Milan vs Benfica Predictions, Expert Picks & Odds for the UEFA Europa League
By Miguel Alvim in Soccer News
Published:
- Milan vs Benfica prediction: Milan favorite to win (moneyline +117 at Kalshi)
- BTTS prediction: Both Teams to Score — Yes (-150 at Kalshi)
- Over 2.5 Goals: -133 at Polymarket
Milan begin their UEFA Europa League league-phase campaign on Wednesday, September 16, at 3:00 PM ET (9:00 PM CEST) at San Siro. It is the Rossoneri’s first Europa League campaign since 2020/21 and their first European fixture under Rúben Amorim. Milan have opened the Serie A season unbeaten (2-2-0), although consecutive draws against Juventus and Lazio suggest their performances have not yet been entirely convincing.
Milan’s unbeaten start and home advantage make them worth considering on the moneyline, while Benfica’s attacking form and recent both-teams-to-score trends point toward an entertaining contest.
Milan vs Benfica Odds
Odds as of September 15 at DraftKings.
DraftKings lists Milan as a narrow home favorite, with Benfica priced as a +240 road underdog. The Over 2.5 goals market is also priced at -140, reflecting Benfica’s recent scoring form and both teams’ BTTS trends.
As you’ll see below, better prices are available at prediction markets for several of these bets.
For future betting markets, check out our dedicated page for Europa League futures odds.
Milan vs Benfica Picks & Analysis
- Best bet: Milan moneyline (+117 at Kalshi)
- Secondary lean: Both Teams to Score — Yes (-150 at Kalshi)
- Goals lean: Over 2.5 total goals (-133 at Polymarket)
Milan’s unbeaten league start, four-match UEFA home unbeaten run and perfect historical record against Benfica make the +117 moneyline worth considering. Amorim also brings extensive Europa League experience, having led Manchester United to the 2024/25 final.
The main concern is that Milan have repeatedly needed second-half goals, while Benfica have scored 25 times during their seven-game winning streak. That makes the moneyline the primary pick, with BTTS and Over 2.5 goals serving as secondary angles.
Milan vs Benfica News and Current Form
Milan trailed Lazio 2-0 at halftime on Saturday before Diego Moreira scored twice after the break to secure a 2-2 draw. Christian Pulisic also impressed after coming off the bench, and both players are candidates to start against Benfica. Milan have yet to score before halftime in any of their four competitive matches under Amorim, while 10 of their last 12 competitive goals have come after the 60-minute mark.
Home advantage could be important: Milan are unbeaten in their last four UEFA matches at San Siro, winning three. Their recent European matches have also been open, with both teams scoring in seven of their last 10. Those trends support Milan in the moneyline market while also making BTTS and Over 2.5 goals appealing secondary angles.
Benfica enter the match in strong form. Marco Silva’s side beat Gil Vicente 3-1 last weekend for their seventh straight win in all competitions. Their Europa League qualifying run included aggregate victories over St. Gallen, Hearts and Aarhus, and the Portuguese club has scored at least three goals in eight of its last 11 competitive matches. Benfica have also won their last four away games, although their qualifying away record was less convincing at 1-1-1.
The Eagles’ attack is led by Vangelis Pavlidis, with Rafa Silva and Andreas Schjelderup providing width and Gianluca Prestianni adding creativity. Pavlidis scored six times during qualifying, while Prestianni has made a productive start to the season. Rafa has also scored three of his last four goals within the opening 15 minutes, which could be significant against a Milan side that has been slow out of the gate.
Milan vs Benfica Head-to-Head History
This is the first competitive meeting between the clubs since 2007. Milan are unbeaten in six major European meetings with Benfica, winning four and drawing two. That record includes victories over the Portuguese side in the 1963 and 1990 European Cup finals, a 2-0 home win in the 1994/95 Champions League quarterfinals and a 2-1 home victory in the 2007/08 group stage. The last meeting ended 1-1 in Lisbon.
Milan’s strong head-to-head record adds to their case at San Siro, although the historical results do not necessarily point to a low-scoring game. Benfica have seen both teams score in seven of their last 10 matches, while Milan have recorded the same outcome in seven of their last 10 European fixtures.
Milan vs Benfica Projected Lineups
Milan are expected to have no major absences, with Matteo Gabbia back in full training after a lengthy absence. Moreira and Pulisic are candidates to enter the starting lineup after making an impact off the bench against Lazio. The projected 3-4-2-1 lineup is: Mike Maignan; Mario Gila, Koni De Winter, Strahinja Pavlovic; Samuel Chukwueze, Yunus Musah, Adrien Rabiot, Diego Moreira; Christian Pulisic, Alphadjo Cisse; Gonçalo Ramos.
Benfica’s main confirmed absence is right-back Alexander Bah, who is dealing with a shoulder injury. Fredrik Aursnes could fill in at right-back, with João Palhinha and Leandro Barreiro anchoring a 4-2-3-1 behind Rafa Silva, Prestianni, Schjelderup and Pavlidis. The projected lineup is: Samuel Soares; Aursnes, Tomás Araújo, Clément Lenglet, Samuel Dahl; Palhinha, Barreiro; Rafa Silva, Prestianni, Schjelderup; Pavlidis.
Tactical Outlook
The key tactical question is whether Milan can withstand Benfica’s early pressure and then use possession at San Siro to control the second half. If the hosts avoid another slow start, their home advantage could help them control the match. If Benfica score first, their current attacking form could make this a high-scoring contest.
With more than a decade of experience as a writer, editor, and content manager, Miguel has built a career creating engaging sports content for international audiences. He is multilingual journalist with a strong passion for numerous sports, especially soccer.
