Michigan Primary Odds Heavily Favor Biden, But Sanders Is Campaigning Hard

• Joe Biden is heavily favored to win Michigan in the Democratic Primary on Tuesday, March 10th
• Sanders pulled a shocking upset in Michigan in 2016 when he defeated Hillary Clinton, who was up 27 percentage points in the last polls
• Does Sanders have another stunning result in him or will Biden win this as expected?

The Bernie Sanders campaign has canceled events in Mississippi and shifted its full focus to the state of Michigan. That’s because it’s the big prize from the six states voting on Tuesday, March 10^th. Despite ramping up his efforts, Sanders is still a big underdog to Joe Biden.

Can Sanders turn the tide or will Biden’s momentum lead to another big win for him? Let’s take a closer look at Michigan.

2020 Michigan Primary Odds

Odds taken Mar. 6

Sanders Is In Trouble

It’s hard to believe just how quickly the momentum has shifted in the Democratic primary race. A week ago, Sanders was in great shape to win the most delegates before the convention and was looking towards have a lead after Super Tuesday. Instead, he got smoked on Super Tuesday and might get blown out of this race in a couple of weeks.

National @MorningConsult Poll On Who Voters See Has The Best Chance Beating Trump

Biden 51%
Sanders 28% pic.twitter.com/yNaXIrU2uW

— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) March 6, 2020

A lot of it will come down to Michigan as Sanders has to show that he can cobble together some kind of coalition. The state came through for him in 2016 when he beat out Hillary Clinton but he’ll need a similar, stunning result if he’s to make this a race. The Democratic nomination odds indicate this won’t be much of a race, though.

Which Polls Do You Trust?

One of the most surprising results from Super Tuesday that nobody talks about was just how bad the polling was. We saw this with Donald Trump in 2016 and it looks like polls are still a complete gong show. Most polls showed Sanders either winning or hanging tough in all states; instead, he lost almost everything except California.

So which polls do you trust for Michigan? Some older YouGov polls from mid-February showed Sanders up nine percentage points in Michigan. More recent polling showed Biden ahead by seven percentage points. That was also before Super Tuesday, so that might undersell Biden’s momentum right now.

2020 head-to-heads from Fox News poll:

Biden 49%, Trump 41%
Sanders 49%, Trump 42%
Bloomberg 48%, Trump 40%
Warren 46%, Trump 43%
Buttigieg 45%, Trump 42%
Klobuchar 44%, Trump 43%

— Ryan Struyk (@ryanstruyk) February 28, 2020

And also, keep in mind that we don’t really have any Biden versus Sanders polls as most still have Michael Bloomberg, Elizabeth Warren, Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar in the mix. However, it’s worth reiterating that polls aren’t accurate. In 2016, the last poll before the Michigan primary showed Clinton up 27 and Sanders won the state.

What’s The Best Bet?

Your best bet with this prop is not to bet it. I do expect Biden to win here but I wouldn’t lay -600 or -650 with him. If he wins, it should be a small win here, so I’m not expecting Sanders to get blown away. The challenge is that Biden doesn’t have to do any debates or interviews before the Tuesday vote. That’s usually where he hurts himself.

NEW: As the field clears, @JoeBiden posts a 16-POINT lead over @BernieSanders among Democratic primary voters.

Biden: 54%
Sanders: 38%
Gabbard: 2%https://t.co/7aCBJjFJWb pic.twitter.com/NuOl0nxAj1

— Eli Yokley (@eyokley) March 6, 2020

Absent of a chance to slip up, I don’t think he’ll do poorly in Michigan. At the same time, Sanders did really well in Michigan in 2016 and the unions love him. He’s strong on trade deals and against outsourcing, which should help. Most of the polling we’ve see in favor of Biden – both nationally and in Michigan – is similar to what we saw with Clinton in 2016.

Sanders could pull this off and we’ve seen him pull a miracle of even bigger proportions in 2016, so that’s why I wouldn’t lay the big juice.

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