Tour de France Stage 10 Odds, Picks and Predictions

• A sprint finish is likely when the Tour de France resumes with Stage 10 (Tuesday, July 6) after Monday’s rest day
• Tuesday’s 186-kilometer course between Albertville and Valence is mostly flat
• Mark Cavendish has proven himself in sprints thus far, but does his price make him a bet on or against?

After the longest stage of the Tour de France in 20 years, followed by two strenuous days in the mountains, riders deserved Monday’s off-day. Tuesday, things ramp back up with what appears to be a day for the sprinters.

On Sunday, in cold and rainy conditions, Ben O’Connor broke away from an attack group of three and easily took Stage 9. Richard Carapaz attacked Tadej Pogačar on the final climb of the day, and not only didn’t it work, Pogačar responded and rolled by, extending his lead over all of the reasonable GC contenders.

There isn’t likely to be a ton of activity among top GC riders when Tuesday’s relatively tame test begins (7:20 am ET). Oddsmakers and fans alike have watched the resurgence of Mark Cavendish this year in sprint stages. He is a heavy favorite (+125) to take the day.

Let’s check the odds for Tuesday and examine where betting value is present.

Tour de France Stage 6 Odds

Odds as of July 5th.

Two major tests have come on this year’s Tour, and while Pogacar didn’t win either of the mountain stages, he gained significant time on his GC rivals in both. On top of that he won the Individual Time Trial. When you take the first nine stages in totality, Pogacar has dominated the race.

While the failure of Primoz Roglic and Geraint Thomas, and injury to Caleb Ewan have been major storylines, so too has the resurrection of Cavendish. Perhaps the greatest sprinter of all time, he didn’t ride in the Tour in 2019 or 2020, and wasn’t going to be in the race this year. An injury to Sam Bennett got Cavendish to the start line, and he has turned back the clock. When Cavendish triumphed on Stage 4, it was his first Tour victory since 2016. Then he backed it up by taking Stage 6.

Pogacar holds a 2:01 lead over O’Connor in the GC battle. Five other riders are less than six minute behind. Rigoberto Uran is in a podium position at this stage, 5:18 off the pace. He is followed by Jonas Vingegaard (5:32), Carapaz (5:33), Enric Mas (5:47) and Wilco Kelderman (5:58).

In the Green Jersey race Cavendish has 168 points, which is 38 more than Michael Matthews, and 47 ahead of Sonny Colbrelli.

Tuesday’s course has one challenge, the Col de Couz. It comes about a third of the way into the day and is a Category 4 climb. The 7.4 kilometres at 2.8% is far from daunting after a day of rest. Because it is situated during the first half of the day, sprinters should have no issue reassembling for a contested finish. André Greipel and Peter Sagan have won Tour stages that finished in this area over the last several years.

Let’s discuss some top contenders.

Favorites

Not only is Ewan out of the race, but so too are Tim Merlier and Arnaud Démare. Yes, there are many capable sprinters remaining, but Cavendish is the clear favorite at this point.

As if he could possibly need any motivation, Cavendish has now won 32 Tour stages, which is second in the all time annals to Eddy Merckx (34). At the age of 36, who knows how many more years Cavendish will compete. This is one of five flat stages remaining. There is no question Cavendish wants two more wins, preferably three.

Contenders

Coming into this year’s race Team Jumbo–Visma was all about Roglic. He crashed early on, was never the same, and abandoned before Sunday’s action. That was interesting timing because teammate Wout Van Aert entered Stage 9 in second place. While Van Aert lost more than a half hour on Sunday, he is much more suited to winning sprint and hybrid stages.

Van Aert won a stage or two in his first two Tour’s, and his chances of getting one before this year’s race ends are pretty strong too. Particularly with Roglic gone, Jumbo will really be supporting Van Aert’s bid to win the day.

Nacer Bouhanni seems due. In three sprints this year, he has finished second once and third twice. He has won six career Grand Tour stages, but never at the Tour de France, and he hasn’t gotten to the line first since 2018.

Bouhanni’s career has been marred by several incidents, and there was some question about whether he would be allowed on this year’s Tour after a suspension from his actions at the Tour de Pologne. While you may or may not like him, that does not change the fact he has the resume, is riding well, and should be in the mix.

Longshot

It is hard to downplay how incredible Sonny Colbrelli has been in this year’s race. A sprinter by trade, he finished third on Sunday. He was in the mix because he wanted Green Jersey points, and then felt so good he just kept on peddling.

The veteran Italian has never won a Grand Tour stage, but is having an amazing 2021. He won the Points Classification at the Tour de Romandie and Critérium du Dauphiné, taking stages in both events. Colbrelli is riding really well, and maybe the uphill early in this stage works to his advantage.