Croatia vs England Expert Picks & Odds (Nations League)
By Miguel Alvim in Soccer News
Published:
- England Moneyline (-117): England’s attacking volume makes the Three Lions the road favorite
- Over 2.5 Goals (-144): Both teams have shown defensive vulnerabilities in the Nations League
- England Over 1.5 Team Goals (-138): England’s shot volume supports a two-goal performance
Croatia hosts England on Saturday, October 3, 2026, in a UEFA Nations League matchup at Stadion HNK Rijeka. Kickoff is scheduled for 12:00 p.m. ET. Both teams enter the fixture with three points from their first two matches, holding identical 1-0-1 records. England sits 28th in the overall standings, two spots ahead of 30th-ranked Croatia.
Despite their identical records, England enters as the road favorite, led by star striker Harry Kane. Croatia will look to veteran midfielder Luka Modric and its experienced squad to make the most of home-field advantage. With both teams looking to improve their standing and avoid relegation, this matchup offers several intriguing betting opportunities.
Croatia vs England Odds
Prices as of October 2 at Kalshi (converted to American odds).
The current Kalshi market favors England, with the Three Lions carrying a 53.4% implied probability of winning after removing the vig. Croatia has a 22.8% implied chance of winning, while the draw is at 23.8%.
For a quick look at potential payouts, a $20 bet on England at -117 would return $37.09, including the original stake. A $20 wager on Croatia at +334 would return $86.80.
With England favored on the moneyline and the Over 2.5 goals market priced at -144, the odds point to several betting angles worth examining. Here’s a closer look at the potential value in Saturday’s matchup.
Top Croatia vs England Picks & Predictions
- England Moneyline (-117)
- Over 2.5 Total Goals (-144)
- England Over 1.5 Team Goals (-138)
I lead my betting card with an England moneyline pick. The underlying numbers favor the visitors, particularly in attacking production. England has recorded 33 shots across its first two matches and averages 57.5% possession. That combination suggests the Three Lions should see plenty of the ball and create more attacking opportunities.
Croatia, meanwhile, has conceded five goals in two matches, an average of 2.5 per game. That defensive record presents a favorable matchup for an England attack led by Harry Kane and Anthony Gordon, who have scored two goals each in the Nations League so far.
The numbers also point toward another high-scoring matchup. Croatia’s two Nations League games have both gone over 2.5 goals, with an average of 4.0 total goals per game. England’s matches have averaged 3.5 total goals, and neither team has recorded a clean sheet.
That makes Over 2.5 Total Goals at -144 another betting angle worth considering. When building your card at BetMGM, the tournament’s early results support the expectation of a high-scoring game.
Another betting angle is England Over 1.5 Team Goals at -138 at theScore Bet. England averages 5.5 shots on target per game, while Croatia has allowed five goals through its first two matches. With England generating significantly more attacking volume, the visitors have a strong statistical case to score at least twice.
Croatia vs England Head-to-Head History
England has the stronger record across the 12 meetings, with seven wins to Croatia’s three and two draws. England also won the most recent meeting, a 4-2 victory over Croatia in June 2026. The Three Lions also won 1-0 at Euro 2020.
The teams have produced several notable matches over the years, including England’s 2-1 Nations League win in November 2018 and Croatia’s 2-1 extra-time victory in the 2018 World Cup semifinal.
Last 12 H2H Meetings
England has generally had the better results in this matchup, although Croatia has shown it can beat the Three Lions on the biggest stage.
Croatia vs England Recent Form
Both teams have one win and one loss in the Nations League. England beat the Czech Republic 2-0 after a 3-2 loss to Spain, while Croatia opened with a 2-1 win over the Czechs before falling 4-1 to Spain.
The results highlight the attacking potential of both teams while also raising questions about their defensive consistency. Croatia will also have home-field advantage on Saturday.
Croatia vs England Stats Comparison
The current Nations League numbers show a clear difference in attacking production. The table below compares key statistics on a per-game basis, accounting for the small two-match sample.
The biggest statistical gap comes in shot volume. England averages 16.5 shots per game, more than twice Croatia’s 7.0. The Three Lions also have the edge in shots on target and possession, suggesting greater control of the game.
England’s 57.5% average possession suggests the visitors could control more of the ball and put sustained pressure on Croatia’s defense. However, these statistics come from only two matches, so they should be viewed as an early indication rather than a definitive measure of the teams’ overall strength.
Projected Croatia vs England Lineups and Injury Report
These are projected lineups and have not been officially confirmed. Croatia is expected to start Livakovic in goal, with Smolcic, Vuskovic and Gvardiol in defense. Perisic, Modric, Kovacic and L. Sucic are projected in midfield, while P. Sucic, Ivanovic and Budimir are expected to lead the attack.
England’s projected XI features Trafford in goal, with Alexander-Arnold, Chalobah, Guehi and Hall in defense. Anderson, Eze and Bellingham are expected in midfield, with Saka, Gordon and Kane up front.
Croatia’s reported absences include Erlic and Juranovic through injury, while Stanisic is listed with an illness. England could be without Burn (ankle), Henderson (foot), James and Palmer (muscle injuries), as well as Mainoo, O’Reilly, Livramento, Rashford, Rice, Spence and Stones.
With Kane, Saka and Bellingham in the projected lineup, England still has plenty of attacking talent. Croatia’s expected XI includes experienced players such as Modric and Perisic. Check the official team news before kickoff, as late changes to the lineups or injury status could affect the betting markets.
With more than a decade of experience as a writer, editor, and content manager, Miguel has built a career creating engaging sports content for international audiences. He is multilingual journalist with a strong passion for numerous sports, especially soccer.
