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Kamala Harris Heavily Favored in Democratic Nomination Odds; Kelly, Shapiro Early Favorites in VP Odds

Sascha Paruk

by Sascha Paruk in Politics News

Updated Jul 23, 2024 · 8:37 AM PDT

Sen. Mark Kelly shaking hands with supporters
Sen. Mark Kelly greets attendees before giving his victory speech at Barrio Café on Nov. 12, 2022, in Phoenix.
  • The latest Democratic nomination odds heavily favor Vice President Kamala Harris replacing Joe Biden on the ticket; former First Lady Michelle Obama is a distant second-favorite
  • The early Democratic VP odds list Mark Kelly, Josh Shapiro, and Roy Cooper as the three main contenders
  • See the odds to win the 2024 Democratic nomination roughly 24 hours after Joe Biden abandoned his re-election campaign

A tumultuous 48 hours has led to complete upheaval in the odds to win the Democratic nomination for the 2024 Presidential Election. On Sunday, incumbent Joe Biden announced he was leaving the race and endorsing his Vice President, Kamala Harris, as his replacement on the ticket.

Biden had already secured enough delegates in the Democratic primary process to win the nomination, but those delegates are not automatically pledged to Harris. Regardless of the endorsement, Biden’s withdrawal from the race frees his delegates to support anyone who gains enough delegate signatures at the Democratic National Convention (300) to appear on the nomination ballot.

That said, oddsmakers are signalling that the result is all but certain. CNN reported on Tuesday that more than half of the delegates have already signalled their support for Harris.

Updated Democratic Nomination Odds

Candidate Odds
Kamala Harris -3300
Michelle Obama +1400
Hillary Clinton +3300
Gavin Newsom +8000
Gretchen Whitmer +15000

Odds as of July 23 at bet365. US residents are not permitted to bet on the American political markets at bet365. 

Harris became a heavy favorite the day Biden announced he had contracted COVID, shortening to -200 in the 2024 Democratic nominee odds. She improved to -400 when Biden officially dropped out on Sunday, then to -900 on Monday.

As of Tuesday morning, she was a stunningly short -3300 to lead the Democratic ticket against Donald Trump and JD Vance on Nov. 5. Her odds to win the presidential election have also shortened to +175, while Trump, who was as short as -275 less than a week ago, has faded to -188.

The big question now becomes: who will the current VP choose as her own running mate?

Democratic Vice President Nominee Odds 2024

Candidate Odds
Mark Kelly +137
Josh Shapiro +250
Roy Cooper +400
Andrew Beshear +1000
Pete Buttigieg +1200
Tim Walz +3300
Jay Robert Pritzker +3300
Hillary Clinton +3300
Michelle Obama +3300
Gretchen Whitmer +5000
Gavin Newsom +5000
Wes Moore +5000
Kamala Harris +8000
Cory Booker +12500

The early odds to be (presumably) Harris’ running mate show three clear favorites at the top of the board: Arizona Senator Mark Kelly, a former Navy captain and astronaut, who is favored at +137; Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro, who is the +250 second-favorite; and North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper, who is listed as the +450 third-favorite.

The other legitimate contenders, at least according to oddsmakers, are Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear at +1000, and Secretary of Transportation and former South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg at +1200.

No one else on the list is shorter than +3300.

 

 

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