Zhizhen Zhang vs Alexander Karatsev Odds & Prediction – Madrid Open Quarterfinals

• World #121 Aslan Karatsev is the -178 favorite over world #99 Zhizhen Zhang in their ATP Madrid Open quarterfinal on Thursday, May 4
• Both players defeated players ranked in the world top 10 to win their Round of 16 matches
• Each player has beaten three seeded players to get to this stage of the tournament, but who is the best bet in our Zhang vs Karatsev prediction?

At the ATP Madrid Open, Zhizhen Zhang and Aslan Karatsev are like Dante, the forlorn convenience store worker in the Kevin Smith cult classic film Clerks. They’re not supposed to be here today. It will be Karatsev who is the pick to keep on going. Oddsmakers have set him as the -178 favorite to defeat Zhang in the Zhang vs Karatsev odds.

Zhang, barely in the ATP top 100 at #99, got to the Madrid Open quarterfinals by toppling world #10 Taylor Fritz in the Round of 16. World #121 Karatsev went even better, ousting world #3 Daniil Medvedev.

Each player has sent three seeded players packing en route to their quarterfinal showdown.

Zhizhen Zhang vs Aslan Karatsev Odds

At +150 Zhang is given an underdog betting line in the ATP Madrid odds even though he’s the higher-ranked player. The spread is -2.5 in favor of Karatsev. The over/under on the match total is set at 22.5 games. This match is slated for a 5:00am ET start on Thursday, May 4.

Odds as of May 2 at FanDuel Sportsbook.

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Karatsev Crashes Out Countryman Medvedev

While toppling an in-form Medvedev 7-6(7-1), 6-4, Karatsev served notice that he’s definitely back on top of his game. He’s a three-time ATP Tour tournament winner who was ranked #14 in the world a little over a year ago, but had slumped to as low as #129.

Aslan Karatsev on beating Daniil Medvedev in Madrid: “Feeling great, playing well. I just have to focus every match. I’ll be ready for next round. I was struggling last year so I’m coming this year in middle of the year. I’m really happy with my game so we’ll see what’s going on” pic.twitter.com/HYPcJhplue

— The Tennis Letter (@TheTennisLetter) May 2, 2023

Karatsev smashed 27 winners in the match, compared to eight for #2 seed Medvedev. He’d previously taken out #16 seed Alex de Minaur 6-3, 4-6, 6-4 and #23 seed Botic van de Zandschulp 6-2, 7-5.

Karatsev is through to the quarterfinals for the first time since an ATP 250 event in Pune, India in January. He got to the semifinals of that tournament. This will be his first ATP Masters 1000 quarterfinal appearance.

A Week of Firsts for Zhang

Zhang survived three match points to overcome #8 seed Fritz 3-6, 7-6(7-5), 7-6(10-8). He becomes the first Chinese player to reach the quarterfinals of an ATP Masters 1000 tournament. Zhang has won three consecutive final set tie-breaks.

It was Zhang’s first-ever win over a top-10 opponent on his third try. In the Round of 16, he beat world #13 Cameron Norrie , the #11 seed 2-6 7-6(7-2), 7-6(7-2). That was his first win over a player ranked in the top 20. Canadian Denis Shapovalov, the #21 seed, was beaten 6-7(4-7), 6-4, 7-6(7-1) in the Round of 32.

Zhang vs Karatsev Match History

Should Zhang beat Karatsev, he’ll become the first Chinese player to crack the top 50 of the world rankings.

Karatsev brings a decisive power game and delivers consistent depth on his groundstrokes. His barrage of baseline hitting was able to throw off Medvedev, one of the best defensive players in the game today.

Zhang is literally living on the edge in Madrid. He’s 6-1 in tiebreakers, winning tie-breaks to take five of his last seven sets.

Zhang vs Karatsev Head-to-Head

Zhang vs Karatsev Prediction

It’s been awhile for Karatsev to be playing on this stage at an ATP Masters event, but at least he’s been there and done that. A run to the Australian Open semifinals as a qualifier in 2021 in his first career Grand Slam event enabled him to launch that climb to 14th in the world rankings. He’s also 6-7 all-time in matches against top-10 players.

Zhizhen Zhang on facing Aslan Karatsev in Madrid: “You know what, I’ll tell you a secret. We had a practice and I lost 6-0 to Karatsev. 😂 Again, I’ll do my best. Here, everyone is a great player, huge players. I’ll try to do the best I can do.”

This guy is so humble. pic.twitter.com/jKo0KkVjbt

— The Tennis Letter (@TheTennisLetter) May 2, 2023

On the other hand, this is all new to Zhang. He’d never beaten a top-20 player, let alone a top-10 player prior to this tournament. It’s the first time he’s ever advanced beyond the third round of an ATP Masters 1000 event.

At this stage of a major tournament, experience makes a huge difference. On top of that, Karatsev is playing a lot like that guy who used to be on the cusp of the top 10 in the world rankings.

Zhang vs Karatsev Pick: Karatsev (-178); Karatsev 2-1 (+270)