2019 Erste Bank Open Final Odds & Pick: Thiem vs Schwartzman

• Dominic Thiem has now won 11 of his last 12 matches overall
• Thiem has a 4-2 lifetime record against Diego Schwartzman
• Read below for analysis and prediction of the Erste Bank Open Final

The 2019 Erste Bank Open has reached the final as No. 1 Dominic Thiem will take on No. 5 Diego Schwartzman. Thiem is a sizable favorite in this matchup as he was also the tournament favorite at the beginning. Is he the best bet here or will the lower-seeded Argentinean surprise once again?

Diego Schwartzman vs Dominic Thiem Odds

*Odds taken 10/25/19

Thiem Outlasts Berrettini to Reach Final

Dominic Thiem had to take out the red-hot Matteo Berrettini in the semis to reach the final but that contest was anything but easy. Berrettini actually won the first set and the two players were on serve in the second until Thiem got a break at 5-5. He eventually won the second set 7-5 and the third 6-3.

Thiem is playing some of his best tennis of the season right now as he’s picked up wins in 11 of his last 12 matches. He’s played some competitive matches in Vienna but nothing that’s really made him sweat too much.

Schwartzman Surprises Monfils in Semis

Although we predicted the upset, Schwartzman did, in fact, cash as a dog in the semis when he took care of business against favorite Gael Monfils. It was a relatively easy match for Schwartzman as he disposed of Monfils in two quick sets by a final score of 6-3, 6-2.

Schwartzman has had to deal with some tough competition in this tournament as he has already knocked off the No. 2 seed, Karen Khachanov, and he had a tough second-round opponent in Sam Querrey.

It’s a bit surprising to see Schwartzman in the final as he was just 1-3 in his last four matches before this tournament but he’s looked great in Vienna. It’s the first time in four tournaments that he’s won at least four matches at an ATP event.

Who is the Best Bet Here?

I’ve been on-board with Thiem since the beginning and I’m going to stick with him here. He’s now won 11 of his last 12 matches and he looked particularly good against Berrettini in the semis. He’s also pretty fresh as he only had to play five games in the quarters when Pablo Carreno Busta retired early.

In terms of the head-to-head showdowns between these two, Thiem has the upper hand as he’s won four of the six meetings. They’ve played twice on the hard courts and have split the two meetings. Meanwhile, Thiem has a 3-1 edge on Schwartzman on clay.

It’s also worth noting that Schwartzman’s two wins have gone the distance as both times, he had to win a seventh game in the third set to earn the victory. All four of Thiem’s wins have come in straight sets. The price here on Thiem is quite high but with the home crowd behind him, I’m expecting the win.