2019 Men’s US Open Picks & Betting Preview: Djokovic Favored to Repeat

• Novak Djokovic won the 2018 US Open
• Djokovic has been to the US Open final in eight of the last nine years.
• Rafael Nadal has a really easy draw and path to get to the final.

The final tennis grand slam is upon us as the 2019 US Open gets underway on Monday. Novak Djokovic, who is the No. 1 player in the world and has won four of the last five grand slams, is favored.

However, he’s facing a tough draw. Could that mean someone else surprises and wins it all at Flushing Meadows?

2019 US Open Odds

*Odds taken August 23, 2019

Djokovic Has Been Stellar

You’d be hard-pressed to find a player who has performed better than Djokovic in 2019. He has three titles on the year, including the 2019 Australian Open and Wimbledon, and the Mutua Madrid Open. He’s the clear-cut favorite heading into the US Open and it will be a surprise if he loses.

We know that Djokovic can be vulnerable at smaller events. We saw him lose in the semis in Qatar, the third and fourth round at Indian Wells and Miami, and in the semis in Cincinnati last week. However, at grand slams, he tends to clean everyone out.

He lost a total of four sets at Wimbledon – two in the final to Roger Federer – and just two sets in the Australian Open. He’s reached the US Open semis 11 straight times. If he’s at his best, nobody will beat him at Flushing Meadows.

Djokovic Has a Really Tough Draw

Djokovic has a shockingly difficult draw, which was not expected. If he wins the 2019 US Open, he’s going to have to earn.

He might have to face Sam Querrey in the second round, who he is 9-2 lifetime against, but that’s a more challenging second-round match than expected. In the fourth round, he might have to face 2017 finalist Kevin Anderson or former US Open champ Stan Wawrinka.

If that’s not challenging enough, he might also have to go through Daniil Medvedev, who beat him in the semis at the Western & Southern Open last week, and then face Roger Federer in the semis. Get through all of that and he’s probably going up against Rafael Nadal.

Don’t Sweat the Draw Too Much

On paper, everyone is worried about the draw. Yes, if everything plays out as expected and if everyone is playing their best, this is as difficult of a draw as I’ve seen for a No. 1 player in a long time. However, reality is very likely to play out quite differently.

For example, Querrey hasn’t won more than a single match in each of his last two tournaments. He lost in the first round at the Australian Open. Wawrinka, a former US Open, has done the same in four straight tournaments. He’s been awful of late. As for Anderson, he’s been battling injuries all year. He hasn’t even played since Wimbledon.

As for Medvedev, he’s someone to look out for. He’s the best hard court player on the Tour right now and he has more hard court wins than any other player this year. However, keep in mind he’s never been past the third round at the US Open. As for Federer, Djokovic is 5-1 against him in their last six on the hard courts. This isn’t Federer’s best surface.

And keep in mind that draws don’t always play out as expected. At Wimbledon, Anderson went out in the third round, No. 5 Dominic Thiem, No. 6 Alex Zverev and No. 7 Stefanos Tsitsipas went out in the first. 13 of the top 17 seeds at Wimbledon were gone in the fourth round or sooner.

Last 5 Winners at the US Open

Nadal Has A Shot

If I’m not betting Djokovic, the other option is Nadal. He’s 41-6 on the year and is having a fantastic campaign. He won the title at the Rogers Cup, smoking Medvedev 6-3, 6-0 in the final. In fairness, he had a breeze of a draw at that event but it should be easy here too – at least easier than Djokovic.

Nadal doesn’t have much to worry about. He might have to face someone like Marin Cilic, Alex Zverev or Karen Khachanov. Nadal is 6-2 against Cilic, 5-0 against Zverev and 6-0 against Khachanov.  There’s not a ton to sweat here.

If Djokovic stumbles, this tournament is Nadal’s for the taking. He’s played well, he’s in good health and he’s had plenty of rest.

What’s The Best Bet?

It might be boring and it might be obvious, but I like the favorites here with a lean to Djokovic.

Djokovic has been to the US Open Final in eight of the last nine years. He’ll be there again. I’m expecting he’ll meet Nadal there and they’ll engage in another epic, grand slam final. Djokovic holds a 19-7 head-to-head record with Nadal on hard courts and he’ll win again.