ATP Tour 2019 Dubai Open Odds & Picks

• The ATP Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championship takes place in Dubai from February 25th to March 2nd.
• Can tournament favorite Roger Federer win his eighth title in Dubai?
• Will Roberto Bautista Agut defend his 2018 win?

This week’s ATP 500 event in Dubai welcomes eight of the world’s top 15 men’s tennis players, including three of the top 10. The Dubai Open is headlined by the world’s sixth and seventh top ranked players in Kei Nishikori and Roger Federer.

2019 Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships Odds

*Odds taken 02/24/19

Top seed Nishikori begins the tournament with a match against 58th ranked Benoit Paire. Nishikori has won 5/7 matches with the Frenchman including each of the past three.

Should seedings hold true to form, a matchup with 12th ranked Stefanos Tsitsipas could be in the cards for the quarter-finals.

Kei Nishikori Ready For Dubai Debut – Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships https://t.co/Te2lnUmCL7

— Kei Nishikori News (@keinishikori39) February 22, 2019

Nishikori would be the fresher of the two having last played in a semi-finals defeat on February 16th in Rotterdam. He’s 1-0 against the Greek youngster.

Outside of a Round of 32 exit in Rotterdam, Tsitsipas has run deep into every tournament this year having reached at least the quarter-finals four times in 2019. Earlier today he defeated Mikhail Kukushkin to claim the Open 13 title in Marseille, meaning I’m unsure how much either player will have left in the tank this week. Though at +8000 any sort of run by the Kazakhstani could look like a great bet a few days from now.

TOUR TITLE NUMBER TWO FOR STEF ✌️@StefTsitsipas claims the @Open13 in Marseille, defeating Kukushkin 7-5 7-6(5) 🇬🇷🏆 pic.twitter.com/4OVd0RUc10

— Tennis TV (@TennisTV) February 24, 2019

Marin Čilić Top Seed in Second Quarter

He may be the tournament’s third overall seed, but Marin Čilić has only four competitive matches to his name in 2019. He reached the Round of 16 in Australia, but withdrew from Rotterdam due to a knee injury.

He’ll face Gael Monfils in the first round, who most recently won a title in Rotterdam last Sunday.

Rotterdam, completed it mate ✅

The moment @Gael_Monfils completed a dream week at #abnamrowtt… pic.twitter.com/0w17XLVcxO

— Tennis TV (@TennisTV) February 17, 2019

The Frenchman has been dealing with an injury of his own having withdrawn from Marseille this past week with a wrist injury.

Too many questions here for me between these two, meaning looking to world number 15 Daniil Medvedev could be worth a bet. The Russian has played a strong 2019 and has been resting this past week after losing to Monfils in the semis of Rotterdam.

Daniil Medvedev, on fire, plays great to win an 8th consecutive match, beats Jo-Wilfried Tsonga 6-4, 6-2 and reaches the SFs in Rotterdam for the 1st time.

He will face Gael Monfils for the 2nd consecutive saturday (beat him last week in Sofia SFs). pic.twitter.com/gRFL7S6IeY

— José Morgado (@josemorgado) February 15, 2019

Can Agut Defend Title?

Quarter three features the winner from 2018 in Roberto Bautista Agut who defeated Lucas Pouille last year. Agut’s seen limited action since a quarter-finals loss to Stefanos Tsitsipas at the Australian Open. He retired with illness from his match in Sofia in the quarter-finals and withdrew from Rotterdam.

Prior to Australia, he started the year on fire with impressive wins over Novak Djokovic and Stan Wawrinka in Doha.

Roberto Bautista-Agut withdrew from the tournament in Rotterdam https://t.co/ZxyrpfSMyq pic.twitter.com/JxREwFfsvm

— tennis time (@tennistime5) February 10, 2019

The top seeds in this quarter feature Karen Khachanov and Borna Coric. The heavy-hitting Khachanov has failed to impress in 2019 having yet to progress past the Round of 16 of any tournament. He most recently lost in the first round of Rotterdam and should he face Agut in round two of Dubai he’ll need to improve upon the straight sets defeat he suffered to the Spaniard at the Aussie Open.

Coric has also failed to advance past the Round of 16 this year.

At odds of +1600, Tomáš Berdych could be worth a bet from the bottom half of the bracket.

At odds of +1600, Tomáš Berdych could be worth a bet from the bottom half of the bracket. The Czech will face Aljaz Bedene who most recently retired from the semis of the Rio Open with a leg injury on Saturday. Should he reach the next round he’ll either face Coric who he owns a 3-0 career record against or Kukushkin (2-0), who he’s also yet to lose to.

Of course, even if Berdych reaches the semis, that would mean a likely matchup with Federer.

Can Federer Win Dubai for First Time Since 2015?

Federer returns to the court for the first time since his Round of 16 upset defeat at the Australian Open, also at the hands of Tsitsipas.

Roger Federer: "After Dubai I will play in Indian Wells, Miami and one or two tournaments on clay before the French Open." pic.twitter.com/CvJEgYUO1F

— We Are Tennis (@WeAreTennis) February 11, 2019

Canadian Milos Raonic is making his first trip to Dubai and looks to be Federer’s main competition in their quarter. His most recent action saw him lose in straight sets to Stan Wawrinka in the Round fo 16 in Rotterdam.

Outside of Raonic, the highest ranked player Federer will face in this quarter is the 33rd ranked Philipp Kohlschreiber whom he’ll meet in round one. It’s tough to not see a semi-finals or even finals appearance for Federer.

Dubai Duty Free Best Bets

Having won seven times in Dubai and being one of the freshest players in the tournament, a bet on Federer at +175 won’t return much, but can’t be disregarded. He has a record of 48-6 in Dubai and is eyeing his 100th career men’s title on the ATP tour.

With a 💯th tour-level 🏆 in his sights, @rogerfederer will meet Philipp Kohlschreiber in the first round in Dubai.

Read More ▶️ https://t.co/rxMztVEJTx pic.twitter.com/4W4txNKp90

— ATP Tour (@atptour) February 23, 2019

Two-time finalist Berdych at +1600 certainly presents some great value for a player who’s shown success in the U.A.E.

If you want to avoid betting Federer or betting against him in the bottom half of the bracket, I’d look to Medvedev, whose price has already shortened from +1000 to +800 since the lines opened. The path looks open for him to reach the quarters against a player possibly dealing with an injury. Progression into the semis or finals could give you some room to hedge depending how other matches unfold.