Opening Odds to Win 2020 Daytona 500: Logano Favored, Keselowski & Hamlin Close Behind

• Joey Logano has opened as the favorite to win the Daytona 500 at +900
• Denny Hamlin is the defending champion at the Daytona 500 after winning in 2019
• Read below for odds, analysis and drivers you should be targeting for a wager

As the calendar flips to 2020, it’s time to start getting excited about the upcoming NASCAR season. Although it feels like the NASCAR season just ended, the Daytona 500 is just over a month away. Joey Logano has opened as the favorite to win the race but will he close as the favorite? Let’s examine how these futures might move around.

2020 Daytona 500 Odds

Odds as of Jan. 3, 2020

Logano Opens as Daytona 500 Favorite

To some, it’s a bit of a surprise that Logano is the early favorite at the Daytona 500. After all, he hasn’t won at Daytona International Speedway since 2015. Since then, his results are 22nd, 6th, 4th, 6th, 35th, 4th, 39th, 4th and 25th. Keep in mind not all of those were the big race, but still, he doesn’t exactly thrive here.

Why he’s among the favorites becomes clearer when you filter out other races and only focus on the Daytona 500 results. He’s finished no worse than sixth and Logano has led 61 laps in that span, while also picking up the win in 2015.

Expect Hamlin’s Odds to Shorten

While Logano is getting the early love, I wouldn’t be surprised if Hamlin pulled even or became the favorite. He’s not only the defending champ but he has a solid track record in NASCAR’s first official race of the season.

As mentioned, Hamlin won last year but prior to that, finished third in 2018. 2017 was an outlier, finishing 17th, but when you look at the bigger picture, he’s placed fourth or better at the Daytona 500 in six of his last seven starts. That includes two wins and a runner-up in that span.

Busch Will Be Hard to Gauge

I’m a little surprised that Kyle Busch is down the board a little bit at +1100 (fourth in line) because he’s one of the most recognizable names in the sport. Not only that, he is coming off a championship and will probably get some love from the public. The challenge is that the sharps probably know better in this spot.

Busch finished second at the Daytona 500 last year but success at this race has been few and far between for him. He’s finished 17th in five of his last seven Daytona starts. The name recognition probably means he won’t fall too much but he should probably be around +1500 here.

Expect Buescher’s Odds to Shorten

One driver who should see his odds shorten is Chris Buescher. He’s currently at +8000, but that’s probably not taking into account his switch to Roush Fenway Racing. He’s taking over Rickie Stenhouse Jr.’s car, which typically beats expectations at super speedways. His two career wins were at this type of track.

To put things in perspective, last year Stenhouse Jr. was in the range of +2000 to win the Daytona 500, while Buescher was at +3000. Even if you want to say that it’s Stenhouse Jr. that does well and it’s not just the car, then Buescher should still be higher up the board as he was at +3000 on a worse team in a worse car.

However, if you do think that Roush Fenway Racing has good cars on superspeedways, which is a reasonable deduction, then Buescher should be priced near where Stenhouse Jr. was last year. A couple of the Vegas books have him between +4000 and +8000. I would expect that to change.

Who Are The Best Early Bets?

Other than taking a small flier on Buescher (more eyeing him for Top 10 and Top 15 props), I’m mostly just throwing some darts here. I don’t see a ton of value with the big names on the board – especially since three of the past five Daytona winners were unproven drivers who had good equipment (Erik Jones, Austin Dillon and Stenhouse Jr).

I’ll take a flier with Aric Almirola, who is in that same type of profile. He’s currently at +2000 and has a win at Daytona (summer race of 2014). He started eighth last year but got into an accident that took him out of the running. In 2018, he placed 11th. I’d take a small flier with him to win outright and keep an eye on the props when they open up.