Spain vs Italy Predictions, Picks, Odds & Starting Lineups for Euro 2024 Group Stage on June 20
- Two 1-0 teams meet in Group B action when Italy and Spain clash at Arena AufSchalke in Gelsenkirchen on Thursday
- Spain is 3-2-0 against Italy in the last five head-to-head meetings; Italy hasn’t beating Spain since Euro 2016
- See the Spain vs Italy odds, predictions, projected starting lineups, and betting trends
A clash likely to determine top spot in Group B is on Thursday’s schedule at Euro 2024 as Spain (1-0-0) meet Italy (1-0-0) at Arena AufSchalke in Gelsenkirchen at 3:00 pm ET. Spain was arguably the most-impressive team of the first matchday, recording a 3-0 win against Croatia (#9 in the FIFA world rankings). After conceding the fastest goal in Euro history to Albania just 24 second into their opening match, Italy responded with a pair of first half goals of their own en route to a 2-1 victory.
With Croatia and Albania drawing 2-2 yesterday, a win for either Italy or Spain today would clinch first place in Group B. The Spain vs Italy odds favor the Spaniards, but both teams are at plus-money to take the full three points.
Spain vs Italy Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Spain | +125 | Over 2.5 (+130) |
| Italy | +240 | Under 2.5 (-165) |
| Draw | +205 | N/A |
Spain is listed at +125 in the three-way moneyline, which equals a 44.44% implied win probability. Italy is priced at +240 (29.41%) with the draw at +205 (32.79%).
Odds as of June 20 at DraftKings. See the list of DraftKings states where you can bet on Euro 2024.
Spain is currently the fifth-favorite in the Euro 2024 title at +725, on average. Italy is only two spots behind in seventh, but at much longer odds (+1575).
Spain has won the last two head-to-head meetings with Italy – a 2-1 neutral-site win in the 2023 Nations League final, and a 2-1 away victory during the 2021 Nations League final – and is unbeaten in five straight against Gli Azzurri. Italy’s last victory came in the round of 16 at the 2016 Euro in France, when they earned a 2-0 win.
If both managers employ the same starting 11 as their tournament-opening matches, here is how the teams will lineup on Thursday night.
Italy vs Spain Projected Lineups
| Italy | Spain |
|---|---|
| Gianluigi Donnarumma (GK) | Unai Simon (GK) |
| Federico Dimarco (LB) | Marc Cucurella (LB) |
| Riccardo Calafiori (CB) | Nacho Fernandez (CB) |
| Alessandro Bastoni (CB) | Robin Le Normand (CB) |
| Giovanni Di Lorenzo (RB) | Daniel Carvajal (RB) |
| Nicolo Barella (LMF) | Fabian Ruiz (LMF) |
| Jorginho (RMF) | Rodri (CMF) |
| Federico Chiesa (LW) | Pedri (LMF) |
| Davide Frattesi (RW) | Nico Williams (LW) |
| Lorenzo Pellegrini (SS) | Lamine Yamal (RW) |
| Gianluca Scamacca (STR) | Alvaro Morata (STR) |
Spain got goals from Alvaro Morata, Fabian Ruiz, and Daniel Carvajal in their win over Croatia, while keeper Unai Simon stopped a late penalty to retain his team’s clean sheet.
After falling behind Albania, Italy responded with goals from Alessandro Bastoni and Nicolo Barella within 15 minutes to take the lead.
Italy Last 10 Matches
| Opponent | Opp. FIFA Rank | Date | Location | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Albania | 66 | Jun 15, 2024 | Neutral | W 2-1 |
| Bosnia & Herz. | 75 | Jun 9, 2024 | Home | W 1-0 |
| Turkey | 42 | Jun 4, 2024 | Home | D 0-0 |
| Ecuador | 30 | Mar 24, 2024 | Home | W 2-0 |
| Venezuela | 54 | Mar 21, 2024 | Home | W 2-1 |
| Ukraine | 24 | Nov 20, 2023 | Away | D 0-0 |
| N. Macedonia | 71 | Nov 17, 2023 | Home | W 5-2 |
| England | 5 | Oct 17, 2023 | Away | L 3-1 |
| Malta | 172 | Oct 14, 2023 | Home | W 4-0 |
| Ukraine | 24 | Sep 12, 2023 | Home | W 2-1 |
Italy has a solid 7-2-1 record in its last ten matches, the only loss coming away at England (3-1) last October. The wins include victories over Ukraine and Ecuador, both at home.
Spain Last 10 Matches
| Opponent | Opp. FIFA Rank | Date | Location | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Croatia | 9 | Jun 15, 2024 | Neutral | W 3-0 |
| N. Ireland | 73 | Jun 8, 2024 | Home | W 5-1 |
| Andorra | 162 | Jun 5, 2024 | Home | W 5-0 |
| Brazil | 4 | Mar 26, 2024 | Home | D 3-3 |
| Colombia | 12 | Mar 22, 2024 | Neutral | L 1-0 |
| Georgia | 74 | Nov 19, 2023 | Home | W 3-1 |
| Cyprus | 126 | Nov 16, 2023 | Away | W 3-1 |
| Norway | 46 | Oct 15, 2023 | Away | W 1-0 |
| Scotland | 39 | Oct 12, 2023 | Home | W 2-0 |
| Cyprus | 126 | Sep 12, 2023 | Home | W 6-0 |
Spain is 8-1-1 across its last ten matches, including friendlies. La Roja blitzed through qualifying in a dangerous group with Scotland, Norway, Georgia, and Cyprus, going 7-0-1 with a +20 goal differential. Their only loss was a 2-0 setback away to Scotland, the Group A runners-up.
Spain vs Italy Prediction
Spain’s performance against Croatia was brilliant, especially in the first half. They controlled the tempo and possession from the outset against a top-ten team, albeit an aging one. They are fielding a similar squad that’s bested Italy in the last two Nations League finals with an injection of youth/speed from Lamine Yamal. Derided as something less than a world-class #9, Alvaro Morata still fits perfectly into a Spain squad with capable goalscorers all over the pitch.
Spain is apt to control the bulk of the play against Italy just as it did against Croatia, and should break through for the opening goal.
But each of the last two Spain/Italy matches and three of the last four have gone over 2.5 goals, and at the rate goals are going in this tournament, I like the value on another over at significant plus money.
Spain vs Italy picks:
- Spain moneyline (+125)
- Over 2.5 (+130)
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Sascha has been working in the sports-betting industry since 2014, and quickly paired his strong writing skills with a burgeoning knowledge of probability and statistics. He holds an undergraduate degree in linguistics and a Juris Doctor from the University of British Columbia.
