Trump’s Re-Election Odds Hit All-Time Best at -214; Is There Value Betting on Donald to Lose?

• See new prop on Donald Trump winning or losing the Electoral College and popular vote in November’s election
• Trump won the electoral college in a landslide in 2016 but lost the popular vote to Hillary Clinton
• Trump’s re-election odds have hit an all-time high at -214 on average, make the value on the new prop pretty clear

As the Democratic party gets set for their caucuses on Saturday (Feb. 22), one thing appears evident: Republican opponent and President Donald Trump has a good chance to get re-elected.

Online betting sites have released a four-way Electoral College and popular vote prop. Which option has the most value?

Donald Trump 2020 Election Odds Special

Odds taken Feb. 19th.

Understanding the Implied Probability

Taking a quick look at the odds, you might think that Trump is expected to lose the election. The “Lose Electoral College & Popular Vote” prop is favored at +165. However, if you do the math with the four options – two of which are for him to win and two of which are for him to lose – he’s still expected to win.

BREAKING: Bernie Sanders is soaring and Joe Biden has crashed in national preference for the Democratic primary, new @ABC News/WaPo poll finds—while Iowa and New Hampshire helped clear room for a candidate not yet on the ballot: Mike Bloomberg. https://t.co/I2ciI4bOim pic.twitter.com/lsynMaYn1q

— ABC News (@ABC) February 19, 2020

The two options for Trump to lose at +165 and +1000 have implied probabilities of 37.7% and 9.1%. On the other hand, the two options where Trump wins is 33.3% and 30.8% for the +200 and +225, which adds 64.1%. That coincides with his Presidential Election odds, which have reached an all-time high at -214.

Democratic Party In Tough Spot

The Democratic Party appears to be between a rock and a hard place and either direction they go, it figures to help President Trump. On one hand, Bernie Sanders is the frontrunner right now but he’s best described as progressive or further to the left on the spectrum.

On the other hand, it seems like the other option is fast-rising Michael Bloomberg. He has the money to take on Trump and possibly beat him, but he’s also someone who has been heard saying disparaging comments about African-Americans, members of the LGBT community and women.

Rep. @AOC on Mike Bloomberg: “The power of his money is not disconnected from his stances on stop and frisk because when you have that much money and you purchase elections, you no longer have that sense of accountability to the people who voted for you.” https://t.co/62iQEXgRIG pic.twitter.com/GdKMWK2I5n

— The View (@TheView) February 19, 2020

On top of that, he was a Republican just a couple of years ago and is essentially trying to buy the Democratic Nomination – not even competing in Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada or South Carolina. That doesn’t seem to jibe with the party, which portends to be a party of the working class.

The challenge here is it’s going to be tough for anyone to get behind one candidate. If it’s Sanders, moderates may opt to plug their nose and stick it out with Trump for four more years because Sanders offers huge change. On the other hand, Sanders’ supporters tend to ride or die with him.

Forbes estimates of the net worth of all the 2020 Democratic presidential candidates on the Nevada debate stage tonight:

Bloomberg: $64.2 billion
Warren: $12 million
Biden: $9 million
Sanders: $2.5 million
Klobuchar: $2 million
Buttigieg: $100,000 https://t.co/B6OZ7ALcu8

— Grace Panetta (@grace_panetta) February 19, 2020

If they feel Sanders is going to get screwed by a billionaire who is just buying the nomination or by the party trying to slow his rise (as they did in 2016), they will not vote Democrat. A recent poll showed that of all of the Democratic candidates, Sanders’ supporters are least likely to stick with the party if their nominee doesn’t win.

Trump Probably Wins With Strong Economy

Trump figures to win as long as the economy is strong. All of the recent numbers out of the United States look great but the spread of the Coronavirus (COVID-19) is slowing a number of supply chains in China. If that continues and hits the United States too, that could derail a second term for Trump.

President Trump: "Nearly 6 in 10 Americans say they're better off financially than they were a year ago." pic.twitter.com/RIM01c6Gei

— The Hill (@thehill) February 15, 2020

However, absent of that, incumbents tend to win when the economic numbers are healthy – regardless if the incumbent is a Democrat or Republican.

What’s the Best Bet?

It’s looking more and more like Trump will win in 2020 and while this is a four-way prop, you can bet the middle two options and win regardless of how Trump wins.

At this point, I wouldn’t be surprised if he won the Electoral College and the Popular Vote. Sanders might be a tough sell to moderates and Bloomberg will be a tough sell to Sanders supporters.

I sat on stage behind @BernieSanders when he gave a speech in NYC three weeks before conceding the Dem primary to Hillary. It was painful to watch hundreds of Bernie Bros scream anti-Hillary expletives, wave signs showing her with devil horns, and swear they'd never vote for her.

— Jon Cooper (@joncoopertweets) February 19, 2020

If you’re less comfortable betting Trump to win the Electoral College and popular vote, bet both and he’ll probably cash with one of those options. You’ll win one bet at +200 or more, and lose the other.

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