Mexico vs Ecuador Predictions, Odds & Picks for Copa America (June 30)

• Tied for second in Group B, Mexico and Ecuador meet for a berth in the quarterfinals of the 2024 Copa America
• Ecuador would advance with a draw due to a better goal differential
• See the Mexico vs Ecuador odds, predictions, and best bets for Sunday, June 30, at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, AZ

The favorites to win Group B at the outset of the 2024 Copa America, Mexico (1-0-1, 3 PTS, +0 goal differential) risk crashing out in the group stage unless they can take the full three points from Ecuador (1-0-1, 3 PTS, +1 goal differential) on Sunday night at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona (6:00 pm MT/8:00 pm ET).

Both teams trail group-leading Venezuela (2-0-0, 6 PTS), which is already assured a top-two finish and passage to the knockout stage, while point-less Jamaica (0-0-2, 0 PTS) is eliminated.

Unfortunately for El Tri and their faithful, the Mexico vs Ecuador odds aren’t overly optimistic that the Mexicans will get the points they need.

Mexico vs Ecuador Odds

The three-way moneyline lists Mexico as a +180 underdog to win with an Ecuador victory slightly shorter at +175 and the draw at +195. The over/under goal total heavily favors under 2.5 (-180) with the over at +150.

Both of Ecuador’s games – a 2-1 loss to Venezuela and a 3-1 win over Jamaica – went over 2.5 while Mexico’s first two matches featured just one goal apiece: a 1-0 win over Jamaica and a 1-0 loss to Venezuela, in which Mexico missed a would-be equalizer from the penalty spot in the 87th minute.

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There is a big odds boost for Mexico vs Ecuador at Caesars Sportsbook : all users can wager on a 2-0 Ecuador victory at +1400 odds, boosted from +1200.

The 2024 Copa America odds currently list Mexico as the +2700 fifth-favorite to win the tournament. Ecuador is seventh at +16000. Neither team has ever won the tournament. Mexico has finished runner-up twice (1993, 2001).

Mexico Recent Results

Mexico’s middling run of form has continued in the first 180 minutes of Copa America play. They could only muster a 1-0 win over Jamaica as heavy favorites – and were briefly trailing 1-0 early in the second half before a Jamaica goal was ruled out for offside. The scoring woes continued last time out against Venezuela in a 1-0 loss.

Despite firing 17 shots at goal (seven on target) and getting a late penalty, Rafael Romo was able to keep a clean sheet for the Venezuelans. Substitute forward Orbelin Pineda had his weak penalty effort saved in the bottom right corner.

Monterrey defender Gerardo Arteaga has Mexico’s only goal of the tournament so far, an absolute screamer from the top of the box in the 69th minute against Jamaica.

WHAT A GOLAZO FROM GERARDO ARTEAGA OMG 🇲🇽🚀 pic.twitter.com/Wv3MCG8Oeb

— Roberto Rojas (@RobertoRojas97) June 23, 2024

Ecuador Recent Results

Ecuador was a slight favorite to beat Venezuela in their tournament opener, but that quickly changed when star striker Enner Valencia picked up a red card early in the first half. Brighton forward Jeremy Sarmiento still managed to give Ecuador a 1-0 lead in the dying moments of the first half, but Venezuela responded with a pair in a dominant second-half performance.

Ecuador stayed disciplined and got back on track against Jamaica (3-1) on Wednesday. After an own goal from Jamaica defender Kasey Palmer staked Ecuador to a 1-0 lead in the 13th minute, 17-year-old Kendry Paez made it 2-0 from the spot shortly before halftime.

Substitute Alan Minda (90+1) added late insurance after West Ham’s Michail Antonio clawed one for Jamaica early in the second half.

Mexico vs Ecuador Prediction

While Mexico have had zero luck in front of goal, they have at least been generating a ton of chances. They finished the Venezuela game with 2.99 xGF to just 1.09 for Venezuela (the vast majority of which came from Salomon Rondon’s converted penalty in the 57th minute). Mexico also dominated possession (59-41%) and shots (11 to 4 on target) against Jamaica and were full value for the victory.

Playing in Arizona will feel like a semi-home game for El Tri, and given that Ecuador have conceded at least once in six straight games, I expect Mexico to at least muster the first goal of the match as they play on the front foot.

MEX vs ECU picks:

• Mexico to score first goal (+100)
• Mexico: draw no bet (-115)

Sascha Paruk’s 2024 Euro/Copa America betting record: 23-7 (+18.36 units)

All wagers one unit unless expressly stated otherwise.