Lazio vs AC Milan Odds & Picks – Serie A Week 19 (Jan 24)

• Lazio hosts AC Milan in Serie A Week 19 play on Tuesday, January 24th at 2:45 pm ET
• AC Milan currently sits in second place, 12 points back off league leaders Napoli
• Get more Lazio vs AC Milan odds and predictions below

The Serie A matchweek ends on Tuesday as Lazio vs AC Milan wraps up an eventful weekend of Italian football. Most notably, Juventus were docked 15 points for false accounting, which opens up a massive gap in the table.

AC Milan comes into this match with more breathing room in second place, on a solid tally of 38 points and third place in the Serie A odds. Still, the Rossoneri are winless in their last four across all competitions and face a 12-point gap to first place as Napoli leads the charge for the Scudetto.

On the other hand, top four is now within reach for Mauricio Sarri and Lazio. I Biancocelesti currently sit in sixth place, just three points away from a Champions League qualification spot. Moreover, a win at the Stadio Olimpico on Tuesday in the Lazio vs AC Milan picks would put them at 37 points through the halfway point. This would put them on a 74-point pace, ten better than their fifth-place finish in 2021/22.

Lazio vs AC Milan Odds

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All in all, AC Milan are the favorites in this Serie A contest, with moneyline odds of +130 in the Lazio vs AC Milan odds. While this seems like a valuable play on the defending champions, their 4-4-1 away record says otherwise. While Lazio have only won one of their last four head-to-head meetings with AC Milan, they have not lost three consecutive Serie A matches to them since 2008/09. Given their poor run of form since the restart, do not count Lazio out here.

Ready to bounce back: #LazioMilan awaits 👊 #SempreMilan
Brought to you by @play_eFootball pic.twitter.com/n2VjCvNrnT

— AC Milan (@acmilan) January 21, 2023

Lazio vs AC Milan Over/Under

Next, this Lazio vs AC Milan match is expected to stay rather tame on the goal front. The under on 2.5 total goals has odds of -110, while the over on the same tally sits at a nearly equal -115. In recent history, this matchup has leaned towards the over on 2.5 goals, hitting in 60% of their last ten encounters across all competitions.

Lazio vs AC Milan Statistics

Stats in the table from 2022/23 Serie A play.

Both Teams to Score Odds

Still, Lazio have held 12 cleans sheets this year and will be facing Olivier Giroud up top, a striker who has not scored in his last six matches for AC Milan. While the over/under might be too close to call, favor “no” on both teams to score instead, with great odds at +125. This Lazio vs AC Milan pick has hit in three of their last four head-to-heads and could easily be triggered by either side.

🎥 @F_Andersoon ci fa volare ai quarti di finale
Gli highlights di #LazioBologna 👇https://t.co/DwQwYiv1C6

— S.S.Lazio (@OfficialSSLazio) January 20, 2023

While Giroud’s slump is notable, the absence of Ciro Immobile for Lazio is even more concerning. The Italian has seven goals in 13 starts (0.62 goals per ninety minutes) and is the life of Sarri’s attack. In turn, this is a smart play that has a higher potential than its 44% implied win probability. Milan will probably have a harder time scoring, but needing only one team to be shut out gives this play a little risk protection.

Lazio vs AC Milan Projected Lineups and Injuries

Lazio Projected Lineup: Provedel, Marusic, Romagnoli, Casale, Hysaj, Cataldi, Alberto, Milinkovic-Savic, Zaccagni, Anderson, Pedro

Major Injuries & Absences: Immobile, Gila

AC Milan Projected Lineup: Tatarusanu, Hernandez, Tomori, Kalulu, Calabria, Bennacer, Tonali, Leao, Diaz, Saelemaekers, Giroud

Major Injuries & Absences: Maignan, Florenzi, Ballo, Ibrahimovic

AC Milan’s Goalkeeper Dilemma

While “no” on both teams to score is a valuable play in the Lazio vs AC Milan odds, I do think there is a winner in Lazio vs AC Milan. Furthermore, I think that winner will be Lazio. They should be able to take advantage of Milan’s miserable goalkeeping situation at the moment. The Rossoneri have conceded in six straight and now look at Ciprian Tătărușanu between the sticks.

The Romanian has a 51st percentile post-shot expected goals minus goals allowed mark and has conceded nine times in 2023, from just 16 on-target shots.

Lazio vs AC Milan Prediction

AC Milan have a liability in their most important position, in a period where their form is mediocre at best. Sadly, when it rains it pours, which is why I think Lazio will win this match at home. I like the Lazio moneyline (+195) and the “no” on both teams to score (+125), which provides some valuable hedging in case this goes the other way.

Lazio vs AC Milan Picks: Lazio Moneyline (+195) & “No” on BTTS (+125)