Carlson Catches Burns in Norris Trophy Odds
By Sascha Paruk in NHL Hockey
Updated: April 2, 2020 at 3:57 pm EDTPublished:
- The Capitals’ John Carlson has become the Norris Trophy co-favorite along with the Sharks’ Brent Burns at +450
- San Jose’s other Norris contender, Erik Karlsson, has faded to +1100
- Looking deeper at the statistics, there’s value further down the list.
Two months into the NHL season, the 2019 Norris Trophy odds have seen a great deal of movement. At our last check-in, Brent Burns was the favorite at +600. While he has continued his strong season and seen his odds get even shorter, he now he has company at the top.
Here’s where the odds for the top-ten favorites currently stand at online sportsbooks.
Odds to Win the 2018-19 Norris Trophy
| Player (Team) | Odds (Dec. 5) | Preseason Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Brent Burns (Sharks) | +450 | +650 |
| John Carlson (Capitals) | +450 | +1500 |
| Drew Doughty (Kings) | +750 | +900 |
| Kris Letang (Penguins) | +750 | OFF |
| Roman Josi (Predators) | +950 | +2000 |
| Ryan Suter (Wild) | +950 | +3000 |
| Mark Giordano (Flames) | +1100 | OFF |
| Victor Hedman (Lightning) | +1100 | +400 |
| Erik Karlsson (Sharks) | +1100 | +250 |
| PK Subban (Predators) | +1100 | +1000 |
Carlson is a Deserving Co-Favorite
Carlson deserves to be up there with Burns as the favorite at this point, if not ahead. He is tied with Burns and Morgan Rielly for second in scoring among defensemen (29 points). He also has a much better +/- (+15 for Carlson vs -3 for Burns) and logs more minutes (25:34 for Carlson vs 23:37 for Burns).
On top of that, Carlson’s Capitals lead the Metro with 33 points in 26 games, while Burns’ Sharks are off to a disappointing start, sitting third in the weak Pacific division with 31 points in 28 games (plus a -4 goal difference on the year).
Doughty’s Odds Should Be Longer
Do not bet on Drew Doughty at this point. His odds are only this short because of his name. While he’s logging an NHL-high 26:49 per night, he’s also -8 for a terrible Kings team. Plus/minus isn’t a great stat since it doesn’t account for quality of competition. But almost all of the defensemen listed above are playing against opponents’ top lines, night in and night out.
Calgary’s Mark Giordano is the Value Bet
Giordano is top five among defensemen in points and plus/minus. He is also driving play about as well as anyone on this list, boasting the second-best Fenwick (56.3%) among the top-ten Norris contenders, trailing only Erik Karlsson (57.7%)
His Flames, meanwhile, are first in the Pacific Division and have a +15 goal difference, third-best in the Western Conference. Despite having David Rittich and a regressing Mike Smith between the pipes, they are allowing just 2.8 goals per game. That’s a testament to the defense corps. Giordano leads all Flames in ice-time at 24:27, three minutes more than his closest teammate (TJ Brodie).
Managing Editor
Sascha has been working in the sports-betting industry since 2014, and quickly paired his strong writing skills with a burgeoning knowledge of probability and statistics. He holds an undergraduate degree in linguistics and a Juris Doctor from the University of British Columbia.
