Alexander Zverev vs Rafael Nadal Odds & Prediction – ATP Italian Open Quarterfinals

• Rafael Nadal is a -250 favorite to defeat Alexander Zverev in their ATP Italian Open quarterfinal on Friday, May 14th
• Rafa is a nine-time winner of this tournament
• Nadal beat Zverev in the 2018 Italian Open final

Perhaps the most astonishing element of Friday’s ATP Italian Open quarterfinal between Rafael Nadal and Alexander Zverev is how close both players came to not being there for the match.

Germany’s Zverev rallied for a 4-6, 6-3, 6-4 victory in his round of 16 match against world #4 Kei Nishikori. Meanwhile, Nadal survived a slugfest against Canada’s Denis Shapovalov. The Spanish star battled for a  3-6, 6-4, 7-6(3) triumph.

The master of the clay court, despite nearly being eliminated Nadal was still made a solid -250 favorite to shunt Zverev aside.

Alexander Zverev vs Rafael Nadal Odds

Odds as of May 13th

Friday’s match is slated to get underway at 6a;00 m ET.  Broadcasting the match is Tennis TV, with a live stream available from ESPN Plus.

Rafa Saves His Skin

Not only did Nadal save his skin against the 13th-seeded Shapovalov, he did so by the skin of his teeth. He found himself trailing  0-4 in the opening set, 0-3 in the second set and 1-3 in the third set.

Twice, Nadal fought off match point in the third set at 5-6. The match took three hours and 27 minutes to complete.

Two match points saved. 3.5 hours of play.

Nadal's fighting spirit is like no other 💪 #IBI21 pic.twitter.com/o42pK8sbor

— ATP Tour (@atptour) May 13, 2021

Instead of going home, Nadal dug deep and now is going on to the quarterfinals at this event for the 16th time. He’s through to the quarterfinals of an ATP Masters 1000 tournament for a record 97th time.

He also extended his victory streak against fellow left-handed players to 19 matches in a row. Shapovalov, at the 2017 Coupe Rogers in Montreal, was the last southpaw to defeat Nadal.

Zverev Also Finds His Mojo

A week ago, Zverev only dropped five games in quickly dispatching Nishikori 6-3, 6-2 in the round of 32 at Madrid. Nishikori would not be nearly as accommodating in this match.

On this occasion, the world #4 and world #6 Zverev would slug it out for two hours and 53 minutes. Up a break in the third set, Nishikori saved three break points in one service game to eventually take a 4-1 lead.

✅ Down 1-3 in the second set
✅ Down 1-4 in the final set@AlexZverev scores a big 4-6, 6-3, 6-4 comeback over Nishikori. #IBI21 pic.twitter.com/tA6GS9C9m3

— ATP Tour (@atptour) May 13, 2021

Coming back against Nishokori is not easily achieved. The Japanese player is ranked third in ATP Tour history with a 72.8 winning percentage in tour-level deciding sets.

Once Zverev won to narrow his third-set disadvantage to 2-4, he was like a different player. The German converted five of 13 break points and won 70-percent of his first-serve points to rally and claim the match.

Been There, Done That

This will be the second time that Zverev and Nadal have opposed each other in the Italian Open. Nadal won the 2018 final by a 6-1, 1-6, 6-3 verdict over Zverev.

Nadal is a nine-time champion in Rome. Zverev also has a tournament victory in this event. He defeated Novak Djokovic 6-4, 6-3 in the 2017 Italian Open final.

Zverev Gaining An Edge

It’s clay. It’s Nadal. The common practice would be to shrug off the tough battle he’s just overcome and assume it will be business as usual for the king of clay.

Déjà vu for Zverev & Nadal 🎾

One week later, they'll meet again in an ATP Masters 1000 QF. #IBI21 pic.twitter.com/weEZKmhoDY

— ATP Tour (@atptour) May 13, 2021

Except of late, when it comes to Nadal-Zverev matchups, it’s been business unusual. They’ve met eight times and Nadal holds a slight 5-3 advantage in those matches.

However, since 2018, it’s been all Alex. The German has won three in a row from Rafa, all via straight-set verdicts.

Rafael Nadal vs Alexander Zverev Stats

The most recent victory came last week in Madrid. Zverev made short of Nadal on clay, winning 6-4, 6-4 in the quarterfinals. It was the first time in a year that someone beat Nadal on clay in straight sets. Diego Schwartzman did it in the 2020 Rome quarterfinals.

Nadal

noun

1. a Spanish tennis player who will fight no matter the score and usually find a way to win

2. clay pic.twitter.com/4EA5sD8jDk

— Christopher Clarey 🇺🇸 🇫🇷 🇪🇸 (@christophclarey) May 13, 2021

Overall, Nadal owns a 3-1 edge in head-to-head matches between the two players on a clay-court surface. Novak Djokovic, in 2011, is the only player to ever beat Nadal in successive matches on clay.

As much as Nadal is the greatest clay legend since Cassius changed his name to Muhammad Ali, based on recent history, you have to go for value and take the price on Zverev.

Pick: Alexander Zverev (+195); Zverev 2-1 (+500)