NASCAR Cup Series at Darlington Odds & Picks

• NASCAR Cup Series at Darlington takes place on Sunday, May 17th at Darlington Raceway in Darlington, South Carolina
• Darlington Raceway is a 1.366 miles long and is known as the “Track Too Tough To Tame”
• Read on for the odds and best bets for this weekend’s race

After an eight-race hiatus, NASCAR is back this Sunday, May 17th at 3:30 pm EST for the Cup Series at Darlington. The race will take place at Darlington Raceway in South Carolina, which is nicknamed the Lady in Black. Erik Jones won the race the last time the drivers came through Darlington; can he do it again?

NASCAR Cup Series at Darlington Odds

Odds taken May 13

Harvick Looks Good

Few drivers have a better recent history at Darlington than Kevin Harvick. While he’s only won this race once in his last seven appearances, he’s placed no worse than ninth in that same span. He actually struggled at this track early in his career but the switch from Richard Childress Racing to Stewart-Haas has made all of the difference.

2 years ago today, Kevin Harvick won the 2018 KC Masterpiece 400 @ Kansas.pic.twitter.com/Taw8T7mV8O

— Andrew (@Basso488) May 12, 2020

Harvick does have that one ninth-place result at Darlington during his career with Stewart-Haas but his other five results are all in the Top 5. From the group of favorites, he looks like a solid choice.

Keselowksi Should Be in Contention

From the second tier, Brad Keselowksi looks like a strong choice. He has a very strong history at Darlington, which points us in his direction. Over his last two starts at this track, he’s placed fifth and first. Overall, he’s now placed in the Top 9 in four of his last five starts at Darlington.

Brad Keselowski hits fence going out for 2nd practice @NASCAR @bobpockrass pic.twitter.com/AiCTTjF4nB

— ray morneau (@raymorneau03) February 8, 2020

Keselowski was having just a so-so season before the hiatus as he had placed in the Top 11 in three of his four starts. However, he hadn’t placed better than fifth in any race. For his career, this is his second-best track in terms of driver average finish with six Top 10’s and four Top 5’s in 11 starts.

Flier on Erik Jones?

One of the drivers a bit further down the board I’m willing to take a shot with is Erik Jones. He has a very short history at this track – just three starts – but he’s done really well here overall. He’s the defending champ as he won the race here in September of 2019 and has placed no worse than eighth in his three outings.

Erik Jones – 2017 Lilly Diabetes 250

Indianapolis Motor Speedway pic.twitter.com/E8EFy1RMXi

— NASCAR PHOTOS (@NASCARPHOTOS1) May 12, 2020

When you take a look at his entire resume of tracks, Darlington is actually his best. His average driver finish of 4.50 ties Watkins Glen and beats every other track. We should expect another good showing here, which is why I like him for a Top 10 prop.

Pass on Kyle Busch

There’s no question that Busch mostly does well here. He’s finished in the Top 7 in each of his last three appearances and seven of his last eight. The lone miss was an 11th-place result back in 2016. That’s some remarkable consistency. He’s also led a ton of laps, leading for at least one lap in 10 of his 14 career starts here.

https://twitter.com/BaseNascar/status/1260702835290800128

The challenge here is that he hasn’t won this race since 2008. On top of that, he’s the shortest price on the board. Factor in those two things combined that we’re coming off a hiatus and we don’t know how everyone will respond, I’ll pass on him to win outright this week.