French Open Men’s Singles: Bottom Half Favored at -195 Odds, While 4th Quarter Favored at -135

• Rafael Nadal is the favorite to win the 2019 French Open
• The bottom half of the draw is favored because that’s where Nadal can be found
• Nadal has made it to the quarterfinals and beyond in eight of the last nine French Opens

The 2019 French Open draw is out and now we know exactly how the players line up. Sportsbooks have posted a slew of French Open odds and props on which part of the draw will produce the winning player, and it looks like there’s some value. Let’s take a closer look:

Which Side of the Draw Will Produce the French Open Champion?

*All odds taken 05/24/19

Bottom Half is Favored Because of Nadal

One of the main reasons why the winner is expected to come from the bottom half of the draw is because Rafael Nadal is there. And, not surprisingly, he’s the favorite of the tournament, so he’s pulling these odds up.

The question is whether or not there’s any value betting on the enter bottom half of the draw and paying the extra price for some insurance? In my view, there are four players who are worthy of being bet to win this tournament: Nadal, Dominic Thiem, Stefanos Tsitsipas, and Novak Djokovic.

If you bet the bottom half of the draw, you’re getting Nadal and Tsitsipas. If you bet the top, you’re getting Djokovic and Thiem. There is some value betting on the bottom half of the draw instead of Nadal because Tsitsipas is one of three players to have defeated Nadal this clay-court season. He did it on his home turf in Barcelona.

If you bet the bottom half of the draw, you’re getting Nadal and Tsitsipas. If you bet the top, you’re getting Djokovic and Thiem.

While I don’t think he’ll do it again at the French Open, you do get a little bit of extra insurance there. The question is: does the math work out? Is this a better bet mathematically than just betting Tsitsipas and Nadal separately? That will depend on the sportsbook you’re betting at, but make sure you crunch the numbers.

Which Quarter Will Produce the French Open Champion?

Fourth Quarter Favored to Win French Open

Another betting option is to predict which quarter wins the French Open. In this case, you can get a smaller grouping of players but you’re still getting far more insurance than just betting on one player.

Naturally, Nadal’s quarter is favored but you have to wonder if there’s any value there. The best players you’ll get in that group are no.7 Kei Nishikori, no. 12 Daniil Medvedev, and no. 27 David Goffin. I’m not really that excited about getting any of those players lumped in with Nadal to lower the price.

At the same time, it’s important to keep this in mind: Nadal did lose in the third round in 2016 – shockingly, I might add – but outside of that, he’s been to the quarters and beyond in eight of the last nine French Opens. That means you’re not getting much value here as he’s probably a good bet to beat everyone in this quarter.

What’s The Best Bet?

I would recommend to just bet Nadal to win outright if that’s who you like, but if I had to choose between these props, I’d take the bottom half which includes Nadal. The bottom half also gives me Tsitsipas and I think he’s got a genuine chance to win it all.