Latest Canadian Election Odds & Projected Seats for Liberals, Conservatives, NDP, Greens
By Sascha Paruk in Politics News
Published:
- The 2025 Canadian federal election takes place today (Monday, April 28)
- The Liberals are favored to win the most seats, which is a massive change from a few months ago
- See the latest Canadian federal election odds
The 2025 Canadian federal election takes place on Monday, April 28, with the final polls closing at 7:00 pm PT. When I last covered these odds in mid-January, Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives were massive favorites to win the most seats, sitting at -4000.
What a difference three months make.
In the wake of Donald Trump winning the US election and making “51st state” comments, anti-Conservative sentiment surged across Canada and the Liberals – who have won three consecutive elections – were the sole benefactor. Now led by Mark Carney, who won the Liberal leadership race in early March, the Liberals are -405 favorites to be sworn in as the next government.
Canadian Election Odds (2025)
On the morning of voting day, Mark Carney and the Liberals are huge -405 betting favorites to be sworn in as the next government and -220 to win the popular vote. That amounts to an 80.20% implied probability to form the next government and a 68.75% implied probability to win the popular vote. Poilievre’s Conservatives are now +270 longshots to form the next government (27.03%) and +150 to win the popular vote (40.00%).
SPORTSBOOK
Odds as of 12:45 pm ET at FanDuel Ontario.
Generally, the party that wins the most seats is sworn in as the next government. But, if no parties win a majority of the 343 seats available in the House of Commons, one party will have to form a minority government via coalition with an opponent (i.e. their own seats plus the seats of the other coalition member equal a majority).
The Liberals have had a minority government since 2019. Five seats have been added to the House of Commons in this election cycle (in Ontario, Alberta, and BC), increasing the number from 338 in the 2021 federal election to the current number of 343.
In the 2021 election, the Liberals won 160 seats (10 short of the 170 need for a majority at the time) while the Conservatives formed the official opposition with 119 seats. The Bloc Québécois won the third-most seats (32) while the NDP won 25 and the Greens two (both in on Vancouver Island in BC).
Popular Vote in 2021 Canadian Election
In 2021, the Liberals won 49 more seats than the Conservatives without winning the popular vote. The Conservatives, led by Erin O’Toole at the time, won 33.7% of the national vote compared to 32.6% for Trudeau’s Liberals.
The latest polls from the CBC ahead of the 2025 election showed the Liberals at 42.8% support nationally, 3.6 points ahead of the Conservatives at 39.2%. The NDP had sunk to 8.1%. Back in January, the Conservatives were sitting at 44.2%. At that point, the Liberals were a distant second at 20.1%, polling fractionally ahead of the NDP at 19.3%. Based on those numbers, the Conservatives were expected to win a landslide majority with 227 seats. The Liberals weren’t even favored to be the official opposition; the Bloc was the -195 favorite to win the second-most seats.
Projected Outcome of 2025 Canadian Election
The latest seat projections from 338canada.com have the Liberals winning a majority with 186 seats, followed by the Conservatives at 124, the Bloc at 23, the NDP at nine, and the Greens at just one. The projections at CBC are slightly different: 189 for the Liberals, 125 for the Conservatives, 23 for the Bloc, five for the NDP, and one for the Greens.
Managing Editor
Sascha has been working in the sports-betting industry since 2014, and quickly paired his strong writing skills with a burgeoning knowledge of probability and statistics. He holds an undergraduate degree in linguistics and a Juris Doctor from the University of British Columbia.
