Roma vs Atalanta Odds & Prediction – Serie A Week 7

• Roma hosts Atalanta in the seventh match day of Serie A on Sunday, September 18th, at 12:00 pm ET
• Roma have won their last two matches versus Atalanta by an aggregated score of 5-1
• Get the Roma vs Atalanta picks, odds analysis, and betting prediction below

Roma vs Atalanta is the Serie A match to keep your eye on this weekend.  For one, it will certainly affect the top of the Serie A table. Currently, Atalanta sits in second place on a staggering fourteen points. This is a surprise for most Calcio fans considering Atalanta finished in eighth place last year, five spots lower than their finish in 2020-21. However, their only real test so far was against defending Scudetto champions, AC Milan, a match in which they drew.

Conversely, Roma come into Sunday’s fixture off the back of a 3-0 win in the Europa League against HJK Helsinki. While that match was at home, you can still expect Roma to be a bit more sluggish, coming off four games in just eleven days.

Nonetheless, Jose Mourinho’s side is still in fifth place in Serie A, just one measly point behind Atalanta. They are simply not a team you can take lightly, especially as Tammy Abraham and Paulo Dybala continue to build more chemistry up top.

Roma vs Atalanta Odds

Odds as of September 15th at Caesars Sportsbook. Use this Caesars Sportsbook bonus code to bet on this Serie A match.

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Overall, both Roma and Atalanta have plus moneyline odds, respectively at +111 and +240. Roma is not a bad play here considering they have won their last two matches against Atalanta. However, you still want to be wary. In 2021/22, Atalanta had the fourth best away record in Serie A, capturing 2.05 points per match.

In the long run, Roma and Atalanta have respective outright Serie A odds of +800 and +3500.

Over/Under Odds & a Goal Scorer Prop
Furthermore, I favor the under 2.5 goals play, with odds of -110. Generally, this match can go either way in terms of goals. In fact, through their last six matches, the over/under on 2.5 total goals is dead even at 3-3. But, both of these teams’ defenses have been very good to start the year, compiling a combined xGA per match of 1.5.

Additionally, Roma’s offense is a bit cold right now. They might have scored three against a ten-man Helsinki side, but that does not take away from the fact they are underperforming on their xG by about 4.6 total goals.

Another prop bet I have my eye on is the under 10 corners and 4-6 cards parlay. This has odds of +250, which I absolutely love. Firstly, these teams average 9.58 combined corners per match. Their head-to-head battles also average 4.62 cards (four red cards in their last three matches). With Roma’s fixture congestion, I see this being a slow, pragmatic match that will fulfill both of these prospects.

Jose Mourinho has led @ASRomaEN to victory their last two #SerieA💎 meetings with Atalanta.

Can they make it three in a row for the first time since 2011 (under Claudio Ranieri and Luis Enrique) on Sunday?#RomaAtalanta pic.twitter.com/dWVSCxUY8S

— Lega Serie A (@SerieA_EN) September 16, 2022

Duvan Zapata’s Absence

So, who do I favor in this one? I have to go with Roma, simply because they have been tested more early on this year. On top of this, Atalanta will be without Duvan Zapata, which is a huge miss in their attack. If anything, that makes life a lot easier for Smalling, Ibanez and Mancini in defense.

Roma vs Atalanta Statistics

*Stats are from 2022/23 domestic league play.

As a result, Luis Muriel gets the added pressure of scoring for Atalanta. The Colombian was great last season, adding 0.99 goals + assists per ninety minutes of play. Regardless, he is yet to score this year in 180 minutes, which might concern the La Dea faithful.

Gian Piero Gasperini seemed fairly positive despite Atalanta’s dropped points in a tough 1-1 draw with Cremonese today. https://t.co/bV9D8NEOYd #Gasperini #Muriel #Atalanta #Cremonese #AtalantaCremonese #SerieA #Calcio

— Football Italia (@footballitalia) September 11, 2022

All in all, the difference for me is that Roma is underperforming right now, while Atalanta is overperforming. At the Stadio Olimpico, I am going to ride with Roma and hope their luck starts to turn.

Roma vs Atalanta Projected Lineups and Injuries

Roma Projected Lineup: Patricio, Spinazzola, Ibanez, Smalling, Mancini, Karsdorp, Matic, Cristante, Pellegrini, Abraham, Dybala

Injuries & Absences: Wijnaldum, Zalewski, El Shaarawy, Kumbulla, Darboe

Atalanta Projected Lineup: Musso, Soppy, Toloi, Demiral, Okoli, Hateboer, de Roon, Koopmeiners, Lookman, Malinovskyi, Muriel

Injuries & Absences: Zapata, Djimsiti, Muratore, Palomino

Roma vs Atalanta Prediction

Finally, while I have laid out a few interesting plays, my best bet in this match is the Roma moneyline at +111. Despite Atalanta’s away success, I think Roma will have just a slight edge in their attack on Sunday afternoon.

Pick: Roma moneyline (+111)