Will Trump Declare a National Emergency? Odds Say No

• The United States government shutdown has tied the record for longest standoff
• Republicans and Democrats are at an impasse over Trump’s request to build a wall on the southern border with Mexico
• Trump’s best bet to get his wall is via National Emergency, and he’s likely to do it

The United State government is currently closed for business – at least partially. Friday marked the 21st day of the partial shutdown, which means we’ve tied for the record for the longest standoff in the history of the country and the 22nd day will set a record.

Will Trump Declare a National Emergency?

The impasse is President Donald Trump’s commitment to building a wall along the southern border, and as the two sides (Democrats and Republicans) can’t come to a deal, some people are wondering whether Trump will declare a state of emergency and build the wall through those means.

Why is a State of Emergency Necessary for the Wall?

We’re really in a bizarre political atmosphere these days. Over the last 20 years, many Democrats – including Presidents, have lobbied and voted for barriers, fences and stronger border security along the southern border. However, now that Trump is President, some of those same people are vehemently opposed to it.

Of course, Trump’s tone and rhetoric has made many people question whether this is a racial issue. Trump repeatedly disparaged Mexicans on the campaign trail.

Trump on Mexican immigrants: “They’re bringing drugs. They’re bringing crime. They’re rapists.” https://t.co/nDJeLE8zDx

— Matt Ortega (@MattOrtega) September 27, 2016

At the same time, there is no denying that there is a crisis at the border. Leaving the potential of drugs and trafficking aside for a minute, the issue of unaccompanied children alone is a humanitarian crisis. In 2014, President Barack Obama had to deal with more than 60,000 unaccompanied children arriving at the southern border, which puts everyone in a difficult position.

Of course, most are just looking for a better life and aren’t criminals – as Trump so often suggests – but it’s also a problem to just have this many people walking across the border in an unorganized fashion. Instead of finding a humane, reasonable way to fix immigration and solving this problem, both sides are just digging in to oppose each other and win politically.

Is it Worth Betting Yes?

As you can see, BookMaker has posted the odds on whether or not there Trump will declare a national emergency. While the odds favor “No” quite heavily, there is great value on the “Yes”.

To start, we already have some reporting from The Washington Post and TIME that Trump will use that mechanism.

It is the latest sign that the administration is laying the groundwork for a possible emergency order as negotiations between Trump and congressional Democrats have ground to a halt https://t.co/Pu05CJGxc0

— TIME (@TIME) January 11, 2019

Secondly, this is a political issue so people aren’t going to act logically. Trump wants this wall and so does his base. That will be critical to him for reelection in 2020. The Democrats are vehemently against it and that’s just where we stand now.

At the same time, the shutdown can’t continue as it’s starting to have an impact on Trump’s best path to reelection: a strong economy.

On Friday, JP Morgan lowered their first quarter GDP growth projection from 2.25% to 2.0% due to the shutdown. Right behind that will be sour jobs numbers. The further the shutdown progresses, the lower those numbers will dip.

So the question is, will Trump take the public relations hit by building a wall via a national emergency? For a man who rarely cares about what the left – the media, the democrats or Hollywood – thinks of him, what will he care this time?

Trump has already declared that he has the absolute right to build the wall via National Emergency and even Democrats have agreed that he’s able to do so. It’s just a matter of setting a bad precedent, but considering how many he’s already etched in the record books, what’s one more?

From a betting perspective, there is great value on the “Yes”. Don’t be surprised if it cashes next week.