ATP 2019 Miami Open Men’s Final Odds & Pick – Federer vs Isner

• John Isner and Roger Federer will meet in Sunday’s ATP Miami Open men’s singles final
• Isner won the Miami Open last year
• Federer was the 2017 Miami Open champion

John Isner must be growing fond of the Southeast region of the United States. Isner will look to defend his ATP Miami Open men’s singles title on Sunday against Switzerland’s Roger Federer.

One win away from back-to-back 🏆

Defending champion John Isner defeats Felix Auger-Aliassime 7-6(3), 7-6(4) to return to the #MiamiOpen final. 🔥 pic.twitter.com/XT1b9lwEtt

— ATP Tour (@atptour) March 29, 2019

Isner has also played in eight of the last nine Atlanta Open finals, winning that event the last two years.

Federer vs Isner (Miami Open Finals) Odds

*Odds taken March 29

Start Time: Sun, Mar 31 at TBD

Federer, the world’s no. 5 player, won the Miami Open title in 2017.

All Eyes on Isner

Perhaps they should give Isner a new nickname. Tie Break Johnny would be a perfect fit. Isner hasn’t dropped a set in Miami, going 10-0, but he required tie breakers to win nine of those 10 sets.

Coming into Miami, Isner was 7-10 in his previous 17 tie breakers.

He was shaving it close again in Friday’s semifinal against Canada’s Felix Auger-Aliassime, winning 7-6(7-3), 7-6(7-4). Auger-Aliassime served to win both sets – 5-4 in the first set and 5-3 in the second – but Isner broke him each time.

The towering 6-foot-10 Isner overpowered Auger-Aliassime in the second tie breaker to win the match, hammering three consecutive aces, with the last one clocked at a match-high 140 mph.

He smacked 21 aces in the semifinal and has collected 98 during his five tournament matches.

Auger-Aliassime, 18, had been 5-0 against top-20 opponents prior to his loss to Isner, currently ranked no. 9 in the world.

Age No Barrier For Federer

Also facing a Canadian teenager in his semifinal, Federer, 37 years old, got the best of Denis Shapovalov, 19 years old, winning 6-2, 6-4. The 18-year age difference was the largest that Federer has ever faced in an ATP match.

It was also the biggest age gap between opponents in the quarter-finals or later of an ATP Masters 1000 tournament. Shapovalov wasn’t even born when Federer played in his first Miami Open in 1999.

While Isner was overpowering against Auger-Aliassime, Federer employed a more tactical approach to overcome his young opponent. This strategy kept Shapovalov on his heels and on the run and he was never able to unleash his power game.

https://twitter.com/tumcarayol/status/1111787820761444352

Federer won 61% of the points in a lopsided first set, dropping just four points on his own serve. He wrapped up the opening set in a mere 36 minutes.

Federer committed only four unforced errors in the first set, compared to 20 by Shapovalov. The Canadian committed 14 of his unforced errors in the first four games of the match.

Been There, Done That

Isner is the defending Miami Open champion.

Federer’s 2017 Miami Open title was the third of his career.

Isner’s win was the first Masters 1000 title of his career. Federer also won back-to-back Miami Opens in 2005-06. This is his sixth Miami Open final appearance.

Sunday will mark Federer’s 50th Masters 1000 final appearance. He’s won 28 of them. His 49th was at the last ATP Tour stop, when Federer lost in the BNP Paribas Open final at Indian Wells to Dominic Thiem.

It was at the same event in 2012 when Federer and Isner previously clashed in a Masters 1000 final. Federer won in straight sets.

Overall, Federer holds a 5-2 edge over Isner in head-to-head matches, although this will be their first meeting since 2015.

You get the sense, though, that this time it will be Isner’s time. Maybe it’s the tie breaker run he’s on, but fortune clearly seems to be favoring him in Miami.

Pick: Isner +299, +2.5, over 20.5