USA vs Finland Prediction, Pick & Odds for 4 Nations Faceoff

• Team USA is a -335 moneyline favorite in their first game of the 4 Nations Face-Off against Finland Thursday night in Montreal

• In the short round-robin format, the Americans’ edge in goal with Vezina Trophy favorite Connor Hellebuyck could be key

• Check out our prediction for USA vs Finland and key storylines to know

On Day Two of the 4 Nations Face-off, it’s Finland vs. USA at Bell Centre in Montreal at 8 p.m. ET.

The event is the NHL’s attempt to replace the All-Star game with a four-team international tournament, billing itself as the first best-on-best event since the World Cup of Hockey in 2016.

Each of the four teams will meet in the round-robin style event, with the two finalists meeting in Boston on Thursday, Feb. 20 at TD Garden.

USA vs Finland Odds

Team USA is -335 moneyline favorites to beat the Finns and are laying 1.5 goals. The over/under total is 5.5, which seems a bit low for all of the offensive talent that will be on the ice.

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The Public’s Favorite Play

Before we offer our prediction, let’s take a peak at who the public is taking in this game. According to data from DraftKings Sportsbook, bettors like Finland’s Roope Hintz to light the lamp as a +550 anytime goalscorer longshot. Hintz is the most bet player prop at the top-rated sporting app.

USA vs Finland Prediction

• Team USA -1.5 (-122) at FanDuel

Team Finland is considered the weakest team of the four by the sportsbooks. FanDuel has them +1000 to win the Face-off, with Canada and the USA basically as the co-favorites.

The Finns are coached by Antii Pennanen, who guides a team in the outstanding Finnish Hockey League, but has never coached in the NHL. Team Finland has four players from the Florida Panthers (Florida has the most players competing with eight), including two-time Selke Winner Aleksander Barkov.

Mikko Rantanen was just traded from the Avalanche to the Carolina Hurricanes, and he’s now wearing the blue and gold of Team Finland. He might be the best offensive threat for Team Finland. He has an NHL-best three hat tricks this season and is ninth in points at 66.

None of the Finnish goalies are that impressive on paper, and in a short tournament like this, you know a hot goalie is going to be important. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen (Sabres) has allowed over three goals a game this season. Kevin Lankinen (Canucks) has the best numbers with a .905 save percentage. Juse Saros (Preds) leads the league in losses with 23.

Advantage USA.

Hellebuyck should certainly get the nod in net for the red, white and blue. He leads the league in wins at 34, saves (1,099) and goals against average (2.06). The Michigan native has allowed nine goals in his last three games, though, but they’re all wins.

Team USA should get offense from Jack Eichel (Vegas). He has 19 goals and 50 assists. Auston Matthews (Leafs) probably won’t get many cheers in Montreal. He’s had another solid season with 20 goals.

Veteran Penguins coach Mike Sullivan will be standing behind the Team USA bench. He’s the only American-born coach to win the Stanley Cup more than once (2016 and 2017), but it must be said that the Penguins look like they’re about to miss the playoffs for a third straight year. Can he inspire this talented squad?

In a format like this, every shift will be important. The over/under total smells low, because you always think of offense in an event like this (the 2016 World Cup of Hockey averaged eight goals a game), but there may not be a lot of offensive chemistry established yet between teams with limited practice time.

Finland may have an advantage there, and having four players all from the Panthers could be an important factor, but this looks like a game Team USA should win comfortably.