Prediction Market Favors RFK to Be Approved as HHS; Ben Carson Second-Favorite

The predictions markets at Kalshi are aflurry with props related to the Trump administration. One of the most talked-about positions in Trump’s cabinet is secretary of health and human services. Currently, Robert F Kennedy Jr is the frontrunner, with the yes price trading at 81 cents, and the no price at just 22 cents.

Who Will Be Trump’s Secretary of Health and Human Services?

Prices as of January 24 at Kalshi.

Kalshi, which has been in the political prediction markets for several months, has recently started offering select sports prediction markets, as well. While they are different in nomenclature, Kalshi’s “prediction markets” function much like props at a sportsbooks, where users can either buy/bet on a given outcome happening or not happening. Users buy contracts anywhere from 1 cent to 99 cents, and the winners are paid out $1, so the profit margin depends entirely on the price paid for the contract.

Using the HHS markets, above, anyone who buys a Yes RFK contract at 81 cents will profit 19 cents on every dollar.

RFK Jr Favored in Trump HHS Odds

RFK Jr is the obvious favorite to be the Health and Human Services Secretary because Trump has already announced that Kennedy is his nominee. Kalshi actually had a market on whether RFK Jr would be Trump’s HHS nominee, and that market closed with the Yes as the winning side all the way back in mid-November. His confirmation hearing will be on Wednesday, January 29.

With most nominees, that would lead to a much higher price on the Yes side of this market. But RFK Jr is one of the most controversial HHS picks that Trump could have made. The notorious anti-vaxxer is seen as a wildly dangerous HHS Secretary by the vast majority of the left and some on the right, as well.

More problems arose for Kennedy for former Vice President Mike Pence urged lawmakers to vote against his confirmation due to previous support for abortion access.

The confirmation hearing for Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth illustrated that GOPers will break ranks with the President. Senate majority leader Mitch McConnell (Kentucky) along with Senators Lisa Murkowski (Alaska) and Susan Collins (Maine) voted against Hegseth, which created a 50-50 deadlock on his confirmation.

Vice President JD Vance voted in favor of confirming to break the tie.

Carson Seen as Most-Likely Alternative to RFK Jr

If RFK Jr is not confirmed next Wednesday, former Secretary of Housing and Urban Development Ben Carson is seen as the most-likely second-choice for President Trump.

Carson’s name makes sense on this list for two main reasons. The first, as mentioned, is that he was already a faithful Trump cabinet member during his first term in office. Second is that Carson happens to be a retired neurosurgeon. He was appointed the director of pediatric neurosurgery at the Johns Hopkins Children’s Center in 1984 when he was just 33 years old.

No other name on the Kalshi board is trading are more than 4 cents on the Yes.