Philadelphia Union vs LAFC Odds & Prediction – CONCACAF Champions League Semifinals Leg 1

• The Philadelphia Union hosts LAFC in the first leg of their CONCACAF Champions League semifinal tie on Wednesday, April 26th, at 9:00 pm ET
• Philadelphia and Los Angeles respectively took down Atlas FC and the Vancouver Whitecaps in the quarterfinals
• Get our Philadelphia Union vs LAFC prediction and odds below

The CONCACAF Champions League returns this week, with the Philadelphia Union vs LAFC serving as Wednesday’s lone contest. The only two remaining MLS sides will battle through two legs for a place in the final, where they will meet either Leon or Tigres UANL. This will guarantee an MLS team makes the final, a feat that has only happened on three other occasions. It’s the Union, who are home favorites in the Philadelphia Union vs LAFC odds on Wednesday.

First, the teams meet at Subaru Park in Chester, Pennsylvania, which will be followed by the second leg in Los Angeles next Tuesday. This is simply not a venue LAFC will be happy about traveling to first. The Union are 15-6-1 at Subaru Park in MLS play over the last two seasons, while LAFC have an away record of 9-5-7 over the same span. While LAFC is undefeated this year, this marks their first visit to Philadelphia since their infamous penalty shootout victory against the Union in the 2022 MLS Cup Final. Revenge will be on the cards, which means anything can happen. Keep reading for the Philadelphia Union vs LAFC odds and predictions below.

Philadelphia Union vs LAFC Odds

Overall, Philadelphia are the moneyline favorites with +110 odds at home. Conversely, LAFC have extremely valuable odds of +225, giving them an implied win probably of 30.7%. This notion of LAFC being heavy underdogs is still a bit surprising considering Philadelphia’s win percentage across all competitions this year only sits at 38.5%. Moreover, their record across their last five head-to-head contests with LAFC sits at a meager 0-3-2. While I think Jim Curtin’s squad can pull out a result in the first leg, I am not nearly as confident as the odds are.

Odds as of  April 26th from DraftKings Sportsbook. Want a great soccer bonus for the CONCACAF Champions League?

Philadelphia Union vs LAFC Over/Under

Furthermore, this game is expected to be exciting on the goal front. The over on 2.5 total goals sits at a juicy -140, while the reverse option at the same total sits at even money (+100). All but one of their last five head-to-head duels have surpassed this total, averaging 4.6 total goals per match. Additionally, across all their matches in the MLS this season, these sides are hitting the over on 2.5 goals 58.8% of the time.

There's a lot on line on Wednesday night.

This time at Subaru Park. This time in @TheChampions Semifinals.#DOOP pic.twitter.com/OTiVfvxoGP

— Philadelphia Union (@PhilaUnion) April 24, 2023

Despite this being a first leg contest, I feel as though Philadelphia will think they need to blow the roof off of the building to have a chance. A “we know you will score, but we will score more” mentality could very well take over in this one.

Philadelphia Union vs LAFC Props – Philly to Score Twice

In turn, I favor the idea of Philly scoring multiple times on Wednesday night. The odds for them to do so sit at -110, which is not bad considering this has hit in 46% of their matches across all competitions this year. Considering implied win probability (52.4%), this might be slightly overpriced, but not enough to avoid it.

Philadelphia Union vs LAFC Projected Lineups and Injuries

Philadelphia Union Projected Lineup: Blake, Wagner, Elliot, Glesnes, Harriel, McGlynn, Martinez, Bedoya, Gazdag, Uhre, Carranza

Major Injuries & Absences: Flach, Lowe

LAFC Projected Lineup: McCarthy, Palacios, Long, Murillo, Hollingshead, Acosta, Sanchez, Cifuentes, Bouanga, Opoku, Vela

Major Injuries & Absences: Tillman, Crepeau

Daniel Gazdag Can Help Turn the Key for Philadelphia

For me, the x-factor in this match is Daniel Gazdag. It goes without saying, LAFC have their standouts too in Carlos Vela and Denis Bouanga. They are great players, but the duo only have three combined goals to their name away from home. As a result, I think they have less of an impact than Gazdag, who has the most likely odds to score at +375.

Philadelphia Union vs LAFC Head-to-Head Statistics

Stats in the table from 2022/23 MLS play.

The Hungarian has scored in his last two games against LAFC, making him a prime candidate to find his way on the scoresheet once again. Not to mention the fact, he can score from so many areas. As a central playmaker, he can turn the key against tricky defenses, which is such an asset for the Union. He also is the penalty taker, which boosts this play in our favor. While I am unsure of the result on Wednesday, I am more than willing to test a play on him scoring anytime at +375.

Philadelphia Union vs LAFC Prediction

Overall, I am riding with Philadelphia to score over 1.5 goals (-110) and Daniel Gazdag to score anytime at +375 for my Philadelphia Union vs LAFC prediction.

Philadelphia Union vs LAFC Picks: Philadelphia to score over 1.5 goals (-110), Gazdag to score (+375)

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