France vs Portugal Predictions, Picks, Best Odds & Betting Trends (July 5)
- Portugal vs France highlights the Euro 2024 quarterfinals on Friday, July 5
- The teams’ round of 16 matches combined for just one goal and Portugal has been held off the scoreboard in two straight
- See the Portugal vs France predictions, expert picks, and best odds for Friday’s game in Hamburg
Two teams that have looked less than compelling during Euro 2024 meet in the quarterfinals on Friday, July 5, when Portugal (2-1-1) face France (2-2-0) at Volksparkstadion in Hamburg with a spot in the semifinals awaiting the winner.
Kickoff is scheduled for 3:00 pm ET and the winner will face either Spain or Germany in the semis on Tuesday, July 9.
France is a slight favorite to advance, priced at +141 to win in regular time and -145 to qualify for the semifinals. Portugal’s odds to win in regular time are sitting at +264 while their odds to advance are +124. A full-time draw is +202.
Portugal vs France Picks & Predictions
- First half under 0.5 (+150) at FanDuel and Caesars Sportsbook
- France to advance (-145) at DraftKings
Sascha Paruk’s 2024 Euro/Copa America betting record: 30-13-1 (+18.53 units)
All wagers one unit unless expressly stated otherwise.
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Both teams were less than convincing in their round of 16 victories. France was locked in a low-event, 0-0 tie with Belgium until the 85th minute when a Jan Vertonghen own-goal handed Les Bleus the win. Portugal, meanwhile, couldn’t solve Jan Oblak and the Slovenian defense during a nil-nil draw that lasted through 30 minutes of extra time, but a brilliant performance from keeper Diogo Costa in the penalty shootout allowed the Portuguese to advance.
That was the second straight game Portugal failed to score, having also been blanked 2-0 by Georgia in the final game of the group stage. The dry spell was unexpected after Portugal led UEFA in goals during qualifying (36 goals for) and put five in the back of the next during group-stage wins over Czechia (2-1) and Turkiye (3-0).
Portugal was unlucky not to tally against Georgia (ranked 74th in the world), generating 1.55 xGF over the course of 90 minutes. But the majority of their prime scoring opportunities came late in the game when they were already trailing 2-0 and Georgia was sitting back. Cristiano Ronaldo and company were then limited to 0.99 xGF over 90 minutes by Slovenia (ranked 57th in the world), and the all-time leading Euro goalscorer showed signs of fallibility, sending multiple free kicks from dangerous positions sailing over the bar or into the wall and missing a penalty in extra time.
While France’s lack of offense (three goals in four games) has been a concern, they certainly deserved to progress. During the group stage, they generated 5.83 xGF over 270 minutes while allowing just 2.18 xGA, despite finishing with just a +1 goal difference (2 GF, 1 GA). That trend continued in the round of 16 against Belgium, when they generated 1.36 GF compared to a miniscule 0.26 xGF for the Belgians. The shots attempts ended up 20-6 in favor of France, though Les Bleus only put two on target.
Midfielder Antoine Rabiot picked up another yellow card and is suspended for the Portugal game. Real Madrid’s Eduardo Camavinga is expected to take his place in the starting XI.
On the whole, there has been more to like about France’s performance so far than Portugal’s. They have controlled the play/been the better team in all four of their matches to date, including a nil-nil draw with a very good Netherlands team.
Portugal dominated a weak qualifying group that didn’t include any other teams ranked higher than 45th in the world, and that luck continued in the group stage, lumped with Czechia (34th), Turkiye (42nd), and Georgia. The last time Portugal played a top-15 team was a pre-tournament friendly against Croatia (#9), when they suffered a 2-1 defeat at home. Prior to that was a 1-0 loss to Morocco (#11) in the quarterfinals of the 2022 World Cup.
Making matters worse, Portugal is just 1-2-11 against France in the last 14 head-to-head matchups.
Portugal’s defense has looked suspect over the last 180 minutes and Mbappe/Griezmann/Thuram will eventually puncture it, while I don’t expect the same from the Portuguese attack against a French defense that has yet to conceded from open play.
Best Portugal vs France Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Total | To Advance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Portugal | +262 | Over 2.5 (+142) | +130 |
| France | +141 | Under 2.5 (-174) | -145 |
| Draw | +202 | — | — |
The best three-way moneyline odds are available via bet365’s “Enhanced Moneyline” where a France win is +141, a Portugal victory is +264, and the draw is +202.
The best prices on both over 2.5 goals and under 2.5 goals are at FanDuel, where the over is +142 and the unde ris -174.
If you are looking to bet France to advance, you will want to capitalize on the -145 odds at DraftKings. Anyone targeting Portugal to advance should head to FanDuel where the line is sitting at +130.
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Sascha was a hockey player in his youth, a lawyer in his capricious mid-20s, and has been with SBD since 2014. He specializes in football, basketball, politics, baseball, and hockey.
