Over/Under on Joe Biden’s Poll Percentage After Democratic Primary Debates Set at 32.5; No One Else is Even Close

• Joe Biden has a sizable lead heading into the first wave of Democratic Primary Debates
• Biden has struggled as a candidate the other times he’s run for President
• All numbers below are based upon the HillHarrisX Daily poll

The first Democratic Primary Debates will take place on June 26th and June 27th. For some, this will be their first chance to get the spotlight. For others, this will be a chance to separate.

Oddsmakers have props on all of the polling numbers post-debate, so let’s take a closer look to see who is good bet to do well and who is a good bet to falter.

Joe Biden Poll Percentage on July 1st

*Odds taken 06/25/19

Of course, Biden is the front-runner that everyone is gunning for right now. For the most part, he’s had a free and clear path to the no. 1 spot, but he still can’t avoid the basic slip-ups. From the groping scandal to the plagiarism scandal to questions about racism, he can’t seem to get out of his own way. He’s even taken heat from former President Barrack Obama’s campaign manager.

For better or for worse, Biden has made slip ups like this before as he’s simply not a good political candidate. He’s gotten by when he’s been on the stage by himself, but I expect him to stumble here. Candidates should call him out and put him on the spot more. I’d bet under.

Pick: Under 32.5 (-120)

Elizabeth Warren Poll Percentage on July 1st

Warren has been on fire over the last month and I expect her to be one of the people calling out Biden – even though she’s on Day 1 of the debates and Biden is on Day 2. Beyond that, though, she has a lot of plans for the country, which are popular among progressives.

Whether it’s dealing with student debt to abortion to taxing the rich, she not only says a lot of things that make sense but they’re ideas that young people in the party love. I’d bet that she gets a boost from the debates as it will be another time for her to shine. Bet the over.

Pick: Over 7.5 (-120)

Bernie Sanders Poll Percentage on July 1st

Maybe this is just a personal sentiment – we’ll see how things play out over the coming months – but I feel like Warren is surging at the cost of Sanders. They’re both uber progressive, they both say a lot of things that wing of the party likes to hear, and they both have big ideas.

At the same time, while Sanders is much further ahead in the polls, I think this debate brings him and Biden back to the pack every so slightly. Sanders needs a really strong showing here, including going after Biden. Sanders let Hillary Clinton skate on a number of issues in 2016 and that made Bernie look weak.

If he does the same with Biden, he’s going to look weak again and Warren will look like the stronger option.

Pick: Under 13.5 (-120)

Pete Buttigieg Poll Percentage on July 1st

Mayor Pete burst onto the scene with a huge buzz but he’s somewhat plateaued since. He hasn’t had to face much scrutiny, though, so we don’t know how well he’ll hang here. A lot of people still don’t know him nationally but he’s a really sensible, likable candidate. He is a really solid moderate. I would bet that his numbers go slightly up after the first debate.

Pick: Over 5.5 (-120)

Beto O’Rourke Poll Percentage on July 1st

When it comes to Beto, I’m betting the under. To me, he’s a fading star. He was interesting in the Texas state race but he’s been on a decline ever since. His viral moments have been few and far between. I don’t think he’ll get much of a chance to shine at the debates and I don’t think he’ll have a heck of a lot to offer.

Pick: Under 6.5 (-120)

Kamala Harris Poll Percentage on July 1st

Harris is a very strong speaker, so I do expect her to do well at the debates. She’s on the second day with Sanders and Biden, but not having Warren share the stage will give her a spotlight. She’ll be the only female on stage with little-known Marianne Williamson and little-liked Kirsten Gillibrand. Harris has a good opportunity to assert herself, so I’d bet over here.

Pick: Over 5 (-120)