Pablo Carreño Busta vs Daniil Medvedev Odds & Prediction – Olympic Men’s Tennis Quarterfinals
By Stephanie Myles in Tennis
Published:
- No. 2 Daniil Medvedev vs No. 6 Pablo Carreño Busta is the only quarterfinal that went according to form
- The match will take place at approximately 5:00 pm Tokyo time on Thursday (3:30 am EST)
- Medvedev is a strong favorite, but Carreño Busta won their only match on outdoor hard courts
To the great relief of Daniil Medvedev, the IOC finally decreed that the Olympic tennis event would begin later in the day, starting Thursday.
As it is, the players have been dropping like flies in the extreme heat and humidity, although Medvedev managed to come through his third round match on Wednesday.
Pablo Carreño Busta vs Daniil Medvedev Odds
| Player | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| [6] Pablo Carreño Busta (ESP) | +4.5 (-145) | +260 | O 21.5 (-115) |
| [2] Daniil Medvedev (RUS) | -4.5 (+105) | -350 | U 21.5 (-115) |
Odds as of July 28 at DraftKings
Medal Shot at Stake
A win in this quarterfinal will give either Medvedev or Carreño Busta a spot in the semifinals – and a shot at a medal.
Medvedev had been expected to be here – right behind heavy favorite Novak Djokovic in the pre-tournament odds.
For his part, Carreño Busta was way down the list at +6500, despite being the No. 6 seed.
Medvedev Limps Through Third-Round Win Over Fognini
Both Medvedev and Fabio Fognini, the No. 15 seed, had their issues in an 11 am match Wednesday that ended 6-2, 3-6, 6-2 for the Russian.
In the first set, Medvedev called the physio because he was having trouble breathing.
In the second set, it was no better.
a very metal moment in the Olympic tennis just now as Medvedev casually asks what happens if he dies on the court pic.twitter.com/kotZxePtEw
— Timothy Burke (@bubbaprog) July 28, 2021
“I just had darkness in my eyes, like between every point I didn’t know what to do to feel better. I was bending over, and I couldn’t get my breathing together. I was ready to just fall down on the court,” Medvedev said.
On the court, asked by the chair umpire if he could continue, Medvedev was dire.
“I’m a fighter, I will finish the match, but I can die,” he said. “If I die, the ITF (International Tennis Federation) is going to take responsibility?”
He also called the trainer for his left arm and his thigh. It’s hard to know how well he can recover in 24 hours.
Pablo Carreño Busta vs Daniil Medvedev Match History
| Year | Tournament | Surface | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | Mallorca (SF) | Grass | 3-6, 6-3, 6-2 | Medvedev |
| 2018 | Paris Masters (R64) | Indoor Hard | 6-2, 6-2 | Medvedev |
| 2018 | Indian Wells (R32) | Outdoor Hard | 6-1, 7-5 | Carreño Busta |
| 2017 | Moscow (R16) | Indoor Hard | 6-3, 6-3 | Medvedev |
Carreño Busta in Straight Sets vs Koepfer
Carreño Busta also had an 11 am start time.
But things were far less dramatic in his 7-6 (7), 6-3 win over unseeded Dominic Koepfer.
Pablo Carreno Busta rallies to defeat Marin Cilic, 5-7, 6-4, 6-4 in Tokyo.
The Spaniard didn't have the best preparation to win on the Olympic hardcourts, having just won a title on clay and then hopping a 14-hour flight to another continent. But he's making it work! pic.twitter.com/aALEjinyXC
— Tick Tock Tennis (@TickTockTennis) July 26, 2021
The 30-year-old Spaniard has had a good draw. He defeated American Tennys Sandgren in straight sets.
Then, faced with the dangerous floater Marin Cilic, he got through in three sets, helped by the fact that Cilic had struggled through a marathon match in the first round in which he almost coughed up a 5-0 third-set lead.
After that came Koepfer. The German came through a section in which No. 9 seed Félix Auger-Aliassime was knocked out by Max Purcell, an alternate for the injured Andy Murray.
Pablo Carreño Busta vs Daniil Medvedev Head-to-Head
| 30 (July 12, 1991) | Age | 25 (Feb. 11, 1996) |
| Gijon, Spain | Birthplace | Moscow, Russia |
| 6-2 | Height | 6-6 |
| 6 | Career ATP Singles Titles | 11 |
| No. 10 (Sept. 11, 2017) | Career High Ranking | No. 2 (March 15, 2021 |
| No. 11 | Current Ranking | No. 2 |
| $11,810,701 | Career Prize Money | $16,638,415 |
| 26-9 | 2021 Won/Loss record | 32-8 |
| 1 | Career ATP Head to Head | 3 |
Medvedev Leads Head-to-Head
Despite being a Spaniard, Carreño Busta’s best surface is actually hard courts. He’s a two-time US Open semifinalist who probably should have made the final last summer.
Carreño Busta was up two sets to none on Alexander Zverev, before falling in five.
The courts in Tokyo are said to be slow, so Carreño Busta’s win over Medvedev on the slow, gritty courts at Indian Wells is the best comparison.
But their situations were different then. Carreño Busta was ranked about where he is now, at No. 14. Medvedev was still outside the top 50. He’s now at the top of the game.
It’s still expected to be 29C – with 71 percent humidity – when the two get on court. So not much different than the conditions that nearly “killed” Medvedev Wednesday.
The match sets up as two of the best backhands in the business going head-to-head. But Medvedev has a much bigger serve and a more explosive forehand.
The wild card is how his body holds up. If Carreño Busta can extend things, he has a good shot.
Best Bet: Carreño Busta in three sets (+650)
Sports Writer
Stephanie gets the straight dope from the tennis insiders. On court, she has represented her country internationally. A BA in journalism led to years on the MLB beat and a decade covering tennis globally. She's written for Postmedia, the Guardian, the New York Times and also publishes OpenCourt.ca.
