Lightning vs Leafs Game 1 Odds and Picks
By Robert Duff in NHL Hockey
Published:
- The Toronto Maple Leafs are -125 home favorites to win Game 1 of the Stanley Cup Eastern Conference opening-round series over the Tampa Bay Lightning on Monday, May 2
- Toronto has lost Game 1 of the playoffs on home ice in each of the past two seasons
- See the Game 1 Lightning vs Leafs odds below plus betting picks
Facing off against the Tampa Bay Lightning to open the Stanley Cup playoffs, for the Toronto Maple Leafs it’s reminiscent of the documentary series that the team was featured in earlier this season.
It was called All Or Nothing and when the Leafs clash with the defending Stanley Cup champions in the postseason, it’s proven to be exactly that for the club. This is Toronto’s 17th playoff series facing the defending champs. The Leafs are 3-13 in this scenario. However, in each of those three series triumphs, Toronto ended up carrying on to win the Stanley Cup.
As for Game 1 of this best-of-seven set with the two-time reigning champion Lightning, oddsmakers are all in on the Maple Leafs. Toronto is set as a -125 home favorite. However, the Leafs are just 3-7 straight up in their last 10 playoff games played in their home rink.
Lightning vs Maple Leafs Odds
| Game Time (ET) | Team | Moneyline | Puck Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monday May 2 | Tampa Bay Lightning | +105 | +1.5 (-230) | O 6.5 (+100) |
| 7:30pm | Toronto Maple Leafs | -125 | -1.5 (+190) | U 6.5 (-120) |
Odds as of April 28th at Caesars Sportsbook.
The puck is scheduled to drop at 7:30 pm ET at Scotiabank Arena. ESPN2 is carrying the broadcast.
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Lightning vs Leafs NHL Betting Trends
Even though they are first-round opponents, NHL betting lines show that the Leafs and Lightning are both among the top contenders in the Stanley Cup odds. Toronto is the fourth choice in this betting market at +900. Tampa Bay (+1100) is just behind the Buds in fifth spot.
Jon Cooper says this series between the Lightning and #Leafs is “a long time coming.”
“I think it’s good for hockey. I think this is two established franchises that have been at the top of their game for a decade now or so.”
— Nick Barden (@nickbarden) May 1, 2022
Based on the odds, the favored Buds are given a 53.9% implied probability of victory in Game 1. As for public wagering splits, 84% of the bets placed against the spread are on the Lightning at+1.5 The moneyline splits are showing 54% of bets are on the Maple Leafs at -125 odds. As well, 86% of the public bets are on the Over of 6.5.
Lightning vs Maple Leafs Recent Results
| Date | Home-Away | Moneyline | Puck Line | Over/Under |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3/10/2020 | Toronto 2 Tampa Bay 1 | TOR | TB | Under |
| 11/4/2021 | Toronto 2 Tampa Bay 1 (OT) | TOR | TB | Under |
| 12/9/2021 | Toronto 3 Tampa Bay 5 | TB | TB | Over |
| 4/4/2022 | Tampa Bay 2 Toronto 6 | TOR | TOR | Over |
| 4/21/2022 | Tampa Bay 8 Toronto 1 | TB | TB | Over |
This series features the NHL’s two most recent 60-goal scorers. Rocket Richard Trophy winner and favorite in the Hart Trophy odds, Auston Matthews scored 60 this season for the Leafs.
Tampa Bay captain Steven Stamkos netted 60 goals in 2011-12.
Tampa Bay vs Toronto Injury Report
The Leafs look as though they’ll have forward Ondrej Kase (concussion) back for Game 1. However, forward Michael Bunting (lower body), a top contender in the Calder Trophy odds, appears to be out. He lasted only 25 minutes during a Sunday practice stint. Defenseman Rasmus Sandin (knee) and goalie Petr Mrazek (groin) are also out for Toronto.
Michael Bunting has departed practice as others stay on. He also skated a bit before practice began with skills coach Nik Antropov. pic.twitter.com/mvuxPjNnsI
— David Alter (@dalter) May 1, 2022
Tampa Bay is without defenseman Brent Seabrook. He’s on IR with a shoulder injury.
Playoff Vasilevskiy a Difficult Foe
Billy Smith. Ken Dryden. Turk Broda. Johnny Bower. Jacques Plante. The list of NHL goaltenders who’ve managed to win three successive Stanley Cups is a short story. Could Bolts puckstopper Andrei Vasilevskiy add another chapter?
Depressing stat:
Andrei Vasilevskiy led the NHL in Goals Saved Above Expected in last years playoffs, with 26.6 GSAx in 23 GP. More than a goal per game.
The 2nd best goalie was Carey Price, with 12.3 GSAx in 22 GP.
If we thought Playoff Price was scary, Vasy is horrifying.
— Buds All Day (@BudsAllDayCast) April 30, 2022
Vasilevskiy’s .916 save percentage this season was the lowest he’s posted since taking over as Tampa Bay’s #1 goalie in 2016-17. Still, he’s the only active NHL netminder with multiple Stanley Cup rings. That can’t be ignored.
Lightning vs Leafs Projected Starting Goalies
| Team | Goalie | Record | SV% | GAA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lightning | Andrei Vasilevskiy | 39-18-5 | .916 | 2.49 |
| Maple Leafs | Jack Campbell | 31-9-6 | .914 | 2.64 |
Jack Campbell’s 2021-22 campaign was a microcosm of his NHL career. He was inconsistent and he battled injury.
Jack Campbell has won season-best 7 straight starts (2.70 GAA, .908 SV%). #LeafsForever pic.twitter.com/DxWSHzjWzU
— Sportsnet Stats (@SNstats) April 20, 2022
He’s never won a playoff series. Campbell has allowed three or more goals in 17 of his last 24 games. But he’s been hot down the stretch with wins in his last seven starts.
Lightning vs Leafs Game 1 Prediction
In a bit of an odd scenario, because the 2020 playoffs were held in a bubble due to the COVID-19 pandemic, Tampa Bay has played 10 playoff games at Scotiabank Arena even though they’ve never previously met the Leafs in the playoffs. The Lightning are 8-2 in those games.
Opposites attract in the #StanleyCup Playoffs when the Lightning and Maple Leafs face off, per @RawCharge. #GoBolts #LeafsForever pic.twitter.com/9LAGXYAeOn
— Channelside Sports Network (@chsidesports) April 30, 2022
By contrast, the Leafs are 3-8 in their last 11 postseason games played on their home ice. They’ve lost Game 1 at home in each of the past two playoff years. They were 1-3 at home in the 2021 playoffs.
Pick: Tampa Bay Lightning ML (+105)
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Sports Writer
An industry veteran, Bob literally taught the course on the history of sports at Elder College. He has worked as a Sports Columnist for Postmedia, appeared as a guest on several radio stations, was the Vice President of the Society For International Hockey Research in Ontario, and written 25 books.
