Spain vs Germany Predictions, Picks, Odds & Projected Lineups for Euro 2024 Quarterfinals
- Two of the tournament’s most impressive teams meet in a star-studded quarterfinal on Friday
- Spain is a slight +170 favorite over Germany (+175) in the three-way moneyline
- See our Spain vs Germany odds, predictions, projected lineups and soccer best bets below
The quarterfinals of Euro 2024 kick off with a dream matchup between tournament co-favorites Spain (4-0-0) and host nation Germany (3-1-0) at MHP Arena in Stuttgart on Friday at 12:00 pm ET.
Spain has been the class of the competition so far, recording four consecutive wins without conceding a goal until their 4-1 round of 16 victory against Georgia. Germany topped Group A and eliminated Denmark 2-0 to reach this stage, but has not been quite as dominant as their Spanish counterparts.
With the match taking place on German soil, the Spain vs Germany odds are nearly even. The Spaniards are slim +170 favorites, while the Germans are +175 underdogs. The draw is priced at +210.
Spain vs Germany Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Spain | +170 | Over 2.5 (+100) |
| Germany | +175 | Under 2.5 (-122) |
| Draw | +210 | – |
Odds as of July 4th, 2024, at DraftKings Sportsbook. Check out the best sports betting apps for Spain vs Germany.
Spain is listed at +170 on the three-way moneyline, implying a 37.04% chance of victory in regular time. Germany’s +175 odds translate to a 36.36% implied probability, while the +210 draw carries a 32.26% chance of occurring.
Spain remains unbeaten in its last four meetings with Germany, most recently playing to a 1-1 draw in the group stage of the 2022 World Cup. La Roja’s last loss to Die Mannschaft came all the way back at Euro 1988.
The projected lineups for both sides are as follows:
Spain vs Germany Projected Lineups
| Spain | Germany |
|---|---|
| Unai Simon (GK) | Manuel Neuer (GK) |
| Marc Cucurella (LB) | David Raum (LB) |
| Robin Le Normand (CB) | Antonio Rudiger (CB) |
| Aymeric Laporte (CB) | Jonathan Tah (CB) |
| Daniel Carvajal (RB) | Joshua Kimmich (RB) |
| Pedri (MF) | Robert Andrich (MF) |
| Rodri (MF) | Toni Kroos (MF) |
| Fabian Ruiz (MF) | Florian Wirtz (FW) |
| Lamine Yamal (FW) | Ilkay Gundogan (MF) |
| Alvaro Morata (FW) | Jamal Musiala (FW) |
| Nico Williams (FW) | Kai Havertz (FW) |
Spain has scored a tournament-high nine goals, but the scoring has been balanced with seven different players finding the back of the net. Midfielder Fabian Ruiz leads the way with two goals and two assists. 16-year-old winger Lamine Yamal has impressed with his playmaking abilities, notching two assists to go along with 11 shots.
SPAIN TAKES THE LEAD 🇪🇸
Lamine Yamal sets up Fabián Ruiz with a beautiful assist 🔥 pic.twitter.com/V1wmDSr5bK
— FOX Soccer (@FOXSoccer) June 30, 2024
For Germany, 21-year-old Jamal Musiala has been the star. He’s tied for the Golden Boot lead with three goals on just seven shots. Kai Havertz has added two goals, both from the penalty spot, while midfielders Joshua Kimmich and Ilkay Gundogan have been brilliant in progressing the attack.
While the offenses get the headlines, both defenses have been stout. Spain conceded its only goal of the tournament on an own goal against Georgia, while Germany has allowed just two goals (both to Scotland in a 5-1 victory). Manuel Neuer and Unai Simon are two of the best goalkeepers in the world.
Spain’s Road to the Quarterfinals
| Opponent | Result | Goals For | Goals Against |
|---|---|---|---|
| Croatia | 3-0 W | 3 | 0 |
| Italy | 1-0 W | 1 | 0 |
| Albania | 1-0 W | 1 | 0 |
| Georgia | 4-1 W | 4 | 1 |
Spain cruised through the group stage with three straight wins and clean sheets against 2018 World Cup finalist Croatia, rival Italy, and Albania. They conceded their first goal of the tournament on an own goal against Georgia in the Round of 16 but still advanced comfortably.
Germany’s Road to the Quarterfinals
| Opponent | Result | Goals For | Goals Against |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scotland | 5-1 W | 5 | 1 |
| Hungary | 2-0 W | 2 | 0 |
| Switzerland | 1-1 D | 1 | 1 |
| Denmark | 2-0 W | 2 | 0 |
Germany opened the tournament with a statement 5-1 win over Scotland. They secured first place in Group A with a workmanlike 2-0 victory against Hungary and a late 1-1 draw vs Switzerland. The hosts then eliminated a solid Denmark side 2-0 in the Round of 16 to set up this marquee matchup with Spain.
Spain vs Germany Prediction
This has the makings of an instant classic between two of the best teams in the world. Both are loaded with young, dynamic attacking talent mixed with veteran know-how. It will likely come down to which midfield can control the tempo and create the best chances for their forwards.
🇪🇸 Spain vs. Germany 🇩🇪
A rematch of the Euro 2008 final. pic.twitter.com/zjFGZB2ua6
— B/R Football (@brfootball) June 30, 2024
Spain has looked like the slightly better team throughout the tournament, and players like Pedri, Rodri and Fabian Ruiz should be able to cope with Germany’s intense pressing. However, it’s impossible to count out a German side featuring the likes of Musiala, Havertz, Kimmich and Gundogan, especially with the home crowd behind them.
In the end, this match feels destined for extra time and possibly penalties. The betting value lies with the draw at +210 in regular time. For those feeling bold, Germany advancing at -108 could be worth a shot given the home-field advantage if the game does reach extra time or a shootout.
Spain vs Germany Picks:
- Draw (+210)
- Germany to Advance (-108)
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Brady is the lead NHL and College Football editor at Sports Betting Dime, where he specializes in betting odds and data-driven analysis. Brady has over 10 years experience working in sports media, with work published by outlets such as ESPN, CBS Sports, Yahoo! Sports and Fox Sports.
