the Super Bowl 59 halftime show and the total is set at 49.5.

11) Super Bowls on FOX Result in Points

Looking to the last five Super Bowl broadcast on FOX, four of them have gone over the game’s total. Here’s a quick look:

• SB57 / 2023 – KC vs PHI – Cov = AFC & Dog Total = Over
• SB54 / 2020 – SF vs KC – Cov = AFC & Fav Total = Under
• SB51 / 2017 – NE vs ATL – Cov = AFC & Fav Total = Over
• SB48 / 2014 – SEA vs DEN – Cov = NFC & Dog Total = Over
• SB45 / 2011 – PIT vs GB – Cov = NFC & Fav Total = Over

Super Bowl 59 will also be broadcast on FOX and the total is 49.5 at the time of writing this.

12) Teams Wearing White Jerseys Have Edge in Super Bowl

This is one of the strongest, yet most obscure, Super Bowl trends you will find! The team wearing their white jerseys has won 16 of the last 20 Super Bowls now.

The only three teams (one of them has accomplished this feat twice) to win a Super Bowl in the last 20 years without wearing their white jerseys were the:

1. Green Bay Packers in Super Bowl 45
2. Philadelphia Eagles in Super Bowl 52
3. Kansas City Chiefs in Super Bowl 54 & 58

Last year’s designated home team, the Kansas City Chiefs, chose to wear their red jerseys, and they proved (yet again) they are above this trend.

This year, the Eagles had the decision on which jerseys to wear as the home team, and they chose green, in spite of not only this trend, but also losing to the Chiefs in Super Bowl 57 while wearing green. So, it will be the Chiefs wearing white and on the right side of this trend in Super Bowl 59.

13) Favorites Hold a Hefty Advantage in Super Bowl History

Favorites absolutely dominated the early Super Bowls, as only three underdogs won in the first 14 years. Entering Super Bowl 59, favorites are 37-21 in the championship game.

You can see who the favorite was each year with our past Super Bowl betting lines. The Chiefs are listed as the favorites over the Eagles in Super Bowl 59.

This trend has recently reversed, though …

14) Underdogs Have the Edge in Recent Super Bowls

Underdogs have had a lot of success in the Super Bowl lately. Looking to the last 13 big games, underdogs have won nine of them outright.

The Los Angeles Rams, New England Patriots, and Kansas City Chiefs are the only teams who have won the Super Bowl as the favorite in the last 13 years —New England did it in Super Bowl 51 and 53.

The Kansas City Chiefs are favored to win the 2025 Super Bowl, making the Philadelphia Eagles the underdogs.

15) Super Bowl Experience Doesn’t Matter

So much for experience matters, right? The team with fewer Super Bowl-experienced players has gone on to win ten of the last 18 Super Bowls.

With the Chiefs and Eagles having met in the Super Bowl just two years ago, both sides have a fair amount of players with Super Bowl experience. The Chiefs also played in the big game last year, though.

Both teams have eight offensive starters with Super Bowl experience, but all 11 of the Chiefs starting defenders were on their Super Bowl team last year (and some in previous Super Bowl appearances as well), while Philadelphia only has six defensive starters with Super Bowl experience. If you get into the backups on both rosters, Kansas City has the advantage there too.

So, the Chiefs will serve as the more Super Bowl-experienced team (again).

16) AFC Wins Super Bowls in February

Super Bowl 36 marked the first time the NFL’s championship game was played in February. It has only been played in January once since then.

The AFC hopes the game remains in February moving forward, as they are 14-8 in Super Bowls played in the month of February.

Super Bowl 59 will take place Sunday, February 9th.

17) AFC West Teams in the Super Bowl Means Upset

Underdogs have won the recent Super Bowls that feature a team from the AFC West – Denver Broncos, Kansas City Chiefs, Las Vegas Raiders, or Los Angeles Chargers.

Here’s a look at the last nine Super Bowls that have included a team from the AFC West:

• Super Bowl 58 (Chiefs beat the 49ers as 1.5-point underdogs)
• Super Bowl 57 (Chiefs beat the Eagles as 1.5-point dogs)
• Super Bowl 55 (Buccaneers beat Chiefs as 3-point dogs)
• Super Bowl 54 (Chiefs beat 49ers as 1.5-point favorites)
• Super Bowl 50 (Broncos beat Panthers as 4.5-point dogs)
• Super Bowl 48 (Seahawks beat Broncos as 2-point dogs)
• Super Bowl 37 (Bucs beat Raiders as 4-point dogs)
• Super Bowl 33 (Broncos beat Falcons as 7.5-point favorites)
• Super Bowl 32 (Broncos beat Packers as 11-point dogs)

The Chiefs overcame this trend four years ago against the 49ers, winning as a favorite in a Super Bowl that included an AFC West team, but advanced this trend in Super Bowls 55, when they lost as favorites, 57 and 58, when they won as underdogs. They serve as the favorite in Super Bowl 59, though.

18) NFC Likes Super Bowls in Domes

The NFC has enjoyed when Super Bowls are played indoors. They are now 16-7 when the game is held indoors, as we have most recently seen the Rams beat the Bengals in Super Bowl 56 at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, the Patriots beat the Rams in Super Bowl 53 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, and the Eagles beat the Patriots in Super Bowl 52 at US Bank Stadium in Minneapolis.

The NFC did lose Super Bowl 57 at State Farm Stadium (a dome) in Glendale, Arizona, as well as Super Bowl 58 at Allegiant Stadium (a dome) in Paradise, Nevada. Super Bowl 59 will also be played in a dome – the Caesars Superdome in New Orleans, Louisiana.

19) Underdogs Like a Male-Led Halftime Show

The last eight Super Bowls to feature a male-led halftime show were:

• Super Bowl 58 (Usher) – the Chiefs beat the 49ers as underdogs
• Super Bowl 56 (Snoop, Dre, Eminem) – the Rams beat the Bengals as favorites
• Super Bowl 55 (The Weeknd) – the Buccaneers upset the Chiefs
• Super Bowl 53 (Maroon 5) – the Patriots beat the Rams as favorites
• Super Bowl 52 (Justin Timberlake) – the Eagles upset the Patriots
• Super Bowl 50 (Coldplay) – the Broncos upset the Panthers
• Super Bowl 48 (Bruno Mars) – the Seahawks upset the Broncos
• Super Bowl 44 (The Who) – the Saints upset the Colts

As you see, underdogs won six of those eight games, with the Rams & Patriots serving as the only favorites to win. Super Bowl 59 sees Kendrick Lamar performing at halftime.

20) NFC Likes a Packed Super Bowl Stadium

Super Bowls 48 (Seahawks over Broncos), 45 (Packers over Steelers), and 44 (Saints over Colts) all had at least 72K people in the stands and were all won by the NFC. It’s not clear whether the Caesars Superdome will be completely full, it does have the capacity to seat 83,000 fans.

21) Underdogs Thrive with Low Totals

The last eight Super Bowls that meet this criteria are:

• Super Bowl 58 where the Chiefs upset the 49ers when the over.under was 49.5
• Super Bowl 56 where the favored Rams beat the Bengals when the over/under was set at 48.5
• Super Bowl 52 where the Eagles upset the Patriots when the over/under was set at 49
• Super Bowl 50 where the Broncos upset the Panthers when the over/under was set at 43
• Super Bowl 49 where the Patriots upset the Seahawks when the over/under was set at 47.5
• Super Bowl 48 where the Seahawks upset the Broncos when the over/under was set at 47.5
• Super Bowl 47 where the Ravens upset the 49ers when the over/under was set at 48

The total in Super Bowl 59 is currently set at 49.5.

22) FOX Favors the AFC in Super Bowls

The AFC has the recent edge when it comes to Super Bowls broadcast by FOX. They have actually won each of the last three on FOX, as well as six of the last nine, but are 6-4 all-time on FOX. Here’s a look at the ten Super Bowls on FOX:

• Super Bowl 57 – Chiefs beat the Eagles
• Super Bowl 54 – Chiefs beat the 49ers
• Super Bowl 51- Patriots beat the Falcons
• Super Bowl 48 – Seahawks get a win for the NFC, dominating the Broncos
• Super Bowl 45 – Packers get a win for the NFC, narrowly defeating the Steelers
• Super Bowl 42 – Giants upset the Patriots, scoring a win for the NFC
• Super Bowl 39 – the Patriots beat the Eagles
• Super Bowl 36 – the Patriots stun the Rams
• Super Bowl 33 – the Broncos beat the Falcons to repeat
• Super Bowl 31 – the Packers win the first Super Bowl broadcast on FOX, beating the Patriots

23) Favorites Show Up in Louisiana Super Bowls

Here’s a list of the ten Super Bowls played in Louisiana, which is where Super Bowl 59 will be played:

• Super Bowl 4 – the Vikings were upset by the Chiefs
• Super Bowl 6 – the Cowboys crushed the Dolphins as favorites
• Super Bowl 9 – the favored Steelers beat the Vikings
• Super Bowl 12 – the Cowboys beat the Broncos as favorites
• Super Bowl 15 – the Raiders upset the Eagles
• Super Bowl 20 – the heavily-favored Bears dominated the Patriots
• Super Bowl 24 – the heavily-favored 49ers dominated the Broncos
• Super Bowl 31 – the Packers beat the Patriots as 14-point favorites
• Super Bowl 36 – the Rams were upset by the Patriots
• Super Bowl 47 – the Ravens upset the 49ers

As you can see, favorites hold a 6-4 advantage in Louisiana, though underdogs have won each of the last two.

24) Trying to Repeat Is Hard

There are only eight teams who have won consecutive Super Bowl titles, with the Steelers accomplishing the feat twice. Many others have had the opportunity to repeat, but fell short in the championship game. Here’s a look at the 15 times where Super Bowl champions made it back to the big game:

• Super Bowl 58 – the defending champion Chiefs repeated as they defeated the 49ers
• Super Bowl 55 – the defending champion Chiefs lost to the Buccaneers
• Super Bowl 52 – the defending champion Patriots lost to the Eagles
• Super Bowl 49 – the Seahawks repeat bid came up short against the Patriots in dramatic fashion
• Super Bowl 39 – the Patriots repeated as champions, defeating the Eagles
• Super Bowl 33 – the Broncos hammered the Falcons to repeat as Super Bowl champions
• Super Bowl 32 – the Packers attempt at winning back-to-back was thwarted by the Broncos
• Super Bowl 28 – the Cowboys made good on their second attempt at repeating, beating the Bills for a second straight year
• Super Bowl 24 – the 49ers won their second straight championship in 1990, demolishing the Broncos 55-10
• Super Bowl 18 – Washington could not add their name to the list of repeat champions, falling to the Raiders in the Super Bowl
• Super Bowl 14 – the Steelers repeated as champions again, beating the Los Angeles Rams to hoist the Lombardi for a second straight season
• Super Bowl 13 – the Cowboys failed to repeat, losing to the Steelers in this one
• Super Bowl 10 – the Steelers became the third franchise to win back-to-back titles, beating the Cowboys in the second one
• Super Bowl 8 – the Miami Dolphins knocked off the Vikings to win back-to-back championships
• Super Bowl 2 – the Packers won the first two Super Bowls

The Chiefs will be attempting to repeat again, but this time it’s a threepeat, which is something no one has ever done.

25) Regular-Season Wins Mean Nothing in Super Bowl

*The New England Patriots and Philadelphia Eagles had identical 13-3 records when they met in Super Bowl 52, as did the Philadelphia Eagles and Kansas City Chiefs (14-3 records) in Super Bowl 57; this is why there are missing wins/losses.

Apparently it’s true when you hear the announcers say, “it doesn’t matter how they got here”. The team with the worse regular season record is 14-3 in the last 19 Super Bowls.

The 2021 Los Angeles Rams (Super Bowl 56), 2016 New England Patriots (Super Bowl 51) and 2008 Pittsburgh Steelers (Super Bowl 43) are the only three teams in the last 19 years who possessed a better regular-season record than their Super Bowl opponent and went on to win the game.

The Chiefs finished the regular season 15-2, tying them for the league-best record, while the Eagles were only 14-3. So, advantage Philadelphia here.

26) The AFC Has the Edge in Recent Super Bowls

This trend looked even stronger four years ago, prior to the NFC winning two of the last four Super Bowls. Nevertheless, the NFC teams to win a Super Bowl in the last 12 years are the:

1. Los Angeles Rams, who beat the Cincinnati Bengals 23-20 in Super Bowl 56
2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who took down the Chiefs in Super Bowl 55
3. Seattle Seahawks, who dismantled the Denver Broncos in Super Bowl 48
4. Philadelphia Eagles, who beat the New England Patriots in Super Bowl 52

The Kansas City Chiefs are the AFC champions, and will look to threepeat as Super Bowl champions.

The Eagles, Falcons, Panthers, 49ers (three times), Rams, and even those mighty Seahawks (Super Bowl 49) have fallen victim to AFC teams in this timeframe.

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If you’re new to betting and want to join the (likely) thousands of others who will dive into a new sportsbook for the Super Bowl, be sure to read the following first:

• Super Bowl Betting Promotions
• Super Bowl Betting Apps
• Where to Bet on the Super Bowl
• Types of Super Bowl Bets
• Super Bowl Prop Bets Explained