Trump’s Re-Election Odds Have Never Been Better, Despite Impeachment & Iran Controversy

• Donald Trump’s odds of winning the 2020 Presidential Election continue to improve
• The Democrats don’t have one strong, moderate candidate whom everyone can unite behind right now
• The latest Emerson poll shows Joe Biden’s lead (28%) on Bernie Sanders (25%) is down to just three percentage points

United States President Donald Trump is still tangled in a web of controversies, but as we move to within 10 months of the 2020 Presidential Election, his 2020 election odds have hit -164, on average. This marks the fifth straight time his odds have improved in SBD’s odds tracker.

Donald Trump 2020 US Presidential Election Odds

Trump’s odds have never been better in this election cycle (dating back to January 2018).

Trump’s Odds Continue To Improve

On November 26th, Trump’s 2020 presidential election odds were at +100. Since then, we’ve seen his odds shorten to -110 (December 3rd), -152 (January 6th), -162 (January 16th) and now are at -164.

What’s unusual is that – at least from a distance – he remains mired in controversies like impeachment and the challenges in the Middle East. However, those issues do not seem to be moving the needle for many voters, likely because they don’t affect their day-to-day lives.

People who hated Trump will continue to hate him and try to vote him out. People who support him believe that the Democrats are just out to get him, which means they’ll support him come election time.

If The Economy Is Strong, Incumbents Are Hard To Overcome

The biggest challenge facing any Democrat in the field right now is that the United States economy is in great shape and, typically, incumbents don’t lose if the economy is strong. By almost any metric, the American economy is doing very well right now, which is great news for Trump.

Last month, the University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment showed Americans are more positive about the economy now than they were six months ago. The job market is strong, wages are going up, and unemployment is extremely low – especially among minorities.

Trump is obviously not your usual candidate, so we can’t take these numbers for granted. However, at the end of the day, jobs and the economy is a big issue. If the numbers are good and the Democratic options all want to make big changes, that could push people to stick with the status quo.

Democratic Nominees Are Stumbling

As for the Democratic field, itself, the biggest problem is that no single candidate is standing out as a strong option right now. A number of them have had their moments – from Kamala Harris to Pete Buttigieg to Elizabeth Warren – however, Harris is out, Warren is stumbling, and Buttigieg has plateaued.

Joe Biden, who was supposed to be the easy shoo-in to win the nomination, continues to stumble on the campaign trail. Whether it’s forgetting facts, misspeaking, or just generally struggling in debates, there’s a lot of concern that he doesn’t have what it will take to beat Trump.

As for Bernie Sanders, the math is looking good for him right now. He’s trailing Biden by eight points, but Warren is fading and, if she bows out, her base will almost all go to Sanders. That could very well propel him into the lead. That would only help Trump, but we’ll get to that in a minute.

The bottom line is Biden isn’t running away with this and voters are losing confidence in him every time he makes an appearance. He was at 41.4% in polling last spring; as of right now, he’s down to 28.4% and continuing to fall. This is a big concern because he’s a moderate and, if he can’t bring the party together, that likely means another Trump win.

Sanders, Warren Are Too Extreme, Which Helps Trump

Keeping bias out of it, the fact of the matter is that Sanders and Warren are too extreme for the current Democratic party and far too extreme for the entire country. It doesn’t mean that their platforms can’t work or that they have bad ideas; they don’t. The challenge here is to get people to buy in to earn the votes and they probably won’t get them.

Sanders and Warren offer sizable change to the country and the economy. From taxing the rich to universal healthcare to free tuition, these might all be good ideas, but they are a drastic change to how the country currently operates.

If either of them wins the nomination, you’re going to have Trump, who is obviously not the politest of Presidents, on one hand with a booming economy versus a very left-wing candidate who is trying to convince people that the country needs to change drastically. That is a tough sell.

That’s a big part of why Trump’s odds of winning are getting better. The Democrats don’t have one good, moderate candidate who can unite the entire party. Unless they find one soon, Trump’s odds to win in 2020 will only continue to shorten.