Juventus vs AC Milan Odds & Prediction – Serie A Week 37 Picks
By Josh Ricker in Soccer News
Published:
- Juventus hosts AC Milan in the 37th Serie A matchday on Sunday, May 28th, at 2:45 pm ET
- In last five head-to-head meetings, Milan have the advantage with a 2-2-1 record against the Old Lady
- Get our Juventus vs AC Milan prediction and odds below
Juventus hosts AC Milan on Sunday in their penultimate match of the Serie A season. A points deduction has the Old Lady all the way down in seventh place in the Italian top flight, but top four is still mathematically possible. Read on for an analysis of the Juventus vs AC Milan Odds.
In fact, two wins to end the season coinciding with two AC Milan losses would do the job. Continue reading for the Juventus vs AC Milan odds and predictions!
Juventus vs AC Milan Odds
| Matchup | Moneyline Odds |
|---|---|
| Juventus | +130 |
| AC Milan | +195 |
| Draw | +230 |
Overall, Juventus are the favorites at home with moneyline odds of +130; these odds represent an implied win probability of 43.5%. Massimiliano Allegri’s men have played well at home this season, accumulating a 13-3-2 record in Turin. While AC Milan have a recent head-to-head advantage, they have been poor on the road in Serie A going just 6-6-6 this season. Be sure to check out our Serie A odds page for more featured odds and futures.
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🗣️ "We want to seal Champions League qualification tomorrow"
The gaffer's message ahead of #JuveMilan🗣️ "Vogliamo vincere per chiudere il discorso Champions"
Le parole del Mister in vista della Juve#SempreMilan
Brought to you by @play_eFootball pic.twitter.com/nKVStctzVv— AC Milan (@acmilan) May 27, 2023
Nonetheless, AC Milan’s chances should not be totally discounted. They still have Atalanta and Roma trailing behind them in fifth and fourth place, respectively. As a result, a strong finish is required to avoid falling into an inferior European competition. Moreover, Juventus are not on the best of form either after consecutive losses at the hands of Sevilla and Empoli.
Juventus vs AC Milan – Over/Under Odds
Additionally, this match is expected to stay under the 2.5 total goal mark. That play is a little juicy at -135, while the over on the same total sits at +110. To be fair, the over has only hit in 30% of their last ten combined matches across all competitions and in 33% of their last 12 head-to-head matches. For me, the under is a bit too juiced for a play here, especially when considering late-season circumstances.
Juventus vs AC Milan Props – Both Teams Will Get on the Scoresheet
Instead, a play I really like for Sunday afternoon is both teams to score which boasts -125 odds. We have faded both teams to score a lot in the back half of this season, and it has worked quite well. With that being said, Juventus have been sloppy as of late, conceding goals in eight of their last ten. Both teams to score has actually hit in five of their last seven matches as well, making this a promising play.
Juventus vs AC Milan Head-to-Head Statistics
| 1.53 | Goals per game | 1.67 |
| 1.48 | Expected goals per game | 1.56 |
| 0.89 | Goals allowed per game | 1.17 |
| 1.12 | Expected goals allowed per game | 1.09 |
| 49.2% | Possession % | 55.1% |
| 52.8% | Clean Sheet % | 30.6% |
| 13.9 | Shots per game | 14.7 |
| L-L-W-D-W | Recent Form Guide (All Comps) | W-L-L-L-W |
Stats in the table from 2022/23 Serie A play.
The Rossoneri Will Squeak Out a Victory
My gut is telling me AC Milan can win three points on Sunday. While I am not confident enough for a full moneyline play, their draw-no-bet odds sit at +115, which is still quite valuable.
All in all, Juventus are just a broken team right now. Their points deduction was finalized earlier this week, they crashed out of the Europa League and several key talents like Nicolo Fagioli and Dusan Vlahovic will be sitting on Sunday. While they are favorites, it feels like they have more stacked against them at the moment. Top four is probably a pipe dream at this point too, which gives them little to no motivation here.
On the other hand, AC Milan have to defend their position in the table. Even though they have recently been volatile, head-to-head history proves they have a chance. With Rafael Leao healthy too, anything can happen.
Juventus vs AC Milan Projected Lineups and Injuries
Juventus Projected Lineup: Szczesny, Kostic, Sandro, Bremer, Gatti, Barbieri, Rabiot, Locatelli, Miretti, Chiesa, Milik
Major Injuries & Absences: Bonucci (questionable), Vlahovic (questionable), Pogba, Fagioli, De Sciglio, Jorge
AC Milan Projected Lineup: Maignan, Hernandez, Thiaw, Tomori, Calabria, Tonali, Krunic, Leao, Diaz, Saelemaekers, Giroud
Major Injuries & Absences: Bennacer, Florenzi, Ibrahimovic
Juventus vs AC Milan Prediction
To conclude, I am riding with the AC Milan draw no bet (+115) and both teams to score (-125).
Juventus vs AC Milan Picks: AC Milan draw no bet (+115), BTTS (-125)
Sports Writer
Josh Ricker is a freelance sports journalist, currently attending the University of Southern Maine (Bachelor of Science in Sports Management and Marketing). He has recently interned with the AA Portland Sea Dogs, and his work has been featured on Fansided, as well as now here on SBD.
