Venezuela vs Canada Odds, Predictions & Best Bets for Copa America Knockout Stage (July 5)

• Perfect through the group stage, surging Venezuela face Canada in the Copa America quarterfinals on Friday, July 5
• Canada managed to escape a tough group with Argentina, Chile, and Peru despite scoring just one goal
• See the Canada vs Venezuela odds, predictions, and best bets for the 2024 Copa America knockout stage

A dream tournament for Venezuela (3-0-0, +4 GD) continues on Friday as La Vinotinto get a favorable draw against Canada (1-1-1, +0 GD) in the quarterfinals of the 2024 Copa America. Venezuela and Canada will square off at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, TX, on Friday (8:00 pm CT/9:00 pm ET).

By finishing first in Group B, Venezuela avoided a clash with reigning Copa and World Cup-champion Argentina. That said, the Venezuela vs Canada odds are fairly narrow as oddsmakers likely give the Canadians a semi-home-field advantage.

Venezuela vs Canada Odds

Venezuela are +155 favorites to win in regular time (just a 39.22% implied win probability) and -125 to advance to the semifinals. Canada’s odds to secure a win in 90 minutes are sitting at +200 (33.33%) while their odds to advance are +100. A 90-minute draw is currently +210 (32.26%).

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Canada and Venezuela have only played twice in their history, both were friendlies and both ended in a draw. The most-recent was a 1-1 score in Maracaibo in 2010. They also played to a 2-2 in Maracaibo in 2007.

Neither is considered a threat to win the tournament. Venezuela is listed at +2575, on average, in the latest Copa America odds with Canada back at +4075.

Canada Recent Results

It’s clear that under new coach Jesse Marsch, Canada is more focused on defense than it was under the free-flowing reign of John Herdman. Canada has only scored one goal in five games since Marsch took over in May, but they’ve also kept clean sheets in three of their last four. That includes a 1-0 win over Peru and a pair of scoreless draws with France (in France) and Chile.

After giving up three goals in a devastating 3-2 loss to Jamaica on home soil back in November 2023, longtime starter Milan Borjan has lost his net to Maxime Crépeau, who has started each of Canada’s last six matches.

Unfortunately, the Canadians got devastating injury news on Monday when Inter Milan midfielder Tajon Buchanan broke his tibia during practice. Buchanan appeared in each of the first three games (two as a sub) and was a mainstay in Canada’s midfield throughout their highly successful 2022 World Cup qualifying campaign. His estimated transfer value of $7.7 million is the fourth-highest of any Canadian player.

Venezuela Recent Results

Since finishing deadlast in CONMEBOL qualifying for the 2022 World Cup (3-1-14, -20 goal differential), Venezuela has shown marked improvement. They are currently fourth in qualifying for 2026, one-third of the way through, and have a 4-4-2 record over their last ten while playing stiff competition. Seven of their last ten opponents have been ranked 31st or higher by FIFA. They managed to earn a point away at Brazil in Oct. 2023 with a 1-1 draw.

While they were fortunate to be playing a man up for the final 68 minutes against Ecuador in their first match at the Copa America, they still deserve credit for coming back from a goal down to secure the full three points. They then showcased their resilient defense in a 1-0 win over Mexico before outclassing Jamaica 3-0.

Star striker Salomon Rondon has a pair of goals, as does right winger Eduard Bello. Famalicao winger Jhonder Cadiz leveled the score at 1-1 in the win over Ecuador while Rondon’s substitute, Eric Ramirez, tallied last against Jamaica.

Venezuela vs Canada Picks & Predictions

With Canada playing Marsch’s defensive style against a Venezuelan group that’s kept back-to-back clean sheets, I really like the value on a scoreless draw at +650 (which has just a 13.33% implied probability). Generally, Venezuela is all too happy to play low-scoring, defensive battles. Prior to the Copa, only one of their last seven competitive fixtures went over 2.5 goals, and four stayed under 1.5.

In addition, Canadian keeper Maxime Crépeau has been absolutely sensational throughout the tournament. His team has conceded 4.80 xGA, yet he’s allowed just a pair of (borderline unstoppable) goals to world-champion Argentina. Venezuelan number-one Rafael Romo has been similarly outstanding, allowing just one goal when a teammate hung him out to dry with a poor clearance off a free kick against Ecuador. He made a victory-clinching save off penalty late in Venezuela’s 1-0 win over Mexico.

On the whole, Venezuela has been the stronger team, and Canada is still in the beginnings of the Marsch era. There are still kinks to be worked out.

VEN vs CAN picks:

• Under 0.5 (+650) at DraftKings
• Venezuela to advance (-125)

Sascha Paruk’s 2024 Euro/Copa America betting record: 29-12-1 (+18.37 units). All wagers one unit unless expressly stated otherwise.