UK General Election Odds: Boris Johnson Heavily Favored

• With the UK general election just over three weeks away, Boris Johnson is as a heavy -550 favorite to remain Prime Minister
• Johnson took over following the resignation of former Prime Minister Theresa May earlier this year
• Johnson’s biggest rival, Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn, lags as a distant +375 second favorite

With the clock ticking down to the United Kingdom’s general election on December 12, Boris Johnson has emerged as the clear favorite to maintain his residence at 10 Downing Street, sporting short -550 odds to remain Prime Minister in the politics futures at sportsbooks.

Odds to Be UK Prime Minister After Dec. 12 Election

Odds taken on Nov. 19, 2019.

Johnson’s No-Deal Brexit Plans Met with Stiff Opposition

Johnson quickly emerged as the favorite to take over the reins of power in Britain following the resignation of former Prime Minister Theresa May, winning the leadership of the ruling Conservative Party. Beleaguered by a lack of confidence from her own caucus and her repeated failure to negotiate a deal that would facilitate the UK’s exit from the European Union, May stepped down in July, clearing the way for Johnson, a Brexit hardliner, to rise to power.

However, as Johnson soon discovered, making good on his promise to deliver on Brexit has proven to be far easier said than done.

https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1131918251234136066?s=20

The United Kingdom’s exit from the European Union has been met with numerous delays since being approved by a majority of voters in a 2016 referendum. Hobbled by her unsuccessful bid to boost the Conservatives’ majority in the House of Commons after calling an election in 2017, May failed to negotiate a divorce agreement with the EU that could survive a vote in Britain’s fractured Parliament.

"There are a lot of people who want to frustrate Brexit."@BorisJohnson says the #SupremeCourt ruling that his decision to prorogue parliament was unlawful was "not the right decision."

Get the latest here: https://t.co/9AIO3XpiWC pic.twitter.com/mL1tyh3hws

— Sky News (@SkyNews) September 24, 2019

Johnson’s commitment to following through on Brexit, with or without a deal with the EU, has also met with massive opposition. With the target date of October 31 no longer feasible, Johnson had no choice but to extend the deadline on Britain’s withdrawal from the EU for a third time after seeing his attempt to force the matter by proroguing Parliament stopped by the Supreme Court.

Subsequent attempts to settle the matter by calling an election were met with resistance, first from opposition benches, and then from the ranks of his own cabinet. Those struggles quickly made Johnson a leading candidate to be the next world leader to lose his job, sporting short +250 odds as recently as late September.

Conservatives Riding High in Polls

But while a sizeable number of Members of Parliament have made clear their intention to obstruct any plans to bend to the will of the people and withdraw the nation from the pact with its European neighbors that it entered into in 1973, recent opinion polls indicate that Johnson’s Conservatives enjoy strong support among voters, hovering at or above 40%.

The latest from the Britain Elects poll tracker on the eve of the first election debate:

CON: 39.9% (+0.8)
LAB: 29.0% (+0.2)
LDEM: 15.4% (-0.5)
BREX: 7.0% (-0.9)
GRN: 3.2% (+0.3)

Chgs. w/ 15 Novhttps://t.co/m1hoBpI81D#GE2019 #ITVDebate pic.twitter.com/YxQBwsLt4f

— Britain Elects (@BritainElects) November 19, 2019

The Conservatives have enjoyed the benefit of the upstart Brexit Party’s decision to not run candidates in ridings where their presence could split the vote. However, Johnson must remain wary of a possible surge in support for the Labour Party, whose leader, Jeremy Corbyn, sits second in the odds at +375.

Corbyn’s Brand of Socialism Gets Lukewarm Support from UK Business

A consistent opponent to Brexit since before the 2016 referendum, Corbyn has attracted support from an unusual mix of Britons opposed to the country leaving the EU. However, Corbyn has also hurt his own cause, particularly among business leaders, with socialist rhetoric and policy positions that some observers believe could prove far more harmful to the British economy than Brexit itself.

Addressing business leaders in the UK, Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn argues he is not anti-business, but says companies must pay their fair share of taxes.

He was joined at the @CBItweets conference by the heads of the Conservative and Liberal Democrat parties. pic.twitter.com/4NIOdwBQCY

— DW Europe (@dw_europe) November 18, 2019

While Corbyn led Labour to an increase of 30 seats in the House of Commons in the 2017 election, the opinion polls current have Labour stalled at under 30% of support among British voters, putting the party on pace to potentially squander the gains it made in the last vote.

Raab a Potential Successor to Johnson?

Further down the  odds, Dominic Raab joins Jo Swinson at a lengthy +3300. After serving as Brexit Secretary under May until resigning in protest over her handling of negotiations, Raab subsequently took over as Foreign Minister in Johnson’s cabinet. He is an intriguing candidate to emerge as PM in the event Johnson is forced to resign.

“Jeremy Corbyn needed a knockout blow and he failed to land it.”

Foreign secretary, @DominicRaab criticises the Labour leader for failing to say whether he would support Leave or Remain on #Brexit#GE2019
Get live #GeneralElection2019 updates here👉: https://t.co/pGdTeanIU9 pic.twitter.com/ztTwDQjhxo

— Sky News (@SkyNews) November 19, 2019

An anti-Brexit firebrand, Swinson leads the Liberal Democrats, who won just 12 seats in the 2017 election, and continue to lag well back of the Conservatives and Labour at 16% in the latest polls, leaving her well out of contention to become the next resident of 10 Downing Street.

Pick: Boris Johnson (-550)