Netherlands vs France Predictions, Picks, Odds & Lineups for Euro 2024 (June 21)
- Netherlands and France battle for first place in Group D on Friday at Euro 2024
- France won two meetings against the Netherlands in 2023
- See the Netherlands vs France odds, predictions, betting trends, and starting lineups on June 21
First place in Group D is on the line when the Netherlands (1-0-0) meet France (1-0-0) at Red Bull Arena in Leipzig at 3:00 pm ET on Friday, June 22. A win for either side would guarantee them top spot in the quartet and a berth in the round of 16.
French striker Kylian Mbappe is expected to be in the starting lineup – avec face protection – after suffering a broken nose in France’s 1-0 win over Austria on Monday. The Netherlands, who came back from a 1-0 deficit to beat Poland 2-1 on Sunday, have an extra day of rest in their legs, but oddsmakers still give world #2 France the edge in Thursday’s Euro 2024 odds.
Netherlands vs France Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Netherlands | +260 | Over 2.5 (+100) |
| France | +115 | Under 2.5 (-125) |
| Draw | +225 | N/A |
Les Bleus are +115 favorites to pick up the full three points with the Netherlands at +260 and the draw at +225. The over/under is set at 2.5 goals with the under slightly favored at -125.
SPORTSBOOK
Odds as of June 21 at bet365. See how to land bet365 free bets for Euro 2024.
France is also the outright favorite in the Euro 2024 odds at +370. The Netherlands are the sixth-favorite at a considerably longer +1475.
While France won their opener, they didn’t actually get a goal off of their own boots. The lone tally in their 1-0 over Austria was an own goal from defender Maximilian Wober. France produced four shots on target and did have a significant edge in Expected Goals For (1.77 to 0.89), according to xgscore.io.
Netherland vs France Projected Lineups
| Netherlands | France |
|---|---|
| Bart Verbruggen (GK) | Mike Maignan (GK) |
| Nathan Ake (LB) | Theo Hernandez (LB) |
| Virgil van Dijk (CB) | Dayot Upamecano (CB) |
| Stefan de Vrij (CB) | William Saliba (CB) |
| Denzel Dumfries (RB) | Jules Kounde (RB) |
| Joey Veerman (LMF) | Adrien Rabiot (LMF) |
| Tijjani Reijnders(CMF) | N’Golo Kante(CMF) |
| Jerdy Schouten (RMF) | Antoine Griezmann (RMF) |
| Cody Gakpo (LW) | Marcus Thuram (LW) |
| Xavi Simons (RW) | Ousmane Dembele (RW) |
| Memphis Depay (STR) | Kylian Mbappe (STR) |
The Netherlands were involved in a considerably more open game with Poland. Their elite backline conceded in the 16th minute but Cody Gakpo answered back in the 29th before substitute Wout Weghorst potted the winner in the 83rd. The Dutch had 65% of possession and fired 20 shot attempts but only four were on target.
Netherlands Last 10 Matches
| Opponent | Opp. FIFA Rank | Date | Location | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Poland | 26 | Jun 16, 2024 | Neutral | W 2-1 |
| Iceland | 70 | Jun 10, 2024 | Home | W 4-0 |
| Canada | 48 | Jun 6, 2024 | Home | W 4-0 |
| Germany | 16 | Mar 26, 2024 | Away | L 2-1 |
| Scotland | 39 | Mar 22, 2024 | Home | W 4-0 |
| Gibraltar | 198 | Nov 21, 2023 | Away | W 6-0 |
| Ireland | 60 | Nov 18, 2023 | Home | W 1-0 |
| Greece | 51 | Oct 16, 2023 | Away | W 1-0 |
| France | 2 | Oct 13, 2023 | Home | L 2-1 |
| Ireland | 60 | Sep 10, 2023 | Away | W 2-1 |
With the win over Poland, Netherlands improved its record to 8-0-2 in its last ten matches, including friendlies. Their last setback was a highly respectable 2-1 loss away at Germany on March 26. However, they also lost their last meeting with France 2-1 at home last October.
France Last 10 Matches
| Opponent | Opp. FIFA Rank | Date | Location | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austria | 33 | June 16, 2024 | Neutral | W 1-0 |
| Canada | 72 | Jun 7, 2024 | Home | D 0-0 |
| Luxembourg | 74 | Jun 5, 2024 | Home | W 3-0 |
| Chile | 3 | Mar 26, 2024 | Home | W 3-2 |
| Germany | 5 | Mar 23, 2024 | Home | L 2-0 |
| Greece | 69 | Nov 21, 2023 | Away | D 2-2 |
| Gibraltar | 171 | Nov 18, 2023 | Home | W 14-0 |
| Scotland | 9 | Oct 17, 2023 | Home | W 4-1 |
| Netherlands | 24 | Oct 13, 2023 | Away | W 2-1 |
| Germany | 39 | Sep 12, 2023 | Away | L 2-1 |
France is only 6-2-2 over its last ten matches with a pair of losses to Germany (home and away), plus draws with Greece (2-2 away) and Canada (0-0 home).
Netherlands vs France Prediction
France got the better of the Netherlands both times they met in qualifying (2-1 away, 4-0 home) but I expect a different outcome on Thursday. The Netherlands have been on an absolute tear over the past few months, the setback to Germany notwithstanding. They boast arguably the best backline in the tournament (Nathan Ake, Virgil van Dijk, Stefan de Vrij, and Denzel Dumfries) and the French attack has looked a little out of sorts in its last few matches.
With Mbappe less than 100%, look for the Netherlands to pull at least a point out of Thursday’s match and keep their hopes of topping the group alive.
Netherlands vs France picks:
- Netherlands moneyline or draw (-165)
- Under 2.5 goals (-125)
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Sascha has been working in the sports-betting industry since 2014, and quickly paired his strong writing skills with a burgeoning knowledge of probability and statistics. He holds an undergraduate degree in linguistics and a Juris Doctor from the University of British Columbia.
