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NASCAR First Data 500 Race Odds & Picks

David Golokhov

By David Golokhov in Racing

Updated: April 13, 2020 at 12:43 pm EDT

Published:


Martinsville Speedway before the crowd entered.
The NASCAR playoffs are down to the final eight. Who is the best bet at the Martinsville Speedway? Photo by GalaxyTrooper (Wikimedia) [<a href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0">CC License</a>]
  • The First Data 500 is set for Sunday, October 27th, at 3:00 PM EST
  • The race will take place the Martinsville Speedway in Ridgeway, Virginia
  • Five different drivers have won the last five races here.

The NASCAR playoffs are down to the final eight drivers as the series heads to Martinsville Speedway this weekend for the First Data 500. The race will take place on Sunday October, 27th at 3:00 PM EST.

Joey Logano hasn’t raced well recently, but he is the defending champ at this track and has a good history here. Can he cash in this weekend?

Odds to Win First Data 500

Driver Odds
Kyle Busch +275
Denny Hamlin +450
Martin Truex Jr. +600
Brad Keselowski +700
Chase Elliott +700
Joey Logano +700
Kevin Harvick +1200
Ryan Blaney +1200
Clint Bowyer +2500
Erik Jones +4000
Jimmie Johnson +4000

*Odds taken October 23rd

Bet on Busch This Weekend

Just when you thought that Busch was slowing down, he delivered a third-place finish at Kansas last week to prove that he isn’t going anywhere.

The driver of the No. 18 Toyota hasn’t looked as dominant as he did earlier in the season, but he’s still got it.

YouTube video

Busch has placed in the top six in three of his last five starts overall, including a near victory when he settled for second at Richmond. At Richmond, Busch has a win and five top ten’s in his last five starts – the best average finish in that span.

That’s why he’s worth a look here again.

Good Value With Hamlin

No driver is hotter than Hamlin heading in to the Round of 8. The veteran Joe Gibbs Racing ace is coming off a big win in the Hollywood Casino 400 that marked his third consecutive Top 5 finish.

With five top six results in his last seven starts, he’s someone you can trust to be in contention.

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In terms of his history at the track, Hamlin is a two-time winner here. He thrives at short tracks as his 8.1 average finish on them since the start of 2017 is the best of any driver except for Busch.

Joey Logano For Top 10 Prop

Sticking with former First Data 500 winners, Logano is the defending champion of this race. While the Penske Racing driver really struggled over his last six starts, in some ways it feels as though Logano is due for a big performance this week.

YouTube video

This is one of Logano’s best tracks as he has an average finish of 5.67 here since the start of 2017. He has better finishes at only three other tracks.

Over his last 12 starts here, he has two wins, nine Top 10’s and his two misses are an 11th and a 14th. He’s worth a Top 10 prop this week.

Past Five Winners at First Data 500

Year Winning Driver
2018 Joey Logano
2017 Kyle Busch
2016 Jimmie Johnson
2015 Jeff Gordon
2014 Dale Earnhardt Jr.

Pass on Chase Elliott

After the thrill of barely qualifying for a spot in the Round of 8, don’t bank on Elliott building on that momentum this week in Ridgeway. The driver of the No. 9 Chevrolet is coming off a runner-up finish at Kansas. However, he has finished outside of the Top 10 in three of his last eight starts.

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Over that span, he has just three Top 5 finishes. At Richmond specifically, he has two finishes inside of the Top 10 in his career but in the other seven starts, he’s placed 10th or worse.

David Golokhov
David Golokhov

Sports Writer

For over 15 years, Dave has been working in mainstream media and sports betting. He hosted a station on Sirius Satellite Radio for four years, and is currently a senior writer for AskMen. He's interviewed hundreds of hundreds of high-profile sports stars like Shaquille O'Neal and Floyd Mayweather.

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