Italy vs England Prediction, Odds, Lineups – Euro 2024 Qualifying

• It’s Italy vs England on Matchday 1 of Euro 2024 qualifying on Thursday, March 23
• England start the game as narrow plus-money favorites
• Find our Italy vs England prediction below, where we look at the odds and offer some picks

It’s Italy vs England in the first qualifying round of Euro 2024 qualifiers on Thursday, March 23. Kick-off in the Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, Naples is at 4:00 pm ET. The visitors start as plus-money favorites but are they the best bet for your Italy vs England prediction?

It’s been a tricky couple of seasons for Roberto Mancini’s men, who won the delayed Euro 2020 – beating England in the final –  but then failed to qualify for Qatar 2022.

We preview our Italy vs England picks, look at the odds, and offer some analysis, team news, and Italy vs England predictions below.

Italy vs England Odds

England are listed as plus-money favorites at +150 with an implied probability of 40%. The Italians are pitched at +190 for the win with an implied probability of 34.5%. The draw is on offer at the best price of +210 in the Italy vs England odds, which is implied at 32%.

Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook on March 22.

Italy vs England Over/Under and Spread

With the benchmark at 2.5 goals, the bookies have pitched the under at -170 and the over at a far more tempting +120.

Italy vs England Preview

The Italians have been plagued by inconsistency over the last few seasons. The winners of Euro 2020 – played in 2021 because of the pandemic – managed then to miss out on the 2022 World Cup finals after losing to North Macedonia in a playoff game. They are reunited with the North Macedonians in this qualifying campaign.

The Italians’ disappointment was compounded when they lost 3-0 to Argentina in the Finalissima in June 2022 – a playoff between the winners of the Copa América and UEFA European Championship. But on a more positive note, they performed well in their Nations League group and have a semifinal against Spain upcoming in June.

One final session before we start our #EURO2024 campaign 💪 📹#ITAENG #Azzurri #VivoAzzurro pic.twitter.com/5wHtz1E4Ts

— Italy ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️ (@Azzurri_En) March 22, 2023

The Euros to the Liking of the Italians

The Azzurri also have an incredible recent record in the Euros where they have consecutively won their last 14 qualifying matches and are unbeaten in 40, going back to 2006. This competition, above all the others, is the one they have excelled in.

Their home record too in this competition is sensational as it has been 24 years since the current holders of the Euro crown last lost a qualifying tie on home oil – Denmark beating them 3-2 back in 1999.

Southgate’s Nearly Men

While the form of the Italians fluctuates from tournament to tournament, Gareth Southgate’s England team has built a reputation for being nearly men in their three most recent major tournaments.

A World Cup semifinal in the 2018 World Cup was followed by an unsuccessful Euro final when they lost to Italy on penalties. Then in last December’s World Cup in Qatar, they showed promise before being knocked out by France in the quarterfinals.

Fine-tuning in the gym 🙌 pic.twitter.com/YyaPAX9nbM

— England (@England) March 22, 2023

Impressive Euro Record for England Too

The one tournament in which Southgate’s men have failed is the Nations League where they have now been relegated to League B. But in the Euros, they boast a record not dissimilar to Italy’s, with 17 wins from their last 18 qualifying games. A win here in Naples would be Southgate’s 50th in charge of his national team.

England’s recent form against Italy will be a concern for Southgate though as they are without a win in their last six contests. Most recently, in their Nations League group, they played out a goalless draw at Wembley before losing 1-0 in Milan in the reverse fixture.

Italy vs England Team Lineups and Injuries

Italy Projected Lineup: Donnarumma, Di Lorenzo, Acerbi, Romagnoli, Spinazzola, Barella, Verratti, Jorginho, Berardi, Retegui, Grifo.

Injuries & absences: Chiesa, Dimarco, Provedel, Immobile, Raspadori.

England Projected Lineup: Pickford, Walker, Stones, Maguire, Shaw, Henderson, Rice, Bellingham, Saka, Kane, Grealish.

Injuries & absences: Pope, Rashford, Mount.

Italy vs England Head-to-Head Stats

Italy vs England Prediction

Italy’s chances of continuing their outstanding run of form in this competition have been hindered by injuries to key players, but England too come into this off the back of some mixed form.

With a point being an acceptable outcome for both teams in the circumstances, and it being the opening qualifying game, the value here is with the draw.

Italy vs England Picks: The draw (+210)