Spain vs England Predictions, Expert Picks, Props to Target & Best Odds for Euro 2024 Final
- Spain and England meet at Olympiastadion Berlin at 3:00 pm ET for the Euro 2024 championship
- Spain are looking for a record-setting fourth title while England are still searching for their first
- Below. see the Spain vs England predictions, expert picks, and props to target on July 14
The 2024 UEFA European Championship comes to a close on Sunday as three-time champion Spain meet zero-time champion England, who are looking to one-up their second-place finish in the 2020 edition. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:00 pm ET at Olympiastadion Berlin.
The Spanish head into Sunday’s Euro 2024 final as slight favorites, priced at +145 to win in regular time and -248 to lift the trophy at FanDuel with England at +250 to win in 90 minutes and +126 to finally capture their first European Championship.
Spain vs England Predictions & Picks
- First half under 0.5 (+144 at FanDuel)
- Spain to lift the trophy (-148 at FanDuel)
Sascha Paruk’s 2024 Euro/Copa America betting record: 33-20-1 (+15.17 units)
All wagers one unit unless expressly stated otherwise.
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England’s 2-1 win over the Netherlands in the semifinals witnessed an uncharacteristically open first half for the Three Lions. They allowed the Dutch forwards to break forward with pace early on and found themselves in another 1-0 deficit. (England had to come from behind in each of their three knockout-stage victories.) As Gareth Southgate will have seen, after Spain took a 2-1 lead on France in the other semifinal, the French hardly sniffed a goalscoring opportunity over the final 65 minutes.
That’s slight hyperbole, as Kylian Mbappe did have a quality chance to equalize in the second half, but overall, the Spanish put on a true masterclass in defending-through-possession. Spain had 60% of the ball in the second half while defending the lead, and completed 89.5% of their passes. France mustered just three shots on target over the 90 minutes.
In sum, Southgate’s England side will know that falling behind for a fourth straight game is apt to be a death sentence.
After conceding to Xavi Simons in the seventh minute in the semis, England’s defense straightened up. The Dutch had just one shot on target thereafter and generated just 0.15 xGF in the second half as England controlled 61% of possession. That’s the England side I expect to see from the jump in Sunday’s final. The one that leans on its rock-solid backline and doesn’t push for opportunities that aren’t there.
Spain was forced to press the issue against France after conceding early, but I don’t expect an early tally from England, which should lead to the championship game resembling Spain’s quarterfinal with Germany, which featured just 0.50 xGF in the first half.
I love the value on a scoreless first half at +144 at FanDuel, which equates to just a 40.98% implied probability.
Over 90 minutes and potential extra time, however, I am backing Spain to win their record-setting fourth Euro title. They will have their full complement of players available (right back Daniel Carvajal and center back Robin Le Normand were both suspended against France) and have been the best, most-complete team throughout the past month.
Best Spain vs England Odds for Euro 2024 Final
| Team | Moneyline | Total | To Lift the Trophy |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spain | +150 | Over 2.5 (+158) | -145 |
| England | +262 | Under 2.5 (-194) | +126 |
| Draw | +190 | — | — |
The best three-way moneyline prices are currently at bet365, which is offering an “enhanced moneyline” with just a 2.1% vig. At beg365, Spain are priced at +150 to win in regular time while England are +262 and a full-time draw is sitting at +190.
The best odds to lift the trophy, however, are at FanDuel, where the Spanish are -148 and England is +126. FanDuel also has the best odds on over 2.5 goals (+158) while bet365 has the best odds on under 2.5 (-188).
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Sascha has been working in the sports-betting industry since 2014, and quickly paired his strong writing skills with a burgeoning knowledge of probability and statistics. He holds an undergraduate degree in linguistics and a Juris Doctor from the University of British Columbia.
