Daniil Medvedev +120 Favorite to Win 2nd Quarter at Australian Open

• The 2nd Quarter bracket at the Australian Open lacks stars
• Daniil Medvedev is the +120 favorite
• Where can we find value in the second quarter?

The most recent tennis major, the US Open in the fall, was a coming-out party for 23-year-old Russian Daniil Medvedev. Playing in his 14th major, and having never gotten past the fourth round, he took Rafael Nadal to five sets yielding in the final.

The Australian Open gets going this weekend and Medvedev is the third betting choice to win the event, and a significant favorite in the second quarter of the draw, which also features Alexander Zverev, Andrey Rublev, Stan Wawrinka, David Goffin, Jo Wilfried Tsonga, and John Isner among others.

Let’s take a look at the odds for the second quarter and see what value is present.

Odds to Win 2020 Australian Open Men’s 2nd Quarter

Odds taken Jan. 17. 

The winner of the 2nd Quarter likely will face Nadal in the semifinals. However, even if they were to lose at that juncture, for everyone except Wawrinka and Tsonga it would mark their longest run in Melbourne.

The Favorite: Daniil Medvedev

He certainly looks the part at six feet, six inches tall, and finally, put everything together in New York last year. He has done increasingly well in three Australian Open appearances, dropping his first match in 2017, winning once a year later, and reaching the fourth round last January.

Since his run at the US Open, Medvedev has played pretty well. He won the St. Petersburg Open in Russia in September and the Shanghai Masters in October. However, he closed 2019 poorly and has been mediocre in limited action to begin 2020. There is no question that Medvedev is ultra-talented, but he will need to show his form from late last year to justify his pricing in Australia.

Top Contender: Andrey Rublev

If you are looking for the hot player, this 22-year-old Russian is your guy. After winning the Kremlin Cup in October, he closed 2019 with excellent play in the Davis Cup. To start the new century Rublev won in Doha, and has looked strong in Adelaide.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rIb3xl5VjnE

Rublev has never reached a major semifinal and has been to the quarters just once, at the 2017 US Open. Last year he dropped his first match in Melbourne and has never been beyond the third round at the Australian Open.

Longshot: Jo Wilfried Tsonga

It isn’t exciting to bet on a 34-year-old who last reached the Australian Open semifinals in 2010, and made his lone final in 2008. However, Tsonga got to the quarters in 2017 and continues to play well enough that he will be a tough out.

After being upset in his first match at the US Open last year, Tsonga bounced back to win the Moselle Open, and in November he fell in the Paris Masters to Nadal. While he lost his first match in Doha to begin this year, it was a crazy tiebreak that took him down against Miomir Kecmanovic. The price is right.

The Pick

We can not in good conscious take the roughly even-money price on Medvedev though he is clearly the most likely player to emerge from the quarter. At 9/1 Rublev is playing great and has that same sort of young upside that Medvedev delivers. Rublev offers significant value.