Odds of a Recession in Trump’s First Term Are a Hyper-Short -650
By Robert Duff in Politics News
Updated: April 23, 2020 at 12:00 pm EDTPublished:
- Sportsbooks are offering heavy -650 odds that there will be a recession before Donald Trump completes his first term as US President
- Is a recession in 2020 a foregone conclusion at this point?
- Analysis of the odds and the smart picks to make are offered in the following story
The USA looks to be on a collision course with a recession before Donald Trump completes his first term as President.
That’s based on the opinions of economic experts. It’s also how a prop wager is heavily weighted.
Odds favor a recession before the end of Trump’s inaugural term in the White House as the odds-on -650 favorite. No recession happening prior to the end of Donald’s term is offered at a betting line of +400.
Oddsmakers are offering a second prop wager relating to the odds of Trump completing his first term in the Oval Office. In this instance, “Yes” is also an overwhelming -800 odds-on favorite.
Odds of a Recession During Donald Trump’s First Term
| Outcome | Odds at |
|---|---|
| Yes | -650 |
| No | +400 |
Odds taken Mar. 19.
According to the Bloomberg economic model, the chance of a recession hitting the USA within the year is at 53%. That’s the highest reading the model has registered since the Great Recession of 2009. It’s also a significant uptick from the 24% reading of a month ago.
That 53% reading was based on financial market output during the month of February. Wall Street has endured a terrible month of March. The outbreak of the coronavirus has wreaked havoc on the stock market.
"you have to go back to the Spanish flu epidemic in 1918 for a comparison" to what we're going through now…"it's like an alien invasion…we're going to see a recession the likes of which we haven't seen since World War II" economist Ken Rogoff tells @PaulSolman @NewsHour now
— Judy Woodruff (@JudyWoodruff) March 19, 2020
Bloomberg estimates the chances of a recession hitting in the next 3-6 months between 25-50%. The likelihood of a recession arriving in the next 12 months is given a 50-75% chance.
Bank of America would beg to differ with those numbers. Michelle Meyer, Bank of America’s top US economist, told CNBC on Thursday that a recession had already arrived. She predicted a deep plunge ahead for the US economy. The downturn would include steep job losses, destruction of wealth and a depressing of confidence in the economy as a whole.
A poll of leading economists conducted by Reuters indicated an 80% likelihood of a recession in the US this year.
Even Trump admitted Thursday that the US may be headed for a recession. He predicted that once the coronavirus had run its course, that Americans would witness an immense bounceback in the economy.
Trump Administration officials also asked state governments to delay releasing their latest unemployment numbers, fearful that it would again cause the stock market to tank.
Pick: Yes (-650)
Odds Donald Trump Completes His First Term as President
| Outcome | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | -800 |
| No | +450 |
If there’s one thing that Trump knows how to do, it’s survive.
The Mueller Report was going to do him in.
That didn’t happen.
Impeachment would be Trump’s downfall.
We are going to WIN, sooner rather than later!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) March 19, 2020
This was not the case.
Trump is like the villain in one of those cheesy slasher flicks. You might wound, and often will mistakenly be of the belief that this time, he’s done for. And that’s when he’ll rise again, causing more mayhem, creating further chaos.
At this point, Trump shouldn’t be worried about finishing his first term. He should be deeply concerned, though, about whether he’ll get a second term.
Trump (-116) and Democrat Joe Biden (+102) are running almost neck and neck in the 2020 election odds. As recently as February 24th, Biden was at odds of +6453 to win the Presidency in 2020.
Trump will most certainly finish out his first term. Well, unless he contracts the coronavirus, that is.
Then it’s a toss up.
Pick: Yes (-800)
Sports Writer
An industry veteran, Bob literally taught the course on the history of sports at Elder College. He has worked as a Sports Columnist for Postmedia, appeared as a guest on several radio stations, was the Vice President of the Society For International Hockey Research in Ontario, and written 25 books.
