Daniil Medvedev vs Carlos Alcaraz Odds, Predictions & Picks – Wimbledon 2024 Semifinal
- For the second straight year, Daniil Medvedev and Carlos Alcaraz will meet in the semifinals of Wimbledon on Friday, July 12
- Alcaraz has won four of six all-time meetings against Medvedev, including the last two and a three-setter in the Wimbledon semis last year
- See the Daniil Medvedev vs Carlos Alcaraz odds, predictions and expert picks for July 12, 2024
Third-seed Carlos Alcaraz’s quest for a second straight Wimbledon title is alive and well as the 21-year-old Spaniard heads into a semifinal matchup with fifth-seed Daniil Medvedev. Alcaraz swept aside the Russian in three sets (6-3, 6-3, 6-3) in this exact spot in the bracket last year en route to his first Wimbledon crown.
Alcaraz and Medvedev are scheduled to meet on Centre Court at 6:00 am ET on Friday, July 12, and the Medvedev vs Alcaraz odds heavily favor the Spaniard to advance again.
Daniil Medvedev vs Carlos Alcaraz Odds
| Player | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Daniil Medvedev | +4.5 (-110) | +250 | Ov 39.5 (-105) |
| Carlos Alcaraz | -4.5 (-115) | -320 | Un 39.5 (-120) |
Alcaraz is priced at -320 on the moneyline to advance to the final, which amounts to a 76.19% implied win probability. Medvedev comes back at +250, which has a 28.57% implied win probability.
The game spread is sitting at Alcaraz -4.5 with Medvedev at -110 and Alcaraz at -115.
The over/under is currently 39.5 with the under slightly favored at -120. Last year’s matchup reached just 27 games.
Odds as of July 11 at DraftKings. Claim a DraftKings Sportsbook promo to bet on Wimbledon 2024.
Alcaraz heads into the semifinals as the +110 favorite to win the tournament in the updated Wimbledon odds. Novak Djokovic is a close second-favorite at +125. Medvedev is a +750 longshot, but that still sits well ahead of Lorenzo Musetti (+2000) who will meet Djokovic later on Friday in the other semifinal.
Medvedev vs Alcaraz H2H History
| Year | Tournament | Surface | Winner/Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Indian Wells | Hard | Alcaraz (7-6, 6-1) |
| 2023 | ATP Finals | Hard | Alcaraz (6-4, 6-4) |
| 2023 | US Open | Hard | Medvedev (7-6, 6-1, 3-6, 6-3) |
| 2023 | Wimbledon | Grass | Alcaraz (6-3, 6-3, 6-3) |
| 2023 | Indian Wells | Hard | Alcaraz (6-3, 6-2) |
| 2021 | Wimbledon | Grass | Medvedev (6-4, 6-1. 6-2) |
Medvedev and Alcaraz have become all too familiar with each other over the last year-plus. Friday’s match will be their fifth since March 2023, and only once in that span has Medvedev come out on top (a four-setter at the 2023 US Open). Indeed, in the other four matchups (three on hard courts, one on grass) Alcaraz has won all nine sets, and the Russian has only forced one tiebreak.
Paths to the Semifinals
| Aleksandar Kovacevic (6-3, 6-4, 6-2) | Round 1 | Mark Lajal (7-6, 7-5, 6-2) |
| Alexandre Muller (6-7, 7-6, 6-4, 7-5) | Round 2 | Aleksandar Vukic (7-6, 6-2, 6-2) |
| Jan-Lennard Struff (6-1, 6-3, 4-6, 7-6) | Round 3 | Francis Tiafoe (5-7, 6-2, 4-6, 7-6, 6-2) |
| Grigor Dimitrov (5-3, walkover) | Round 4 | Ugo Humbert (6-3, 6-4, 1-6, 7-5) |
| Jannick Sinner (6-7, 6-4, 7-6, 2-6, 6-3) | Round 5 | Tommy Paul (5-7, 6-4, 6-2, 6-2) |
Medvedev has undoubtedly had the tougher path to the semis but caught some breaks along the way. After falling down an early break to Grigor Dimitrov in the round of 16, Medvedev advanced without breaking a sweat when Bulgarian was forced to retire with a knee injury later in the first set.
In his quarterfinal crucible with world #1 Jannick Sinner, Medvedev again saw his opponent languishing on court. Sinner was stricken with some unnamed illness that saw him take a 10-minute medical timeout midway through the match, and Medvedev was eventually able to come through a four-four, five-set marathon.
Alcaraz was only seriously pushed once this tournament, falling down two sets to one to Francis Tiafoe before dominating a fourth-set tiebreaker (7-2) and then running away with the fifth set (6-2).
Medvedev vs Alcaraz Predictions & Picks
This is the last opponent Medvedev wanted to see in his side of the bracket. No opponent is better suited to frustrate the temperamental Russian. Alcaraz’s court coverage is unparalleled on tour these days and, unlike most other fleet-footed ATPers, he pairs his speed with a dominant serve and massive ground strokes.
I firmly believe Alcaraz will get back to world #1 in the not-too-distant future and, barring injuries, stay there for a long while. I also expect him to make relatively quick work of the big Russian on Friday.
- Alcaraz -1.5 sets (-160)
- Under 39.5 games (-120)
Sascha Paruk’s 2024 Wimbledon picks: 2-1 (+0.76 units). All wagers one unit unless expressly stated otherwise.
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Sascha has been working in the sports-betting industry since 2014, and quickly paired his strong writing skills with a burgeoning knowledge of probability and statistics. He holds an undergraduate degree in linguistics and a Juris Doctor from the University of British Columbia.
