Madison Keys vs Aryna Sabalenka Predictions, Odds & Best Bets (Australian Open Final)

• American Madison Keys has reached her second career Grand Slam final at the 2025 Australian Open
• After beating world #2 Iga Swiatek, Keys will face #1 Aryna Sabalenka in the final
• See the Madison Keys vs Aryna Sabalenka odds, predictions, and best bets

Eight years removed from her first Grand Slam final, #19 Madison Keys has advance to the championship match at the 2025 Australian Open, where she will face world #1 and three-time major-champion Aryna Sabalenka, who has won in Melbourne each of the last two years. To no one’s surprise, the two-time defending champ has opened as a heavy favorite. Keys and Sabalenka are scheduled to meet on Rod Laver Court on Saturday, January 25, start time TBD.

Madison Keys vs Aryna Sabalenka Odds

The opening Keys vs Sabalenka odds list the Belarusian as a -380 betting favorite with Keys coming back as a +300 underdog to win her first-ever Grand Slam title.

DRAFTKINGS SPORTSBOOK

Sign Up Today & Receive Up to
$1,050 in Bonuses!

LOCK IN PROMO

SIGNUP PROMO

SIGN UP
& GET $1,050

BONUS BETS + DEPOSIT BONUS

GET PROMO

The game spread favors Sabalenka by 4.5, though bettors will have to lay -130 juice on Keys to get her at +4.5 games. The total is currently sitting at 21.5 with -120 odds on the over and a -110 price on the under.

Keys faced even bigger odds in her semifinal matchup against Iga Swiatek, who was a -600 betting favorite to beat the American. All appeared to be in hand for the Polish superstar after taking the first set 7-5, but Keys battled back to dominate the second set, 6-1, before a thrilling 7-6(8) tiebreaker in the third and deciding set.

Keys broke Swiatek eight times in the match while battling off 10 of 16 break points against her own serve.

Keys’ semifinal win was the fourth time in six Aussie Open matches that she’s had to go the full three sets. But that’s not terribly surprising looking at her quality of competition. In her last four matches, the #19 seed beat #10 Danielle Collins (6-4, 6-4), #6 Elena Rybakina (6-3, 1-6, 6-3), ad #28 Elina Svitolina (3-6, 6-3, 6-4) before taking down Swiatek.

Keys’ only other major final appearance came all the way back in 2017 when she was demolished by fellow American Sloane Stephens (6-3. 6-0) at the US Open.

Sabalenka has had a considerably easier path to the final, both on paper and in practice. She didn’t face a seeded opponent until the fourth round, where she dominated 17-year-old #14 Mirra Andreeva (6-1, 6-2). Sabalenka dropped her only set on the way to the final in the quarters against Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova (6-2, 2-6, 6-3), and then cruised through her semifinal against Paula Badosa (6-4, 6-2).

Keys vs Sabalenka H2H History

The head-to-head history between Keys and Sabalenka is relatively lopsided. The Belarusian is 4-1 all-time against the American, including three straight victories since 2023. Keys’ only win over Sabalenka was at in 2021 in Berlin on a grass court. Sabalenka has won all three hard-court meetings, with the American only taking a single set.

Keys vs Sabalenka Prediction

Though it came back when she was just 21 years old, Keys was totally overwhelmed in her previous Grand Slam finals appearance, getting bageled by good friend Sloane Stephens in the second and final set. Will she be more mentally read for her second attempt at a Grand Slam victory as a 29-year-old? Only time will tell.

What we do know is that Keys is playing the best tennis of her life. The string of opponents she took down over the last ten days was extremely impressive.

The heavy-hitting Sabalenka can get into rhythms which are all but unbeatable on hard courts, and she loves the surface in Melbourne. So I’m not betting on Keys to pull off the upset. But I do like the value on over 21.5 games at -120. If we get a tiebreaker in either of the first two sets, there’s a great chance this hits. And if Keys plays another three-setter, as she’s been prone to do here, it’s a virtual certainty.