2024 Presidential Election Odds After Biden Exits Race – Trump Favored Over Harris
- Joe Biden has dropped out of the 2024 Presidential Election
- Biden backed Vice-President Kamala Harris as his replacement as the Democratic nominee
- See the updated 2024 Presidential Election odds for Harris, Donald Trump, and others still on the board
After weeks of speculation and mounting pressure from high-ranking Democrats, Joe Biden made it official on Sunday afternoon: he is dropping out of the 2024 Presidential Election, despite winning more than enough delegates during the Democratic primaries to represent the Dems on the 2024 ticket.
Biden vociferously endorsed his Vice-President, Kamala Harris, as his replacement as the Democratic nominee.
In the wake of the stunning – yet seemingly inevitable – announcement, the odds to win the 2024 Presidential Election changed drastically.
2024 Presidential Election Odds
| Candidate (Party) | Odds |
|---|---|
| Donald Trump (GOP) | -200 |
| Kamala Harris (Dem) | +225 |
| Hillary Clinton (Dem) | +1800 |
| Michelle Obama (Dem) | +2000 |
| Gavin Newsom (Dem) | +3000 |
| Gretchen Whitmer (Dem) | +3000 |
| Robert Kennedy Jr (Independent) | +5000 |
| JD Vance (GOP) | +8000 |
| Josh Shapiro (DEM) | +8000 |
Odds as of July 21 at bet365. The bet365 political futures are not available to US residents but new users can still check out the bet365 promotions.
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Biden announced his decision on X at 2:13 pm ET on Sunday afternoon.
My fellow Democrats, I have decided not to accept the nomination and to focus all my energies on my duties as President for the remainder of my term. My very first decision as the party nominee in 2020 was to pick Kamala Harris as my Vice President. And it’s been the best… pic.twitter.com/x8DnvuImJV
— Joe Biden (@JoeBiden) July 21, 2024
Odds Move Towards Harris, Democrats After Biden Drops Out
Donald Trump had been a -225 favorite to win a second, non-consecutive term before Biden dropped out of the race. As of Sunday morning, the former President is -200 to win. Harris’ odds had faded to +800 early last week when Biden was adamant he was going to stay in the race despite obvious mental-health issues. But on Sunday, her odds took a gigantic leap to +225 (which is much shorter than Biden’s most-recent price of +525).
The Democrats also received a big shot in the arm in terms of the winning-party odds. They were listed at +225 at bet365 on July 14, and now are only slight +150 underdogs (40% implied win probability).
When Will Democratic Nominee Become Official?
This is an unprecedented situation for the Democrats to be in. The party’s official nominee for the 2024 election won’t be decided until the Democratic National Convention on Aug. 19th to 22nd. Biden’s endorsement of Harris does not automatically pledge the delegates he won during the primaries to her nascent campaign. That said, in the immediate aftermath of Biden’s exit, Harris’ odds to win the Democratic nomination shortened to -400 (80% implied win probability).
In the coming days and weeks, it will become more clear whether any other Democrats intend to make a serious challenge for the nomination.
In the view of oddsmakers, Hillary Clinton (+1800) is seen as the most-likely challenger, though it’s difficult to see the Democratic Party nominating the very same person who lost to Trump in 2016. Former First Lady Michelle Obama (+2000) is currently fourth in the 2024 Presidential Election odds. Obama has never stated any intention to seek public office.
At the Republican National Convention last week, a Trump accepted the GOP nomination and named Ohio Senator JD Vance as his running mate.
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Sascha has been working in the sports-betting industry since 2014, and quickly paired his strong writing skills with a burgeoning knowledge of probability and statistics. He holds an undergraduate degree in linguistics and a Juris Doctor from the University of British Columbia.
