Carlos Alcaraz vs Jan-Lennard Struff Odds & Prediction – Madrid Open Final

• You’ll rarely see odds in a Masters 1000 final like those for Carlos Alcaraz and Jan-Lennard Struff
• The world No. 2 is a commanding favorite against the lucky loser for Sunday’s match (12:30 p.m. ET).
• Read on as we break down the matchup and make a prediction

Of the Masters 1000 tournaments, the Madrid Open is often the one that has surprising results. That’s in part due to the altitude that changes the conditions a fair bit. But to have a lucky loser in the final, a +1180 underdog in Jan-Lennard Struff, is beyond even that. Read on for an analysis of Alcaraz vs Struff.

Alcaraz vs Struff Odds

At -1700 odds, No. 1 seed Alcaraz is the prohibitive favorite in the Alcaraz vs Struff final Sunday at the Madrid Open. Struff is the underdog at +1180 odds.

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Lucky Loser Meets Qualifier, Part II

Struff and qualifier Aslan Karatsev both made it to the semifinals of a Masters 1000 for the first time. That was already a surprise. But the fact that they had already played 10 days ago in Madrid was even more so.

Karatsev, seeded No. 22 in the qualifying, defeated Struff (seeded No. 1) pretty routinely in the final round , 6-4, 6-2. Their semifinal Friday was significantly more fraught.

Both looked absolutely on fumes, with Karatsev sporting kinesio tape on both his upper arms and having a medical time out late in the match for a knee issue. Struff had a little more left in a 4-6, 6-3, 6-4 victory that is almost certain to leave him drained for a final against Alcaraz in which he needs a miracle or two.

The two players both won 184 points; in the end, Struff was (barely) the more resistent physically.

No Longer a Teen, Alcaraz Rules

The tournament made a pretty big deal of Alcaraz’s birthday Friday; he left his teens behind as he turned 20.

But despite his “advanced” age, it was the same old Alcaraz against another surprise semifinalist, No. 17 seed Borna Coric.

Take the tennis world by storm as a teenager ✅

Now it's time for the next step… 👀

Happy 20th birthday, Carlos Alcaraz 🥳🎂 pic.twitter.com/oLD0wdLutx

— Eurosport (@eurosport) May 5, 2023

The 6-4, 6-3 win took an hour and 40 minutes, and wasn’t nearly as gruelling as Struff’s victory.

It also was played significantly earlier in the day, with the Struff-Karatsev match having an 8 p.m. start in Madrid.

Alcaraz vs Struff Head-to-Head

A Competitive Head-to-Head

Current circumstances aside, the head-to-head between the two players would lead you to think the German (who also aged a year, turning 33 the day he learned he would get into the tournament as a lucky loser) had a shot.

Their match in the first round at Wimbledon last year was a four hour, 11-minute marathon in which Alcaraz actually out-aced the big-serving Struff, 30 to 23 and pulled it out in five.

Alcaraz had 14 break-point chances, but converted only two. But a great fourth-set tiebreak helped seal the deal.

Alcaraz vs Struff Match History

More pertinently, they met on clay in the third round of the French Open two years ago, when Alcaraz had just turned 18, was ranked No. 97 and had gone through three rounds of qualifying just to get there.

It was fairly routine for Struff, who won in straight sets despite only getting 45 per cent of his first serves in that day.

Alcaraz-Struff, head-to-head on clay:

JLS 1-0 CA (2021 Roland-Garros) 👀@Struffitennis #MMOpen pic.twitter.com/wHCW3p01C2

— Tennis TV (@TennisTV) May 5, 2023

This is a more accomplished Alcaraz. And a far fresher one, too, having played four fewer matches than Struff (in addition to the qualifying, the German didn’t have a first-round bye). Struff will need everything he has to win on this day; unfortunately for him, he doesn’t have much left.

Alcaraz vs Struff Prediction

Struff has played 21 sets in Madrid and has been on court 15 hours, 50 minutes. His last five matches went the distance.

Alcaraz has played 11 sets; only his first match, against Emil Ruusuvuori, went more than two sets and (barely) more than two hours. He also has a 13-year edge on his opponent.

The biggest question is likely to be how many games Struff can eke out.

Best Bet: Under 18.5 Games  (+116)