Early Odds Favor Conservative Party Winning Next Canadian Federal Election

• Sportsbooks list the Conservative Party as -125 favorites to win the next Canadian federal election
• The Liberal party earned a minority government in the Oct. 21 election with 157 seats
• Sportsbooks are also offering a prop wager on the date of the next election

The Liberals won the battle in the Oct. 21 Canadian election. That didn’t earn the party a mandate, though.

The Conservatives captured the popular vote 6,155,662 to 5,915,950 over the incumbent Liberal Party. However, it was the Liberals who won more seats in Parliament (157-121). That earned Justin Trudeau a second term as Prime Minister, albeit in charge of a minority government.

One sportsbook believes that situation will change the next time Canada goes to the polls. The sportsbook is out with its first betting line since the vote. It’s offering odds on the Conservatives as -125 favorites to form the next Canadian government.

Conservative Stephen Harper won three straight elections from 2006-11 before losing to Trudeau in 2015.

Odds To Win Next Canadian Federal Election

Odds taken on October 25, 2019.

Trudeau’s victory marked the ninth time since 1960 that Canadians have gone to the polls and elected a minority government. In the seven votes that followed the forming of the minority government, the incumbent party was again given a mandate in four of the following elections.

That included Harper’s Conservatives. They won consecutive minority governments in 2006 and 2008 and then a majority mandate in 2011. Lester Pearson kept the Liberals in power with back-to-back minority governments in 1963 and 1965.

Thank you, Canada, for putting your trust in our team and for having faith in us to move this country in the right direction. Regardless of how you cast your vote, our team will work hard for all Canadians.

— Justin Trudeau (@JustinTrudeau) October 22, 2019

The Conservatives best hope that Trudeau doesn’t emulate his father. Like Justin, Pierre Trudeau won a Liberal majority the first time he led the party in 1968. But he was reduced to a minority government in 1972, the second time Canada went to the polls, winning by a scant 109-107 margin.

The elder Trudeau rebounded to win a majority government in 1974.

Conservatives John Diefenbaker (1962) and Joe Clark (1979) and Liberal Paul Martin (2004) lost the next ballot following their election to head minority governments.

Scheer Incompetence?

There are some critics of the Conservative Party who refer to it as a cult. If this were the case, it certainly doesn’t appear to be a cult of personality.

The inexperienced Trudeau presented the Conservatives a plate full of gaffes and missteps to to weaponize against him and his party. There was the ethics violations of the SNC Lavalin scandal. The embarrassing photos of a young Trudeau in blackface and brownface.

The Conservatives responded by presenting Andrew Scheer to Canadians, and Canada said no thanks.

We will be ready, when the time comes and his government falls, to take the fight back to Justin Trudeau – and give Canadians the government they need to get ahead.#cdnpoli pic.twitter.com/8KapFsTGbx

— Conservative Party (@CPC_HQ) October 25, 2019

There was his little white lie about being an insurance broker (he wasn’t). His major faux pas of hiding his American citizenship while having criticized other prominent Canadian officials for holding dual citizenship. Scheer was also vague about his opinions on abortion and same-sex marriage.

Worst of all, he always seem to have his guard up. It was as if he didn’t want to let Canada behind the curtain to see who he really was.

2/4 to @AndrewScheer this was your election to win, and you failed. Conservatives now should choose a new leader. Preferably a strong woman from your caucus. There are a number to choose from.

— Bill Hutchison (@bill_hutch15) October 22, 2019

This election was there for the taking, and Scheer fumbled on the goalline.

If the Conservatives want to win the next election, they need to find a new leader.

Preferably one with a personality.

Pick: Liberal Party (EVEN)

When Will The Next Canadian Federal Election Occur

The Conservatives are regrouping and reassessing where they went wrong. The NDP, tumbling further down the ladder in this election, need some reassessing of their own.

Forward. Avançons. pic.twitter.com/8OkoTP5CrZ

— Justin Trudeau (@JustinTrudeau) October 22, 2019

The NDP seem intent on working with the Liberal government.

Rushing back to the polls appears unlikely.

Pick: After Dec. 21 (-240)