Tour de France Stage 3 Odds, Picks and Predictions

• The first sprinting day at this year’s Tour de France takes place during Stage 3 (Monday, June 28)
• The 182.9 kilometres trek from Lorient to Pontivy is likely to finish with a bunch sprint
• Can anybody challenge Caleb Ewan on Monday? Who is the best bet?

The first two days of this years Tour de France were designed for punchers. It was no surprise when Julian Alaphilippe and Mathieu van der Poel got the job done. Sprinters should take center stage on Monday and Tuesday. So who is the quickest in this year’s field?

With last year’s green jersey winner Sam Bennett out because of injury, Caleb Ewan would seem to have an advantage. That said, Tim Merlier went head-to-head with Ewan several times last year. And what about Mark Cavendish as a wildcard? He is back in the race after a two year absence, a last minute replacement for Bennett. Cavendish has won 30 Tour stages.

Monday’s route is not completely flat, but there are only two Category 4 obstacles. Oddsmakers favor Ewan (+180) when Stage 3 gets going (7:20am EST) but he’s not the only realistic option, and there are a couple of prices worth seriously considering. Let’s examine the odds.

Tour de France Stage 3 Odds

Odds as of June 27th

The odds on Stage 1 and 2 this year were right. The courses set up for Alaphilippe and van der Poel, and both made decisive moves late to pull away and earn victories. On Sunday van der Poel soloed to victory during the final KM, and with time bonuses added also took the overall lead.

The lead is eight ticks with Alaphilippe in second place. Race favorite Tadej Pogacar is 13 seconds back, and last year’s runner up Primoz Roglic is 14 seconds off the pace. Wilco Kelderman is in the fifth spot, 24 seconds behind van der Poel. The leading rider from perennial top outfit Team Ineos is Richard Carapaz. He is tied for 17th place, 31 seconds back of the lead.

Monday’s route begins in the same area where Peter Sagan began his sprint victory on Stage 5 in 2018. Sagan could be a factor this time too. Neither Category 4 climb, one at the midway mark of the stage, and the other towards the end, are overly long or steep. The approach to the finish line by Château des Rohan is downhill.

Let’s consider some reasonable options for Monday’s sprint.

The Favorite

They call Ewan “The Pocket Rocket” and it is hard to deny how fast he is. In his first two Tours he won five stages, and he just took two sprint stages at the Giro before withdrawing to conserve energy.

The 26 year old Aussie also won two stages at this year’s Tour of Belgium, and finished second at Milan–San Remo.

Contenders

This is just the second grand tour for Merlier, who is having a tremendous year. He took a stage at the Giro d’Italia, and has won five one day races since then.

The 2019 Belgium National Champ, Merlier is riding his best now and there is no question he is significant competition for Ewan.

Veteran Arnaud Démare is having a very strong season. He won April’s La Roue Tourangelle, and last month’s Boucles de la Mayenne.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xHBZ-RhCVPQ

Démare is riding in his fifth tour, and four times has participated in the Giro. He has seven individual stage victories in those two races.

Cavendish is now 36 years old and retirement seemed possible not long ago. He recently showed that he still has it, winning four stages at the Tour of Turkey.

One of the greatest sprinters of all time, it is unclear whether Cavendish can compete at this level right now. That said, if he looks good on Monday, his odds will drop dramatically for sprints the rest of the way.

Speaking of veterans, Peter Sagan should never be counted out. While pure sprints are not what he does best, the seven time Green Jersey winner at the Tour is crafty and opportunistic.

Sagan won the Points Classification at the Giro this year, and has secured 12 career Tour de France stage victories.

Longshot

In contrast to the Cavedish and Sagan types, Cees Bol is young and mostly unproven. With fresh legs he won Stage 2 this year at Paris–Nice.

A 25 year old from the Netherlands, this is Bol’s third Tour de France. Last year he finished among the Top 10 in four different stages.

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