Next Pope Odds – Yes, You Can Bet on Who Will Be the Next Pope

• Odds on the next Pope have been posted by prediction site Kalshi
• The current favorite is Vatican Secretary of State Pietro Parolin
• See the next Pope odds for all the serious contenders

After the passing of Pope Francis, the College of Cardinals will be charged with electing a new Pope in the near future. The Cardinals will meet in conclave in the Vatican at some point in the next two weeks and won’t leave until a new Pope has been chosen. On Tuesday morning, the prediction site Kalshi posted a market on who the next Pope will be. The current next Pope odds favor the Vatican’s number-two under Francis, Vatican Secretary of State Pietro Parolin, but he’s not a heavy favorite.

Kalshi offers both “Yes” and “No” options on all markets, and also provides an overall percentage chance based on recent trading activity. The table below lists the “Yes”, “No”, and percentages for all Cardinals who are given more than a 1% chance at Kalshi.

Next Pope Odds

Parolin is trading at 34¢ to become the next Pope which is significantly more than second-favorite Luis Antonio Tagle of the Philippines but still only amounts to roughly a 1-in-3 chance. Only one other Cardinal, Peter Turkson of Ghana, has a “Yes” price in double-digits.

If you are new to Kalshi and/or the concept of trading, every “Yes” contract you purchase will pay out $1 if the market settles as “Yes” and zero dollars if the market settles as “No”. (Same for “No” contracts.) So each “Yes” contract on Parolin at 34¢ would profit 66¢ if he is elected the next Pope. Each “No” contract on Parolin at 67¢ would profit 33¢ if anyone else is elected Pope.

Who Is Pietro Parolin?

Pietro Parolin is a 70-year-old from Schiavon in northern Italy. He was appointed the Vatican Secretary of State, the second-most powerful office in the Vatican, in October 2013 by Pope Francis and has served in that post since.

Parolin isn’t just among the favorites because of his high-ranking position within the Vatican; he is seen by many as a logical choice given his centrist/moderate views. Pope Francis skewed to the liberal end of the Catholic church, welcoming LGBTQ people to the Vatican, promulgating environmentalism, and railing against capitalism (though he was still opposed to both marriage equality and abortion rights).

Parolin is considered to be a more middle-aisle Cardinal who could bridge the gap between the liberal and conservative factions within the College of Cardinals. But if you are a “trends” kind of bettor, it’s been nearly 100 years since the Secretary of State became Pope (Pius XII).

Luis Antonio Tagle Is the Logical Successor to Francis

If the College of Cardinals wants the church to continue in the direction Pope Francis was leading it, then Luis Antonio Tagle is their guy. He was aligned with Francis’ more progressive/liberal views, and would likely prove an even more liberal leader than the late Pope.

That’s far from a sure-fire sales pitch, though. This is the Catholic church, after all, and it is still filled with conservative old men. The two Peters on the list, Peter Turkson of Ghana and Peter Erdo of Hungary, would both be a big step back towards conservatism. The fact that they’re both trading among the top-five favorites is a telling sign that Francis’ liberal bent was opposed by many within the College.